Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
117 FXXX12 KWNP 160031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels as Region 4274 (N25W88, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) slowly made its way onto the West limb, only producing low- to mid-level C-class flares along the way. The largest flare of the period was a C6.2/Sf flare that peaked at 15/0528 UTC. No other notable flares were observed during the period. New Region 4283 (S19E04, Hrx/alpha) was numbered during the period. Only subtle changes were observed, mostly decay, in nearly all of the numbered regions remaining on the visible disk. An eruption along a filament channel was observed in the SE quadrant after ~15/0430 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery contained a slow-moving, southward oriented CME signature. Modeling of the ejecta indicated a trajectory below the Sun-Earth line with no impacts expected from this event. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with isolated moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely and a decreasing chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity, on 16-17 Nov as Region 4274 completes its transit around the West limb. By 18 Nov, solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for an isolated moderate (R1-Minor) event, with AR 4274 two days beyond the limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated, but well below S1 (Minor) levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels, with a chance to reach high levels, on 16-18 Nov. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could see additional S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 16-17 Nov while Region 4274 continues to transit the W limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected very slowly decreasing CME influence from the 11 Nov event. Solar wind speed, though exhibiting an overall decreasing trend, remained slightly elevated between 525-625 km/s. Total magnetic field strength averaged near 5 nT, with Bz varying between +/-5 nT. Phi was mostly in a negative orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be slightly enhanced early on 16 Nov. By mid to late on 16 Nov, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), preceding a negative polarity CH HSS, will likely become geoeffective causing another enhancement in the solar wind parameters over 17-18 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16 Nov. However, if the shock from the CME associated with the X4 flare from 14 Nov does impact Earth, and our timing is correct, brief enhancements could be seen during the first half of 16 Nov prompting possible G1 (Minor) storm conditions. The anticipated onset of a CIR/CH HSS later on the 16th should increase conditions to active and likely G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a chance for an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming, if the two events combine. On 17 Nov, G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to continue as the enhancements from the CIR/CH HSS (possibly combined with lingering CME effects) persist. Unsettled to active levels are then expected to return by 18 Nov as Earth settles into the CH HSS.