541
FXUS63 KDDC 092313
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil/dry conditions continue through end of week.

- After a brief break Wednesday, unseasonably warm temperatures
  return Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of weak ridging aloft located across
the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough
of low pressure is anchored near and along the Colorado/Kansas
line.

Tranquil conditions will continue early in the period as the SREF
shows a northwesterly aloft persisting through the end of the week.
An upper level shortwave trough digging southeast through the Upper
Midwest will send an attendant cold front southward through western
Kansas late this evening/overnight, allowing colder/much drier air
to surge through the region and reinforcing an already fairly dry
air mass throughout western Kansas. This will help keep any precip
chances out of the forecast through the end of the week, especially
as westerly downsloping re-establishes itself late Wednesday once
surface high pressure building in across eastern Colorado early
in the day begins to drop southeast into the Texas Panhandle.

Temperatures above the seasonal average (around 20F) are likely
tonight despite colder air spreading southward into western Kansas
in wake of a cold frontal passage late this evening. The latest HREF
indicates a 60-80% probability of temperatures dropping below 35F in
west central/extreme southwest Kansas to the same probability of
temperatures slipping below 40F in south central Kansas. Considering
expected increased cloud cover, look for lows generally down into
the 30s(F) for much of the area with near 40F in south central Kansas.
The colder air mass will be slow to erode Wednesday as westerly
downsloping develops later in the afternoon with surface high pressure
in eastern Colorado moving southeast into the Texas Panhandle, only
pushing H85 temperatures up near 0C in central Kansas to near 5C
near the Colorado line. Afternoon highs are expected to struggle to
climb out of the 40s(F) across central Kansas and west central Kansas
where the HREF paints less than a 30% probability of temperatures
exceeding 50F to the lower/mid 50s(F) farther south where there
is less than a 20% probability of temperatures reaching above 55F.
Unseasonably warm temperatures bounce back Thursday as west-
southwesterly downsloping returns across western Kansas behind an
advancing surface trough axis, drawing in much warmer air with H85
temperatures pushing 10C in central Kansas to near 15C in extreme
southwest Kansas. Afternoon highs well into the 60s(F) are likely
with the lower 70s(F) not out of the question in some locations
farther west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period through early
Wednesday evening. Winds will increase tonight with the passage
of a cold front that is expected to move southward across the
area. Expect a wind shift from a northerly direction as the
front passes through, generally around 15-20 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots expected. Winds will diminish slightly into
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Bennett