Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
907 FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels, with Region 3712 (S24E25, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) adding an M2.4/Sf flare at 14/0432 UTC. Region 3712 exhibited fairly significant growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, picking up a delta configuration, while Region 3713 (S11E37, Dso/beta-gamma) developed additional spots surrounding its main leader. In addition to these two regions contributing a few C-class flares, Region 3709 (S10W26, Cao/beta) had slight redevelopment in its intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3711 (S10W14, Bxo/beta) and Region 3716 (N11E34, Dso/beta) displayed slight growth, but remained quiet during the period. From around 14/0849-0940 UTC an approximately 23 long filament, centered near S15W23, was observed in GONG H-Alpha imagery erupting from the visible disk. No CME was detected in coronagraph imagery with this event. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1-Minor Radio Blackouts) through 17 Jun. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains slightly enhanced, yet well below the S1 threshold, in response to the far sided halo CME from late on 11 Jun. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 16 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels on 15 Jun and persist through 17 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected nominal levels during the period. Total field was near 5-6 nT. The Bz component was at +/- 6 nT. Solar wind was between 300-350 km/s. Phi was mostly negative, with a brief period in the positive sector from 14/0300-14/0900 UTC. .Forecast... By late on 15 Jun to early on 16 Jun, weak enhancements are possible in response to the potential arrival of a CME from 12 Jun. A positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause enhanced conditions on 17 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mid to late day on 15 Jun through 16 Jun, unsettled to active periods are possible, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels in response to the possible arrival of a CME from 12 Jun. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jun due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.