Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
352 FXXX12 KWNP 051231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decayed to low levels. Region 4294 (S15W02, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) displayed some minor weakening spot numbers and area where C3.8/Sf and C3.9/Sf were observed at 04/1805 UTC and 05/0011 UTC, respectively. Region 4296 (S14E17, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) showed some very little changes. This region produced a few C-class flares on the 4th, the largest a C6.8/Sn at 04/2324 UTC. C-class activity was observed from Region 4298 (S18W17, Cso/beta) and Region 4299 (N21E22, Dso/beta-delta). Both regions showed little change. New Region 4302 (S04W78, Hsx/alpha) emerged this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed from available LASCO imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares are expected (75%) through 07 Dec, with a chance for X-class flares (30%), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels on 05 Dec. High levels are likely on 06-07 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds associated with the ongoing CH HSS. A slight chance (15%) exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement above 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 07 Dec due to the eruptive potential of multiple active regions across the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from CIR to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was steady at 7-9 nT, while the Bz component was at -8-9 nt early in the period, but -3-4 nT after 04/2000 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to peaks of near 770 km/s early, but slowly decreased to 600-690 km/s after 05/0200 UTC. Phi was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain disturbed by negative polarity CH/HSS influences over 05-07 Dec. An additional enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec due to glancing effects from the 04 Dec CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels due to negative polarity coronal hole influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, over 05-06 Dec as influence from the coronal hole wanes. G1 geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 07 Dec due to the anticipated onset of influence from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec.