420
FXUS63 KDDC 012322
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
  next 7-10 days, through at least December 10th.

- Moderating temperatures back to near normal Tuesday.

- The next cold front brings strong north winds and much colder
  air Wednesday.

- Light snow possible Wednesday night, especially west of Dodge
  City, but amounts will be light and impacts minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Positively tilted trough axis was passing over SW KS at midday,
with the last of the snowbands exiting eastward through central
Kansas. Strong subsidence behind the trough axis will continue
to clear the sky rapidly from west to east through sunset. With
light westerly downslope and sunshine, western zones will warm
well into the 30s this afternoon. Most locations northeast of
Dodge City will fail to get above freezing. Clear and cold
tonight with light winds, and efficient radiational cooling
will produce sunrise temperatures in the teens. Light SWly
downslope will manage to keep a few locations in the 20s.

Arctic air erodes Tuesday as midlevel flow backs to zonal,
allowing for a noticeable increase in afternoon temperatures,
back close to early December normals in the lower 50s. Northeast
zones near Hays will remain in the mid 40s Tuesday as snowcover
melts. After 9 am Tuesday, south winds will increase markedly as
return flow fully establishes, with gusts near 30 mph.

The next dry cold front is scheduled to sweep through SW KS by
sunrise Wednesday. North winds Wednesday will be stronger than
NBM guidance, and 12z MOS guidance is several degrees colder
than NBM on Wednesday as well. Given a 1035 mb Canadian
anticyclone building down the northern plains, over at least
partial snowpack, the colder/windier solutions will likely
verify Wednesday. Per coordination increased winds to the 90%ile
of the NBM and lowered maximum temperatures 2-3 degrees.

Model consensus places the next shortwave near the Four Corners
6 pm Wednesday. This shortwave, already quite weak, is forecast
to weaken further as in enters confluent flow over the plains
Wednesday night and early Thursday. There may be a period of
light snow/flurries in the post frontal environment, favoring
the western zones, Wednesday night. Any snow will be very light,
and many models, including the 12z GFS and many GEFS ensemble
members, are completely dry. As such, NBM pops are necessarily
very low. Given the weakening system and limited moisture, any
snowfall/impacts will be very limited to nil.

Cold surface ridging over SW KS 6 am Thursday will deliver
another cold morning in the teens, although cloud cover should
be considerable associated with the weakening ejecting system,
putting a deterent on radiational cooling potential. The pattern
repeats, with return flow establishing again Thursday
afternoon, but models suggest this will be recirculated
continental polar air, with a cold afternoon in the 30s.

Models fall into disarray with the timing details Friday
through the weekend, but they do agree that 1-2 dry cold
frontal passages will occur during this time. Gulf moisture will
be cutoff from SW KS during this time, so have high confidence
a dry forecast will continue through the weekend despite the
cold fronts. Temperatures and wind direction will flucuate
modestly as the cold fronts pass, but a quiet weather pattern
with no impacts is expected beneath benign NWly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Northwest winds under 10 knots will shift to the south
southwest overnight. This is due to surface pressures falling
east of the Rockies as our next upper trough approaches. As this
next upper wave nears, scattered to broken mid to high level
moisture/clouds will move into southwest Kansas late Tuesday.
Southerly winds will start at about 10 knots at 12Z Tuesday and
increase to around 15 knots by 18Z Tuesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert