563
FXUS63 KDDC 152330
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS
530 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing drier pattern continues through the end of week.

- Unseasonably warmer temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday with the next
  cool down expected Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

WV imagery indicates a relatively weak northwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a trough axis is edging eastward
through southwest Kansas.

Tranquil/drier conditions are likely to continue through the end of the
week as the SREF points to a northwest flow aloft persisting through much
of the time frame, along with periodic frontal/trough passages helping to
further reinforce a fairly dry air mass within predominant downsloping.
Though still below freezing, temperatures will not be quite as cold tonight
as aforementioned downsloping sets up by this evening behind an advancing
surface trough. With the latest HREF indicating a general 60-80% probability
of temperatures dropping below 30F, though less than a 10% probability of
slipping under 25F, expect lows primarily down into the mid/upper 20S(F)
by sunrise Tuesday. A warming trend continues from today into Tuesday
under the influence of persistent downsloping, supporting H85 temperatures
well above 10C. Expect afternoon highs generally in the 60s(F) with the
HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F across
much of southwest Kansas to highs potentially struggling to climb out of
the 50s(F) in south central Kansas where there is only a 40-60% probability
of temperatures topping 55F. Temperatures are forecast to remain generally
above the seasonal average through the end of the week, except for Thursday
when a surge of colder air is projected behind a frontal passage late
Wednesday night, bringing temperatures down much closer to
seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

In general the weather pattern across western Kansas should be quiet and
lead to VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.  A weak
fropa should occur during the morning hours switching the winds to a
west-northwest direction however wind speeds in general should be 12 kts or
less.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Tatro