250
FXUS63 KDDC 300942
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
442 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds return this afternoon

- Warming trend with temperatures through the end of the workweek

- Generally dry over the next week but there is small chances of
rain and storms (10-20%) late Saturday night and early Sunday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

07Z water vapor and upper air analysis shows a thick cirrus deck
from Pacific moisture streaming through the central and southern
plains associated with a longwave trough moving from southwest to
northeast.  Surface observations show a 1011 mb surface low in
eastern Colorado and south to southeast winds in the boundary layer.

Today as the trough slowly progresses east we should see the upper
level moisture exit the region and the upper level clouds will give
way to sunshine by the late morning.  Southerly winds will also pick
up as the daytime heating mixes out the lower levels and the surface
low in eastern Colorado deepens.  Wind gusts by later this afternoon
will be in the 20-30 mph range.  We should once again see highs
reach into the lower to mid 80s.

Something of interest that is starting to show in the CAMs is
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning another shortwave moving into
western and central Kansas with a LLJ and modest lift that some
light rain showers are developing mainly in north central Kansas.
Given the overall lack of gulf moisture I kept POPs under 10% at
this point.

The upper air pattern evolves from zonal to a weak ridge towards
the end of the workweek and with that the 850 mb winds become more
southwesterly and we are seeing a warming trend.  Winds will
continue to be breezy in the afternoon generally out of the south so
the downslope effect will be mitigated a bit but with overall sunny
skies NBM models are trending at seeing highs around 90 degrees
starting Thursday and greater confidence of 90 degree highs on
Friday.

Long term ensemble trends continue to show a digging trough and
stronger cold front moving into the central plains this weekend.  A
decent cooling trend is starting to show up by October 6th as a
result with highs cooling at least 10-15 degrees.  Also some small
signals of rain are appearing mainly in north central Kansas where
the better lift is shown at this point but given the uncertainty 10-
20% POPs are sufficient mainly late Saturday night through Sunday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

VFR flight category for all airports during the time period. The
thick cirrus should give way to SKC conditions by late Tuesday
morning. Winds will increase after 16Z and we could see gusts
at all airports in the 20-25 kt range between 18-01Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro