Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
217 FXXX12 KWNP 011231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3697 (S18E30, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of X-class (R3/Strong) events. The first was an impulsive X1.1/2b flare (R3/Strong) at 31/2203 UTC and the second was an X1.4 flare at 01/0848 UTC; the largest event of the period. Associated with the second event was a 210 sfu Tenflare. Growth was observed in the intermediate spot area of Region 3697 and a delta configuration persisted in the leader spot area. The region also produced numerous C-class flares through the period. C-class flare activity was observed from Regions 3691 (N25W25, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), 3695 (N27W12, Bx0/beta), and 3698 (N22E17, Csi/beta). Region 3691 showed an overall decay trend and magnetic simplification throughout the period. Region 3698 indicated some overall growth, particularly in the leader spots. New Region 3699 (N04W14, Cao/beta) was numbered and exhibited minor growth since emerging. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 03 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 03 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 03 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Total field ranged from 3-6 nT. Prolonged periods of southward Bz reaching -5 nT were observed through the period. Solar wind speed averaged near 350 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominantly negative sector. .Forecast... Flanking influences from the 29 May CME is likely to cause enhancements late on 01 Jun. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on 02-03 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 01 Jun due to flanking effects from the 29 May CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 02-03 June.