Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
868 FXXX12 KWNP 020031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to multiple M-class (R1-Minor) flares from Region 4232 (N04E08, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). The regions physical structure (length, area, and spot count) have been relatively despite its activity. Region 4230 (S10W51, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region but has been quiet with regards to flare activity. This region, as well as 4238 (S14W55, Dso/beta) to its south, have been exhibiting quite a bit of shear. Region 4241 (N14E48, Cro/beta) was newly numbered during the day and has shown slight growth but is still relatively simple. A CME was observed in coronagraph imagery near the west limb around 01/1100 UTC. Stereo-A imagery shows clearly that the CME is farsided and model analysis shows no disturbance in the density & wind field reaching Earth. .Forecast... With multiple regions maintaining delta configurations and active shearing - chances for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity remain likely (at 60%) with a slight chance (15%) for R3 (Strong) events through 04 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Enhanced particle flux within a coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) has brought an enhancement of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit. The GOES-19 satellite surpassed the 1,000 pfu threshold at 01/1325 UTC and reached 2,7560 pfu at 01/1535 UTC - during its diurnal maxima. The aforementioned CME that was observed beyond the west limb may have had a significant flare associate with it, that could enhance the 10 MeV proton flux. There was a slight bump in EPAM data on ACE but there has been no response in the 10 MeV proton flux, it has remained at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electrons will remain moderate to high over the coming days due to persistent particle flux within the HSS. It is likely that the threshold will be cross for multiple hours surrounding the diurnal maxima. There continues to be significant shearing across Regions 4230 and 4238, which are in a favorable position in the SW part of the disk. Any significant flares could raise the likelihood of an S1 (Minor) radiation storm. Chances remain low (5%) with the flux likely to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained elevated with a strong, positive polarity CH HSS. The total field (Bt) has been between 8-10 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speeds have been between 700-800 km - with a maximum of 880 km/s at 01/1700 UTC. The phi angle has remained mostly in the positive (away from the Sun) sector with brief fluctuations into the positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will remain enhanced through 04 Oct due to the continued effects of the positive polarity CH HSSs emanating from the two CHs in the central and south part of the disk. Due to the proximity in time to the fall equinox, Earths connection to the current positive CH is amplified based on ideal orientation. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Active to Moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming conditions were observed throughout the period. Although the IMF has become more stable, solar wind speeds remain high (700-800 km/s) which continues to disturb the geomagnetic field. .Forecast... Current conditions are expected to continue into 02 Oct with active to isolated G1 (Minor) conditions thereafter. -Bri