049
FXUS63 KDLH 031107
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
607 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot for October. Record high temperatures are likely today
  and Saturday.

- Showers and storms in north-central Minnesota Saturday evening
  into Sunday. A strong storm may be possible.

- Gusty winds this weekend, with strong wind gusts to 45 mph
  expected Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The main story heading into the weekend is the summer-like heat
that will build across the Northland. An approaching storm
system to our west will pump in exceptionally warm air, pushing
high temperatures into the low to upper 80s for most today and
Saturday. With overnight lows only falling into the 60s, this
pattern will feel more like July than early October. These
temperatures are a full 20 to 25 degrees above normal and will
likely challenge, or even break, several daily high temperature
records. The only relief from the heat will be found right along
the Lake Superior shoreline, where an onshore breeze will keep
highs in the 70s. For those heading to the beaches near Duluth
and Superior on Friday, be aware that northeast winds could
create waves over two feet and dangerous rip currents.

As we move through the weekend, the focus will shift from the heat
to the impacts from that approaching storm system. The primary
threat will be very strong winds. Southerly winds will strengthen
throughout the day Saturday, with frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph
becoming common by the afternoon and evening. Winds will become even
stronger on Sunday, potentially gusting as high as 50 mph as the
systems cold front moves through. This combination of strong winds,
record warmth, and drying conditions may create near-critical
fire weather. Any fires that start could spread very rapidly,
so please use extreme caution with any outdoor burning this weekend.

That storm system is expected to track to our north, keeping the
best chances for rain confined to far northern Minnesota. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible in north-central Minnesota
Saturday night, with a slight chance that a storm could become
strong with hail and gusty winds. The systems main effect on
our weather will be the strong cold front that will sweep across
the area Sunday afternoon and evening. This front will bring a
decisive end to the summer-like warmth, ushering in much cooler,
more seasonable air for the start of the new work week. Highs
will return to the 50s and 60s, with overnight lows dipping into
the 30s. We could even see our first widespread frost or freeze
of the season by Tuesday night. These dry and cool conditions are
expected to continue through the first half of the week, keeping
fire weather concerns in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Some patchy LIFR fog sticks around for a couple hours yet this
morning, burning off through mid morning. VFR conditions then
expected to persist through the rest of the TAF period. Southerly
winds pick up overnight into Saturday morning with some LLWS
possible.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Mariners on western Lake Superior should be prepared for
rapidly changing and hazardous conditions through the weekend.
For today, northeast winds will create choppy conditions, with
waves building to over two feet near the Duluth and Superior
harbors. A significant shift will occur on Saturday as strong
southerly winds develop, building large waves and creating
increasingly dangerous conditions for all boaters. Conditions
are expected to become life-threatening on Sunday as winds ahead
of a cold front could gust near 40 kts, generating very high
waves along the North Shore. A gale watch has been issued for
the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The very warm to hot period this weekend is creating a forecast
of some likely-to-be broken record high and warm low
temperatures in the Northland. Below are the days which have the
highest chances of multiple stations tying or breaking these
temperature records. These forecast temperatures are about 20
degrees F (highs) and about 25 degrees (warm lows) above normal
for early October.

Record High Temperatures:

October 3: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      80       82/2023
KINL:      82       84/2023
KBRD:      86       84/2023
KHIB:      81       83/1953

October 4:
KDLH:      84       83/1922
KINL:      83       82/2011
KBRD:      88       82/2011
KHIB:      83       78/2011


Record Warm Low Temperatures:

October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      58       58/1914
KINL:      64       60/1914
KBRD:      68       60/1914
KHIB:      59       54/1969
KASX:      59       59/1931

October 5:
KASX:      56       56/1975

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-
     018-019-025-026-033>035.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     LSZ140>144.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Wolfe
CLIMATE...Wolfe