602
FXUS63 KDLH 111147
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
547 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are expected today with a chance for a
  wintry mix in the Arrowhead and north-central WI. Snow
  accumulations through tonight are expected to be 0.5" or less.

- A dry pattern settles over the region starting tomorrow for
  the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures will become
  unseasonably warm, with highs reaching the mid 40s to mid 40s
  for most by Friday.

- The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives this
  weekend ahead of a cold front with precipitation type likely
  to be rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A band of moderate snow has been propagating eastward across
northwest WI this morning ahead of approaching low pressure. Dynamic
forcing associated with this early morning snowfall has been fairly
impressive, with a band of strong FGEN and high omega within the DGZ
appearing in latest RAP analysis. Visibility underneath this band
has been as low as 3/4 of a mile, leading to light snow
accumulations. Due to the fast propagation of this band, snowfall in
north-central WI early this morning will be light from a dusting to
around 0.1".

Conditions behind this band of snow early this morning have been
benign with southerly winds becoming breezy. These southerly winds
will usher in warmer high temperatures today as WAA occurs. High
temps this afternoon are expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
for most locations, roughly around 10 degrees warmer compared to
yesterday`s high temps.

A shortwave trough diving south into the Upper Great Lakes from
northwestern Ontario will bring a chance for scattered precipitation
late this afternoon into tonight in the Arrowhead and north-central
WI. Precipitation type will be fairly messy with this passing
shortwave, as the WAA occurring today increases both sfc
temperatures and temps aloft above freezing in St. Louis County and
western portions of Lake County. These warm temps will likely
result in light rain this afternoon, switching to a wintry mix
and eventually all snow tonight as diurnal cooling occurs and
temps drop to around freezing.

Where p-type gets more complicated will be in Lake and Cook
Counties, where temps will be at or slightly above freezing through
the day. This will likely result initially with snow, mixing with
rain around peak diurnal heating late this afternoon. One thing to
note is the possibility of a brief period of freezing drizzle in the
Arrowhead this afternoon and early evening, as model soundings show
a potential loss of ice aloft due to dry air. However, confidence is
not very high in ice accumulation potential. Total snowfall in the
tip of the Arrowhead by Wednesday morning is very likely (70%
chance) to range from a dusting to around 0.5".

As the shortwave trough dives into the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday, a quiet pattern is expected to settle over the CWA for
the remainder of the workweek. A ridge building over the central
CONUS will bring warmer temperatures to the area, with high temps on
Friday and Saturday in the mid 40s to mid 50s for most. The next
best chance for precip is still on track to arrive this weekend as a
cold front sweeps through the CWA, with p-type most likely being
rain. Early indications show that thunderstorms may occur on
Saturday afternoon in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, but
the potential is low at this time (10% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions currently in place, except in KINL, are expected to
transition to MVFR and IFR this morning into the afternoon as low
pressure moves into the area. Most of the precipitation associated
with this low pressure is expected to remain north in Canada.
However, the Arrowhead and north-central WI will see the potential
for rain and wintry mix this afternoon and continue into the
evening. Tonight, model trends strongly favor improvement to VFR as
the low pressure moves downstream and a drier pattern settles over
the area. South to southwest winds this morning will be shifting to
the west-northwest today with breezy conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Southwest winds will be increasing early this morning to 5 to 15
knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots that will continue through the
day . Winds direction will be becoming more westerly to
northwesterly by late afternoon today. The highest wind gusts will
be over the open waters and along the North Shore from Grand Marais
to Grand Portage and the Outer Apostle Islands. These winds will
also generate waves of 2 to 5 feet in these areas as well. On
Wednesday, when winds increase further, there will be a 10-30%
chance for brief gales from Grand Marais to Grand Portage and in the
Outer Apostle Islands. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
of western Lake Superior today through Wednesday evening. Winds will
slowly diminish Wednesday night with northwesterly winds of 5 to 15
knots expected for Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for
     LSZ121-141>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh