376
FXUS63 KDLH 081134
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions due to low relative humidity
  this afternoon from the Brainerd Lakes northward to the
  Canadian Border.

- Tonight, patchy frost south of the Iron Range and localized
  freezing temperatures over portions of northwest Wisconsin
  are possible.

- Temperatures warm back to 5-10F above normal late this week
  into the weekend, with more widespread rain chances returning
  Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

High pressure is centered over north MN this morning, with calm
wind over much of the Northland. Coupled with clear skies and
low dewpoints, temperatures have fallen to or below freezing at
all locations except for the immediate shore lines around
western Lake Superior. Should see mid 20s to lower 30s before
sunrise, with mid to upper 30s near the shore. The surface high
will shift southeastward today toward Lake Michigan, allowing
for low level southerly winds to return to the Brainerd Lakes
region northward. Weak low level warm advection and sunny skies
will bump temperatures back to normal values, with highs in the
lower 50s to lower 60s. Expect good mixing in the low levels
today, which will allow a dry layer around 2-3kft to mix down to
the surface. Dewpoints should mix out this afternoon enough to
bump RH values down below 25 percent for locations west of
US-53. Will handle the elevated fire weather concerns with an
SPS.

Southerly flow continues into Thursday with temperatures
continuing to moderate ahead of a clipper and front dropping
southeastward across Lake Winnipeg into the Great Lakes. Weak
convergence along the front will allow for isolated to
scattered showers Thursday evening, but moisture return ahead of
the front is limited. Rain chances will be confined to the
Arrowhead and northwest WI, with rainfall totals less than a
tenth of an inch. High pressure quickly builds in behind the
clipper, with another push of drier air arriving Friday. This
high does not tap into much arctic air, with temperatures
remaining above freezing Friday night.

Surface high and ridging will keep the Northland dry through
Saturday, as broader troughing amplifies along the West Coast
and shifts eastward over the Rockies. Better moisture advection
ahead of this system will be coupled with a stronger shortwave
and surface low developing lee of the Rockies and quickly
shifting into south central Canada. This will allow for
increased rain chances Sunday through Monday. Early estimates
keep rainfall totals below one half inch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Surface high pressure over the area will lead to VFR conditions
with clear skies through the period. There is localized fog this
morning, but it is not currently impacting any forecast
terminal. Calm winds this morning will remain light and variable
for most of the area. South winds at 5-7kts can be expected at
BRD, DLH, and HIB this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

High pressure overhead today creates calm to very light winds
slowly shifting to southerly by this evening. Breezy winds from
the southwest increasing tonight into Thursday may create
conditions hazardous for small craft from Grand Marais to Grand
Portage Thursday and Thursday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA