581
FXUS63 KDDC 160543
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm with strong south winds Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Isolated thunderstorms northwest zones Thursday evening, and
  southeast zones Friday evening.

- Fantastic fall Friday with mild temperatures and much less
  wind.

- Cold front arrives Saturday with strong north winds.

- Much colder Sunday morning, into the 30s, with the first frost
  of the season northwest counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Midday surface observations showed south winds increasing
across SW KS, in response to deepening lee cyclogenesis near
Denver. South winds will gust 35-40 mph through sunset.
Afternoon temperatures will again be well above normal, well
into the 80s. Normal for mid October is 70.

South winds will remain elevated tonight, as a low level jet
establishes over the plains, downstream of the strong midlevel
cyclone ejecting into the central Rockies. South winds near
2000 ft AGL will remain 40-50 mph all night, which will again
deter radiational cooling greatly. Temperatures sunrise Thursday
will again be well above normal, in the upper 50s and lower 60s
with elevated south winds.

South winds will return quickly Thursday as soon as the boundary
layer is mixed out, after 10 am, with again gusts to near
40 mph. Models show no thermal changes in the lower atmosphere,
so lower 80s will again prevail. Most of SW KS will be dry for
most of Thursday, but energy from the ejecting Rockies through
will brush the northwest zones during the afternoon and evening,
and scattered thunderstorms will favor these northwest zones
after 4 pm. 12z NAM/ARW continue to show the more robust
convective environment remaining in NW KS (WFO GLD`s CWA), but
any storm in the northwest zones may produce marginally severe
wind/hail per SPC Day 2 probabilities. Effective shear up to 50
kts and CAPE to near 1000 J/kg may support supercell structures,
with hail of 1-2 inches in diameter with the strongest cells.
Again this threat is focused on Hamilton county and northward
into NW KS.

Weak surface cold front and weak cyclone will track southeast
across SW KS Thursday night/early Friday. This will trim
temperatures a few degrees into the 70s Friday, but much more
importantly, pressure gradients will collapse for much less
wind. A fantastic fall Friday for most. Friday evening,
scattered thunderstorms will redevelop along this boundary,
across/near the southeast zones. Here again, some storms may be
marginally severe, but most activity will favor WFO
Wichita/Norman`s CWAs.

Models are trending stronger now with the expected cold front
passage Saturday, as a strong embedded shortwave dives southeast
into Kansas on the backside of the northern plains trough. With
the cold front passage timing during the diurnally mixed hours,
north wind gusts of 40-45 mph are likely. NBM wind grids are
too low for Saturday`s north wind, and per collaboration with
surrounding offices, increased toward the 90%ile of the NBM.

The first frost of the season looks increasingly probable Sunday
morning, as 1025 mb high pressure dives south across the
central and southern plains. NBM minimum temperatures are
trending downward, into the 30s across northern and western
zones. Highest probability of reaching freezing is the
climatologically favored northwest zones and the Arkansas
valley. Incoming air mass is of Pacific origin, so widespread or
killing freezes are not expected Sunday morning. Another rapid
warming trend follows, in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday, before
another strong but dry cold front crashes through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A surface trough will deepen over eastern Colorado overnight as
an upper level trough approaches. This will keep the winds
overnight south southeast at 10-15 knots. A 40-45 knot low level
jet is already established across southwest Kansas and will
persist through daybreak Thursday morning based on SPC Meso
Analysis and CAMS. These stronger low level winds winds will
mix down to the surface early Thursday which will result in
increasing southerly winds to 20 knots, between 15Z and 18Z
Thursday. Gusts as high as 35 knots will be possible at times
early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
overnight and into Thursday. However, scattered convection may
develop along a surface boundary west of Highway 83 after 20Z,
primarily impacting the Garden City and Hays areas with
increasing clouds at 8000-12000 feet AGL. While a few high based
storms can not be completely ruled out in the Garden City and
Hays areas between 21Z Thursday and 03Z Friday, the probability
remains low, at 20% or less.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert