217
FXUS63 KDDC 051138
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
538 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly to totally dry weather is forecast for the next week to
  10 days, and probably longer.

- Warmer temperatures can be expected today and Saturday,
  followed by a modest cooldown for Sunday and then a warmup
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low level moisture has been stubborn to leave even with
southwest boundary layer winds. Isolated fog existed this
morning; but this will quickly erode with daytime heating.
Expect highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with plenty of sun,
with the warmest readings at Pratt and Medicine Lodge.

Milder weather will persist Saturday, with even warmer highs in
the 50s, along with breezy south winds. An upper level
disturbance traversing the northern plains will push a cold
front through western Kansas Saturday night, resulting in highs
back down into the upper 30s to upper 40s for Sunday.

Zonal to northwesterly mid level flow is expected to persist
next week. Warmer air will mix to the surface and allow
temperatures to rise into the 50s Monday and 60s Tuesday. A
slight cooldown is forecast by Wednesday in the wake of another
dry cold front.

Temperatures next Thursday will depend on the timing of yet
another dry cold front. The EPS ensemble mean is slower and
warmer while the EPS/ICON means are a few hours faster. If the
front is slower then strong downslope flow would allow
temperatures to reach into the 70s. However, a faster frontal
passage would yield highs in the mid to upper 50s to mid 60s.
The latter scenario is more likely given that the timing of
these strong downslope surges has to be just right to yield
maximum warmth.

Temperatures next weekend are going to be tricky as arctic air
will be invading the Great Lakes and eastern United States.
Southwest Kansas will be in between a cold air mass to the
northeast and a very mild air mass to the southwest. Therefore,
day to day temperatures will hard to forecast and will likely
be cooler at Hays than Liberal and Elkhart. Even if cooler air
does sneak farther west, any cold intrusion wouldn`t last long
given the mid level pattern that has a significant downslope
component.

No precipitation is expected over the next 10 days as the EPS
and GEPS ensemble means and 24 hr probabilities are close to 0
inches and 0% chances. Even through 20 December the chances for
measurable precipitation are very low (10% or less).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Any remnant patches of 5SM BR will quickly erode by 14z with
daytime heating and dry advection. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to persist through the period. Winds will shift to
the northwest at 10 kts by 17z and then decrease by sunset with
the loss of daytime heating.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch