Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
300 FXXX12 KWNP 170031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M3.1 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/0817 UTC from Region 4274 (N25, L=274) from just around the W limb. This region also produced a C7.2 flare at 16/0107UTC, as well as multiple low-level C-flares during the period. New Region 4284 developed rapidly, was numbered, and immediately began producing flares including a C2.8/Sf at 16/1525 UTC, a C3.9/Sf at 16/1905 UTC, and a C4.4/Sf at 16/1947 UTC. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were all magnetically simple and either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Other activity included a filament channel eruption beginning after 15/2200 UTC and centered near N45W20. Subsequent coronagraph imagery contained a northern-oriented, narrow CME signature. Modelling of the event showed the ejecta travelling well north of the Sun-Earth line, with no impacts at Earth expected. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely, and a diminishing chance for high (R3-Strong) levels on 17 Nov due to the flare potential of old Region 4274 as it rotates further behind the W limb. By 18 Nov, only a slight chance of M-class flares are forecasted, with chances decreasing further by 19 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to trend closer to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 17 Nov, with high levels likely on 18-19 Nov. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could see additional S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 17 Nov while Region 4274 continues to transit the W limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters observed a transient feature elevate the IMF and solar wind speeds after 16/0100 UTC, which lined up well with the minor enhancements that were anticipated from the periphery of a CME associated with the 14 Nov X4 (R3) flare. Total magnetic field strength increased from ~5 nT to a peak of 16 nT at 16/0515 UTC. Bz saw weak southward deflections to around -7 nT, and solar wind speeds increased from 550 km/s to a peak of ~720 km/s. After around 16/1200 UTC, total field settled back down to near 7 nT, Bz began to turn north, and solar winds leveled off near ~600 km/s. Phi continued to be in a mostly negative orientation, with periodic oscillations into a positive position. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be elevated over 17 Nov under waning influence from the transient and the onset of the negative polarity CH HSS. A co-rotating interaction region (CIR), preceding a negative polarity CH HSS, likely coincided with the passing transient. Continued enhancements in the solar wind parameters are expected over 17-19 Nov as CH HSS influence persists. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Nov due to a combination of waning effects from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the continued influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to set in over 18 Nov, with activity expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels on 19 Nov during the waning phase of the CH HSS.