Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
126 FXXX12 KWNP 161231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M3.1 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/0817 UTC from Region 4274 (N25, L=274) from just around the W limb. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were all magnetically simple and either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Other activity included a filament channel eruption beginning after 15/2200 UTC and centered near N45W20. Subsequent coronagraph imagery contained a northern-oriented, narrow CME signature. Modelling of the event is ongoing. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential of old Region 4274 as it rotates further behind the W limb. By 18 Nov, only a slight chance of M-class flares are forecasted. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to trend closer to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels, with a chance to reach high levels, on 16-18 Nov. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could see additional S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 16-17 Nov while Region 4274 continues to transit the W limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued at elevated levels. A transient feature elevated the IMF and solar wind speeds after 16/0100 UTC, which lines up well with the minor enhancements that were anticipated from the periphery of a CME associated with the 14 Nov X4 (R3) flare. Total magnetic field strength increased from ~5 nT to a peak of 16 nT at 16/0515 UTC. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. In line with the IMF, solar wind speeds increased from 550 km/s to a peak of ~720 km/s before gradually decreasing to ~620 km/s by the end of the reporting period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be elevated over 16 Nov. As influence from the transient wanes, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), preceding a negative polarity CH HSS, will likely become geoeffective causing another enhancement in the solar wind parameters over 17-18 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels over 16-17 Nov due to a combination of effects from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated onset of a influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to set in over 18 Nov during the waning phase of the coronal holes HSS.