460
FXUS63 KDDC 041600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1000 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  for the next 10-15 days.

- Afternoon temperatures moderate back to near normal early
  December normals Friday and Saturday.

- The next dry cold front will arrive Saturday night with
  elevated north winds, followed by much colder air Sunday.

- Strong warming trend expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Cold high pressure will slowly shift off to the east today, with
south winds returning. Any morning cloudiness is forecast to
clear out by late morning into early afternoon, allowing
temperatures to reach into the upper 30s to near 40. With
subsiding winds this evening and mostly clear skies, expect
temperatures to cool into the high teens and lower 20s by early
Friday morning.

The upper level pattern is expected to change by Friday to
northwest flow with embedded upper level disturbances, along
with mean upper level troughing over the Great Lakes. This is a
very dry pattern for western Kansas, with any mid level moisture
drying out as it descends the Rockies. Temperatures will warm
into the upper 40s to 50s for Friday and Saturday given sunshine
and the lack of arctic air. An upper level disturbance will
pass across the plains Saturday night, helping to push a cold
front through Kansas. This will result in highs falling back
into the upper 30s and 40s for Sunday. Downslope warming will
allow highs to warm back into the 50s for Monday and 50s/60s for
Tuesday. The ensemble means of the GEPS and ENS have no
precipitation over the next week and measurable precipitation
probabilities are close to 0%; and this makes sense given the
lack of any significant upper level trough development over the
southwestern United States.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations at 16z
depicted widespread IFR stratus persisting across SW KS. The
stratus will erode through this afternoon, but it will take a
while with the weak sun angle, with VFR/SKC expected to return
to all airports by around 21z Thu. SW winds of 10-15 kts will
prevail this afternoon. Excellent flying weather is expected
tonight and Friday with VFR, scattered mid/high clouds, and
light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Turner