853
FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Nov 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4274 (N25W11,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.7/2b flare (R3-Strong) at 09/0719
UTC, with associated Type-II (804 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps, and an
F10.7 cm radio burst (360 sfu). The resulting asymmetric halo CME, first
observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0748 UTC off the NNE, is expected to
be Earth-directed with an anticipated arrival around midday on 11 Nov.

Regions 4276 (S17E28, Dao/beta-gamma) and 4277 (S05E25, Dsi/beta)
continued to show slight growth during the period, with each producing
C-flares. The remainder of the spot groups were relatively unchanged and
inactive.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an
isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong), on 10-12 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 10-12 Nov. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels on 10-12 Nov due to the flare potential
and location of Region 4274.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a waning negative polarity CH
HSS influences. Total field strength reached 8 nT, and the Bz component
ranged between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from 600
km/s to around 525 km/s. Phi was variable throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is likely to become mildly enhanced with CME
influences on 10 Nov as the 07 Nov CME passes in close proximity to
Earth. Stronger solar wind disturbances are likely over 11-12 Nov due to
the anticipated arrival of the 09 Nov asymmetric halo CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 10 Nov due to
possible CME enhancements as the 07 Nov CME passes in close proximity to
Earth. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely
on 11-12 Nov in response to the anticipated arrival of the 09 Nov
asymmetric halo CME.