722
FXUS63 KDLH 231141
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
541 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm today and to a lesser extent tomorrow.

- A long duration system arrives Monday afternoon with rain
  mixing with snow Tuesday then changing over to all snow
  Tuesday night into Wednesday. Accumulating snow across much of
  the region is becoming more likely.

- Colder air moves in Wednesday and lasts into the weekend
  bringing below normal temperatures with another system
  possible for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure was located near Sioux City early this morning
with the surface ridge axis extending northward into the Red
River Valley of the North. A warm front was located across the
western Dakotas and was leading to cloud cover across North
Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Another area of cloud cover
was located across northwestern Ontario into the Minnesota
Arrowhead in association with an area of low pressure just to
the northeast of Lake Superior. The ridge axis will move
overhead today with winds turning southerly as the day
progresses bringing warmer air into the Northland. Highs will be
in the 40s and lower 50s which is around 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. A bit of cooler air arrives on Monday behind a dry cold
front. Highs will still be above normal in the 40s.

Heading into Monday night, our well advertised system will start
to affect the Upper Midwest. The 23.00 suite of models have
slowed down the onset time of rain moving into the region to
Monday night into Tuesday morning. This rain will be front a
shortwave and surface low pressure moving northeast across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Trends have been a bit further south
recently with this feature resulting in the delayed onset time.
There is also a chance that it remains further south and only
clips parts of northwest Wisconsin. Heading into Tuesday, the
more impactful part of the system will arrive as an upper low
moves out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest.
Cooler air will also be arriving through the day on Tuesday
leading to rain mixing with snow before changing over to all
snow from northwest to southeast Tuesday night. Snow will then
slowly taper off from west to east on Wednesday. Strong
northwesterly winds on the backside of the system may lead to
areas of blowing snow as even cooler air filters in.

With all that said, there still remains questions as to the
evolution of the system, the track of the low, and how much
moisture will be available. Models seem to be fairly consistent
in tracking the low across our southern CWA Tuesday into
Wednesday, which would keep us out of the dry slot for the most
part leading to higher precipitation potential. The track of the
low also hints at the potential for a TROWAL setting up across
the Northland somewhere which would lead to heavier snowfall
amounts underneath. Additionally, Thaler QG-omega progs are
strongly negative over the Northland as the system moves through
which would lead to enhanced lift and higher snowfall amounts as
well. One of the big questions remaining is how much moisture
will be able to work northward into the region. Models vary on
this, but overall have been trending wetter. PWAT values aren`t
overly high, but are still in the 75th percentile or higher for
the date.

Continuing with the format started be the previous forecaster, here
are the latest thoughts on probabilities for certain snowfall
amounts:

>= 1": 50-80%, highest in northern Minnesota and the South
Shore.
>= 4": 20-50% in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
away from Lake Superior, and 50-70% in northern Minnesota and
the South Shore.
>= 6": up to 20-50% mainly across the Arrowhead. Up to 40-70%
in Iron Co, WI.
>= 10": Best chance (30-50%) in northern Iron Co. 10-20% chance
somewhere in far northeast Minnesota.

These probabilities include lake-effect snowfall along the South
Shore that will linger into Thursday night. Sfc-850 delta Ts
will be 15 to 20 degrees (and perhaps higher!) which would
result in lake induced CAPE of 500-700 J/kg. This should really
get the lake effect machine going across northern Iron County
for Wednesday into Thursday with the heaviest snow expected
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The cold air will remain in place over the remainder of the week
and into the weekend with highs in the 20s and overnight lows in
the teens and single digits above zero. Models continue to hint
at another large system affecting the central CONUS for the
weekend. Given the cold temperatures, this will be all snow and
may lead to travel impacts while trying to return home from the
Thanksgiving holiday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There may be
some LLWS at HYR tonight, but potential is too low to include
with this update.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 429 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds will continue to weaken today as high pressure moves over
western Lake Superior. Westerly winds this morning at 10 to 20
knots will become southwesterly this afternoon and tonight at 5
to 15 knots. Stronger gusts to 20 to maybe 25 knots will be
possible across the Outer Apostle Islands tonight and may lead
to a period of conditions hazardous to small craft. Winds
Monday will slowly diminish to 5 to 10 knots out of the west to
southwest by afternoon. Winds turn northeasterly on Tuesday as
the next system approaches with conditions hazardous to small
craft starting Tuesday night with gales possible as well late
Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH