Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
642 FXXX12 KWNP 081231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4274 (N24E09, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest, most active, most magnetically complex region on the visible disk, despite exhibiting signs of weak decay and separation between its leader and trailer spots. This region was responsible for multiple C-class flares, including a C6.9/Sf flare (the largest of the period) at 07/1551 UTC. Regions 4276 (S17E45, Dai/beta-gamma) and 4277 (NS06E44, Dai/beta) both exhibited growth during the period and added several C-class flares as well. The remainder of the spot groups were relatively unchanged and inactive. A couple of CMEs lifted off the northern quadrant of the disk and were first visible in C2 imagery around 07/1248 UTC. Modelling and analysis determined these CMEs to have a mostly northward trajectory, but a flanking edge is likely to graze the Earth early on the 10th. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate to high levels (R1/R2 - Minor-Moderate), with a chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flares, on 08-10 Nov as the regions in the eastern hemisphere remain active and magnetically complex. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 08 Nov, with conditions likely reaching high levels on 09-10 Nov following an increase in solar winds associated with the CME/CH HSS. Due to the complexity and history of Region 4274, there remains a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) radiation storm through 10 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the likely combined residual CME effects from the 03-04 Nov CMEs and negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength gradually decreased from ~12 nT to end the period near 4 nT. Bz was mostly northward until just before the turn of the UT day when it switched southward, seeing a maximum deviation to near -10 nT. Solar winds began the period just under 800 km/s before beginning a steady decline to end of period speeds around 600 km/s. Phi was variable, hovering in a near-neutral orientation for most of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced through 10 Nov with lingering CME/CH HSS influences. Additional enhancements are likely on 10 Nov with the possible grazing of the 07 Nov CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to the combined effects of the aforementioned CME and CH HSS. .Forecast... G2 (Moderate) conditions are expected to persist through on 08 Nov with lingering CME/CH HSS influences, decreasing to active to G1 (Minor) levels on 09 Nov. Additional CME interactions are likely to increase storm levels back to G1-G2 conditions on 10 Nov.