Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
216 FXXX12 KWNP 210031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with few C-class flares (smaller than C5.0) from Region 4284 (S07W58, Dai/beta), plage Region 4286 (S15, L=096) and regions beyond the East limb. New Region 4288 (N18E75, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered. Far side eruptions were observed in GOES-19/SUVI 304A and coronagraph imagery, with two ejections from beyond the SE limb associated with radio emissions observed by USAF RSTN stations: a Type-IV sweep observed between 20/0023-0130 UTC, and a Type-II sweep at 20/1459 UTC (estimated speed of 1,196 km/s). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over 21-23 Nov, with a slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels between 20/1040 UTC and 20/1910 UTC, with a maximum flux of 2,883 pfu at 20/1435 UTC, due to the onset of a -CH HSS influences near Earth. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate levels through 23 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in expected to remain at background levels through 23 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the ongoing HSS influences from three negative CHs located in the western solar hemisphere. Around 20/1300 UTC, solar wind parameters began increasing, likely due to the onset of one of the CH HSS. Total IMF reached a peak of 18nT at 20/1423 UTC, while Bz component was mostly positive during the period, oscillating between -10 and 15 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from 330-450 km/s and the phi angle remained predominantly negative. .Forecast... Solar wind is expected to continue to be driven by the -CH HSS influences on 21 Nov. Waning influences are expected on 22-23 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled during the period. .Forecast... Active geomagnetic activity levels are expected early on 21 Nov, gradually decreasing to unsettled to quiet levels between 22-23 Nov.