Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
098 FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to an M5.0 flare at 03/1011 UTC from Region 4274 (N24E63, Ekc/beta-gamma). Although the regions classification is still uncertain due to the impacts of foreshortening - shear across its interior is apparent and a beta within its magnetic field is likely. Aside from the R2 (Moderate) level flare, the region also produced three other M-Class flares as of 03/2100 UTC. The other flare producer was Region 4272 (N23E48, Cso/beta), it produced a single M-Class (R1-Minor) flare with multiple C-class flares. Its general structure however has remained relatively stable. The other region of note is Region 4273 (S12E11, Dsi/beta-gamma. It emerged rapidly around 02/0300 UTC, formed a ring-like structure with multiple spots in its intermediate region. Despite its rapid evolution the region has been quiet with regards to flare activity. There were two CMEs associated with the M1.6 flare at 03/0925 UTC and the aforementioned M5.0 from Region. Both CMEs were modelled with the bulk of the ejecta expected to pass behind Earth. However, the magnetic cloud will interact with an approaching coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) and the two are expected to arrive 06-07 Nov. .Forecast... Due to the complexity of Region 4274 and its current activity, flare probabilities have increased to 55% for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and 10% for X-class (Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Due to ongoing influence from the CH HSS, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been mostly above the 1,000 pfu threshold. Electrons reached a peak flux of 2660 at 03/1750 on the GOES-19 satellite. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels as HSS influence wanes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels barring any significant flare/CME events from Region 4274 as it transits the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected an embedded CME that left the disk on 31 Oct within a CH HSS starting around the start of the UTC day. The total (Bt) interplanetary magnetic field was between 7-9 nT with the north-south (Bz) component remaining around -5 to -7 nT for much of the day. Solar wind speeds have been between 450-500 km/s. The phi angle has remained in the positive (away from the Sun) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters will continue to reflect waning conditions of the CH HSS over the coming days. The next HSS associated with the CH currently near the central meridian is expected to become geoeffective 06-07 Nov. Also, the aforementioned CME associated with the M-class flares from Region 4274 is expected to arrive late 06 into 07 Nov. The combination of the two will provide for enhanced solar wind parameters. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels with the CME/HSS effects discussed in the solar wind section. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field will diminish to quiet to unsettled levels 04-05 Nov. The field will become enhanced late 06 Nov due to CME/HSS arrival. A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming Watch has been issued for 06 Nov. -Bri