


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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866 FXUS63 KDDC 081614 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1114 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some mid level clouds or perhaps sprinkles early today - Dry and warm rest of the business week - Above normal temperatures over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 A minor disturbance is forecast by some of the deterministic models to move across the state for the first half of today. Really, looking at forecast soundings, it shows that the main impact is low to mid level clouds moving across the FA. Have continued low 15-20% to account for the low chance that this activity precipitates and reaches the ground. Low levels are fairly dry, so feel is that it is prudent to not get too carried away with any high precipitation probabilities. Otherwise, the rest of the FA will remain dry today. Highs today will range from the upper 60s across central Kansas to mid 70s across far southwest Kansas. Lows tonight will remain above normal with values in the mid to upper 50s. Normal lows this time of year are in the upper 40s. For Thursday and Friday, a mid level ridge is expected to expand across the Plains. Increasing 500 hPa heights supports the notion of a dry forecast and warming temperatures. Highs solidly in the 80s looks likely for both days. This is above normal as normal highs this time of year are in the upper 70s. Lows look to be above normal as well with values in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The weekend is looking to be warm. Mid level ridging and low level lee troughing is forecast for this period. The net result is breezy southerly winds and warm highs and mild lows. Highs in the 80s still look on track per the deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts. Very mild lows with values in the 60s are forecast by the NBM, and this looks to be on track comparing to said 00Z model output. Attention the turns to the start of the next business week. There might be enough convergence along a boundary to spark off some showers and/or thunderstorms. Confidence though is low as deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts diverge on this precipitation potential probability at this point in space and time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1108 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Thursday. South-southeast winds around 10 to 20kt are expected through late afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly develops in eastern Colorado, then subside somewhat generally after 23-01Z with loss of daytime heating. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...JJohnson