


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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581 FXUS63 KDDC 160543 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm with strong south winds Wednesday and Thursday. - Isolated thunderstorms northwest zones Thursday evening, and southeast zones Friday evening. - Fantastic fall Friday with mild temperatures and much less wind. - Cold front arrives Saturday with strong north winds. - Much colder Sunday morning, into the 30s, with the first frost of the season northwest counties. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Midday surface observations showed south winds increasing across SW KS, in response to deepening lee cyclogenesis near Denver. South winds will gust 35-40 mph through sunset. Afternoon temperatures will again be well above normal, well into the 80s. Normal for mid October is 70. South winds will remain elevated tonight, as a low level jet establishes over the plains, downstream of the strong midlevel cyclone ejecting into the central Rockies. South winds near 2000 ft AGL will remain 40-50 mph all night, which will again deter radiational cooling greatly. Temperatures sunrise Thursday will again be well above normal, in the upper 50s and lower 60s with elevated south winds. South winds will return quickly Thursday as soon as the boundary layer is mixed out, after 10 am, with again gusts to near 40 mph. Models show no thermal changes in the lower atmosphere, so lower 80s will again prevail. Most of SW KS will be dry for most of Thursday, but energy from the ejecting Rockies through will brush the northwest zones during the afternoon and evening, and scattered thunderstorms will favor these northwest zones after 4 pm. 12z NAM/ARW continue to show the more robust convective environment remaining in NW KS (WFO GLD`s CWA), but any storm in the northwest zones may produce marginally severe wind/hail per SPC Day 2 probabilities. Effective shear up to 50 kts and CAPE to near 1000 J/kg may support supercell structures, with hail of 1-2 inches in diameter with the strongest cells. Again this threat is focused on Hamilton county and northward into NW KS. Weak surface cold front and weak cyclone will track southeast across SW KS Thursday night/early Friday. This will trim temperatures a few degrees into the 70s Friday, but much more importantly, pressure gradients will collapse for much less wind. A fantastic fall Friday for most. Friday evening, scattered thunderstorms will redevelop along this boundary, across/near the southeast zones. Here again, some storms may be marginally severe, but most activity will favor WFO Wichita/Norman`s CWAs. Models are trending stronger now with the expected cold front passage Saturday, as a strong embedded shortwave dives southeast into Kansas on the backside of the northern plains trough. With the cold front passage timing during the diurnally mixed hours, north wind gusts of 40-45 mph are likely. NBM wind grids are too low for Saturday`s north wind, and per collaboration with surrounding offices, increased toward the 90%ile of the NBM. The first frost of the season looks increasingly probable Sunday morning, as 1025 mb high pressure dives south across the central and southern plains. NBM minimum temperatures are trending downward, into the 30s across northern and western zones. Highest probability of reaching freezing is the climatologically favored northwest zones and the Arkansas valley. Incoming air mass is of Pacific origin, so widespread or killing freezes are not expected Sunday morning. Another rapid warming trend follows, in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday, before another strong but dry cold front crashes through Monday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A surface trough will deepen over eastern Colorado overnight as an upper level trough approaches. This will keep the winds overnight south southeast at 10-15 knots. A 40-45 knot low level jet is already established across southwest Kansas and will persist through daybreak Thursday morning based on SPC Meso Analysis and CAMS. These stronger low level winds winds will mix down to the surface early Thursday which will result in increasing southerly winds to 20 knots, between 15Z and 18Z Thursday. Gusts as high as 35 knots will be possible at times early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and into Thursday. However, scattered convection may develop along a surface boundary west of Highway 83 after 20Z, primarily impacting the Garden City and Hays areas with increasing clouds at 8000-12000 feet AGL. While a few high based storms can not be completely ruled out in the Garden City and Hays areas between 21Z Thursday and 03Z Friday, the probability remains low, at 20% or less. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Burgert