379
FXUS63 KDLH 081756
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1156 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below-normal temperatures persist into Monday.

- Periods of light snow/flurries move through the Northland
  today and Sunday.

- More pronounced lake-effect snow is expected along the South
  Shore later today into early Monday. Higher terrain of Ashland
  and Iron counties should see 4 to 8 inches of snow, with
  localized amounts of 8+ inches not out of the question.

- Temperatures warm a bit again next week, with occasional light
  rain/snow possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

This Weekend - Early Monday:

We will start off this morning dry and fairly cold, with lows
in the teens for much of northeast MN where low clouds have
cleared and 20s from central MN east to much of northwest WI
where low clouds are/will hang around longer. Most of the
Northland should expect predominately dry conditions for much
of today as a low pressure system over the Dakotas slides
southeast into Iowa, with the associated precipitation remaining
to our west and south. With that said, a cold airmass in place
with 850 mb temperatures of -10C to -15C across the Upper
Midwest will aid in the development of some lake-effect clouds
and light lake-effect snow showers downwind (i.e. to the south
and southeast) of larger inland Minnesota Lakes, particularly
off of Lake of the Woods where a narrow band of a couple inches
of snow could accumulate downwind of it into far western
Koochiching County. Away from inland lakes, there will also be
some saturation in the dendritic growth zone in north-central
and northeast Minnesota starting this afternoon, so we have
introduced some flurries this afternoon/evening as thermal
profiles and surface temperatures should remain cold enough to
keep precipitation as all snow. Can`t rule out some of these
becoming sporadic light snow showers, but little to no
accumulations are expected.

A closed upper-level low over James Bay and far northern Ontario
today will then drop shortwave energy south through the
Northland later this evening into Sunday, bringing scattered
light snow showers to locations mainly along and north of US-2
in MN and to most of northwest WI. Expect minimal accumulations
with this snowfall. Otherwise, the main concern will be a more
prominent round of lake-effect snow developing along the South
Shore later today through Sunday before tapering off on Monday
morning. Lake Superior sfc to 850 mb temperature differences
around 20C should drive the development of ample lake-induced
instability values of 400-700 J/kg, which when combined with
terrain enhancement in the Penokee and Gogebic ranges of
central Ashland to central/northern Iron Counties could produce
snowfall amounts upwards of 4-8". Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued for Ashland and Iron counties to cover this threat.
Also can`t completely rule out locally 8+ by the time snow ends
Monday morning in the higher terrain of northern Iron County,
with the probability of this occurring around 20-30%. Hourly
snowfall rates on daytime Sunday could also approach 0.5-1" per
hour when the best synoptic forcing will overlap the maximized
lake-effect processes, likely reducing visibilities. Snow totals
will depend on how robust snow rates can get daytime Sunday and
how much dry air may move into the South Shore later on Sunday
into Sunday night. The lake-effect machine is forecast to end
towards late Monday morning/Monday afternoon as much drier air
and warming 850 mb temperatures move in.

Temperatures will also be below average this weekend into
Monday, with highs in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s and lows in
the teens to around 20F tonight and Sunday night. Most
locations on Sunday may not even get above freezing for high
temperatures.

Next Week:

A general northwest flow pattern aloft settles in through much
of next week, though periodic shortwaves/clippers pass through
the Upper Midwest. This includes an Alberta Clipper Monday night
and Tuesday with flurry/light snow chances and more subtle
shortwave energy on Wednesday and Wednesday night with potential
for a light rain/snow mix. Moisture with these systems looks
limited at this juncture, so have kept precipitation chances on
the lower side at 10-30%. Temperatures do return closer to
normal for mid-November much of next week with highs in the
mid-30s to mid-40s and lows in the 20s.

Ensemble guidance and CPC forecasts point to fairly good
agreement in an upper-level ridge sliding over the central CONUS
late next week into next weekend, which could bring a return of
above-average temperatures once again in that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

MVFR ceilings are spreading south early this afternoon and the
models are not seeing this at all. Have worked this trend in
with this update, but confidence is low on how long it will
stick around and how far south it will get. Some light snow
showers will be possible this afternoon, but most of this
activity looks to miss the terminals being mainly lake effect
activity. Dry air near the surface will also limit this
activity. Northerly winds will increase for this afternoon into
tomorrow with gusts to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers
are expected to develop downstream of Lake Superior across
northwest Wisconsin. This activity should remain east of HYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Lighter north to northwest winds today will increase again this
evening through Monday morning, leading to 2 to 5 ft waves along
much of the South Shore that will be highest from the Outer
Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior to
cover these winds and waves through early Monday. The system
causing these winds will also bring snow showers, and especially
lake-effect snow showers for the South Shore later today into
early Monday with reduced visibilities in the snow showers.

Stronger winds and increasing waves pick back up out of the
southwest on Tuesday, then turn northwesterly and stay elevated
for Tuesday night into Thursday. Additional hazardous
conditions are possible in this timeframe. There is a 10-30%
chance for gale-force winds in western Lake Superior on
Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Monday for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for LSZ121-145>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday
     for LSZ140>144.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Rothstein