538
FXUS63 KDLH 120914
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
314 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering flurries/sprinkles in Cook County, MN prior to
  sunrise. No additional accumulations expected.

- Gusty west-northwest to northwest winds today with daytime
  gusts of 25-35 mph, strongest along the North Shore.

- Dry weather today through Friday with warming temperatures
  through the rest of the workweek. Highs reach the upper 40s to
  50s for most locations by Friday.

- The next chance for precipitation (20-40%) arrives Friday
  night into Saturday with a cold front, though potential has
  been decreasing. Precipitation type is likely to be light
  rain, though some snowflakes could mix in late Saturday if
  precipitation lingers that long.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Today - Friday:

Some lingering low clouds and flurries/sprinkles remain possible
prior to sunrise this morning in Cook County, MN as moisture
associated with low pressure over northern Ontario shifts
southeast. No additional accumulations expected.

Skies clear out for most of the Northland today aside from some
lingering low-clouds near the International Border. Seasonal
high temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s--coolest north--
will accompany the sunshine today. However, a tight surface
pressure gradient will keep daytime winds gusty, with WNW to NW
Winds gusting to 25-35 mph. Winds gradually weaken this evening
and tonight.

Dry weather and warming temperatures continue through the
remainder of the work week as a mid/upper-level ridge axis over
the intermountain west today shifts east into the central
CONUS. High temperatures are expected to be in the 40s on
Thursday and upper 40s to 50s on Friday, though portions of the
Arrowhead on Friday may only touch the mid 40s.

Friday Night - This weekend:

The next chance for precipitation (20-40% chances) arrives
Friday night into Saturday with and behind a cold front
associated with low pressure that will be moving east across
northern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and far northern Ontario. The
trend in global ensemble forecast low tracks has been farther
north and slightly faster than in previous model runs.
Additionally, forecasts of surface high pressure over the
southeast CONUS have slide the high pressure center slightly
farther west for the weekend timeframe, choking off the better
feed of western Gulf moisture advection and keeping it south of
the Upper Midwest. The net result is precipitation chances for
the weekend have continued the trend of decreasing. Rainfall
probabilities of >0.25" with this system now sit at 5-15%, with
the highest in the tip of the Arrowhead. It is looking
increasingly likely that most of the Northland will see very
little to no precipitation accumulations with this system, and
possibly a few hundredths up to around 0.10" in the Arrowhead.
Any precipitation that does fall should be in the form of rain,
but some snowflakes may mix in Saturday afternoon and evening in
the Arrowhead and north-central Wisconsin if precipitation hangs
around that long. There is also a 5-10% chance for a rumble of
thunder or two to accompany rain showers with the cold front
daytime Saturday (MUCAPE up to 50-75 J/kg), but the potential is
very low.

Temperatures cool closer to normal for this time of year on
Sunday in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the 30s to
around 40 degrees, coolest in northern Minnesota.

Early Next Week:

Looking ahead to early next week, a generally dry pattern is
favored with northwest flow aloft and a weaker ridge moving in
from the west. Ensembles and deterministic guidance do diverge
a bit more with regards to whether or not low pressure off the
Pacific Coast late this week dissipates into westerly flow
underneath the ridge early next week or holds together as it
crosses some portion of the central CONUS (either mid or upper
Mississippi River Valleys). Given this uncertainty, confidence
in precipitation placement and potential early next week remains
low, so have maintained broad brushed 10-30% precipitation
chances during the Monday - Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures
appear more seasonal next week with widespread highs in the 30s
to around 40F and overnight lows in the 20s, so if any
precipitation does move through it could be in the form of rain,
snow, or a rain/snow mix depending on the time of day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

There will be some lingering VFR to MVFR ceilings in the tip of
the Minnesota Arrowhead and north-central Wisconsin early during
the current overnight hours associated with the backside of a
low pressure system over northern Ontario. As this system slides
east, VFR conditions under clearings skies should set in for the
remainder of the TAF period. Some periodic WNW wind gusts to 15
to 20 kt continue during the current overnight, becoming more
northwesterly for daytime Wednesday with gusts of 20 to 25 kt.
Winds and gusts gradually wane after 00Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

While the stronger drainage winds in Grand Marais have largely
subsided, recent readings at an observation sensor in Grand
Portage showed a recent gust of 37 kt (43 mph) as of 3 AM CST,
so will continue to maintain the Gale Warning at Taconite Harbor
to Grand Portage for now until 6 AM. Otherwise, westerly winds
of 10-20 kt with gusts to 20 to 30 kt continue in all of the
western Lake Superior nearshore waters through this evening
before gradually diminishing below Small Craft Advisory levels
tonight into Thursday morning. Occasional gale-force gusts
(10-30%) remain possible in the Outer Apostle Islands and Grand
Marais to Grand Portage today, with a 10-30% chance of
occurrence. Waves along the South Shore will remain 3-7 feet
today into tonight, especially in the Outer Apostle Islands,
before diminishing on Thursday. Winds weaken last in the Outer
Apostles and Grand Marais to Grand Portage Thursday morning.

Another round of winds and waves hazardous to small craft are
possible again this weekend behind a cold front Saturday
afternoon into Sunday night, with westerly gusts up to 30 kt.
Waves of 3 to 6 ft will be possible again along portions of the
South Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ121-
     145>148.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST
     Thursday for LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein