397
FXUS63 KDDC 241031
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
431 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds will persist through at least the first half of
  Monday, with areas of drizzle. Decreasing clouds are expected
  toward sunset.

- A dry cold front will usher in strong north winds Tuesday.

- A widespread hard killing freeze is expected Wednesday
  morning, in the 20s.

- Dry quiet weather Thursday and Friday with temperatures near
  late November normals.

- Much colder arctic air, the coldest air so far this season,
  arrives this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery at midnight, along with
surface observations, depicted widespread stratus across SW KS.
There were some patches of reduced visibility in fog, but so far
winds have been strong enough to keep the boundary layer mixed,
and the stratus deck off the ground at most locations. Will
monitor for fog development through Monday morning, but have
high confidence the stratus will persist through the first half
of Monday. Areas of drizzle will prevail, as shown by 00z NAM`s
classic light drizzle QPF signature through noon Monday.
Included drizzle and patchy fog in the grids through the morning
hours. The closed midlevel cyclone, obvious on infrared
satellite imagery over southeast Colorado at midnight, will move
slowly east to near Hays by noon. Areas of drizzle and a few
showers will remain probable through noon until the cyclone
moves east of SW KS. After 3pm, subsidence behind the departing
strong shortwave will begin eroding the stratus from west to
east, but this will be a slow process. Given the weakening solar
angle, lowered Monday afternoon temperatures several degrees,
with the expectation that sunshine will be limited through at
least 3 pm. Still, highs in the lower 50s are perfectly normal
for this time of year.

A strong Alberta clipper will enter the northern plains Tuesday,
and the associated dry cold front will sweep through SW KS
around sunrise Tuesday. NBM wind grids are correctly trending
upward for Tuesday`s north winds, but will increase them more,
after coordinating with neighbors. A traditionally windy Kansas
day will unfold, with north winds averaging 20-30 mph. 850 mb
wind fields near 35 kts midday will support gusts near 40 mph,
especially along the preferred US 83 corridor. Afternoon
temperatures will remain near normal, in the lower 50s, but the
wind will make it feel much more uncomfortable.

Models have shown consistency with a 1032-1034 mb cold surface
high settling directly over SW KS sunrise Wednesday. A widespread
hard freeze in the 20s is expected, with teens likely across
the colder locales of the western zones.

Quiet dry weather is expected Wednesday through Friday, as
benign NWly midlevel flow trends zonal by Friday. Both sunrise
and afternoon temperatures will be close to late November
normals.

The message is clear that the coldest air so far this season,
originating from the arctic, will arrive this weekend. Model
timing consensus suggests the intense arctic cold frontal
passage will occur Friday night, with north winds much stronger
than NBM guidance. NBM continues to correctly trend colder as
expected, and now shows nighttime air temperatures in the teens,
and afternoon temperatures remaining below freezing, for many
zones by Sunday. This is far colder than GFS/MEX guidance, and
the colder solutions are preferred. Residents and livestock
producers should prepare for the coldest air of the season
coming this weekend.

Regarding precipitation and potential winter impacts this
weekend, pops in SW KS for Saturday are limited, with most of
the rain showers/convection associated with a strong surge of
gulf moisture, remaining east of SW KS. Most rain will remain
east Saturday, and this is a preferred solution in the cold
season. The strong, but still positively tilted, trough is
forecast to continue to deepen over western North America
Sunday. This positively tilted synoptic pattern favors arctic
air to dump down the high plains, but it suggests there will be
no major winter storm in Kansas. Last several runs of the
various global models and their ensembles have shown some
consistency with a powerful closed cyclone near Los Angeles
around 6 pm Sunday. These solutions would argue for forcing for
ascent remaining west of SW KS, and precipitation would be
limited/insignificant. Indeed, NBM pops for next Sunday are
correctly very low, but any precipitation would take the form of
snow in the arctic air. A major winter storm remains highly
unlikely, but impacts from freezing drizzle/light snow may
possibly impact returning holiday travel next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 431 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Satellite imagery and surface observations at 10z Mon showed
widespread IFR/LIFR stratus persisting across SW KS, along with
some restricted visibility in BR/FG/DZ. High confidence that IFR
stratus ceilings will continue through at least 18z Mon, as the
upper low arrives over the airports. Scattered rain showers are
most probable at/near HYS through midday, otherwise areas of
drizzle will continue. Subsidence behind the departing shortwave
will begin after 21z Mon, with a slow dissipation of stratus
from west to east expected. VFR is expected to return to all
airports no later than 00z Tue. Wind will remain light through
this TAF period, mainly less than 12 kts, variable in direction.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner