342
FXUS63 KDLH 032338
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
538 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder with increasing clouds tonight.

- A few light showers possible late Tuesday and Tuesday night
  with some wet snowflakes possible Tuesday night in northern
  Minnesota.

- More chances for precipitation Thursday night into Friday and
  the weekend along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Low pressure was located over southern Hudson Bay this afternoon
with a cold front trailing back into the Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley and Southern Plains. High pressure was located over the
Central and Northern Plains. This was resulting in a tight
pressure gradient over the Northland with westerly winds gusting
to 25 to 35 mph. A few gusts to 40 to 45 mph were also reported,
but these stronger winds were very isolated. As the low moves
further to the east tonight, the ridge axis will move overhead
allowing winds to diminish. Clouds are expected to increase
overnight as low pressure moves out of the Northern Rockies
which will help keep lows tonight slightly warmer than what they
would be under clear skies. It will still be chilly with lows
falling into the upper 20s and 30s.

Southerly surface flow for Tuesday will bring warmer air into
the Northland as zonal flow aloft brings a shortwave through the
Northern Tier as the day progresses. A weak surface low will
develop and pass to our south Tuesday night and bring chances
(30-50%) for a few light showers. Most of this will be liquid
with late afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, but
as temperatures fall into the upper 20s and 30s overnight, a few
wet snowflakes may mix in for areas north of the Iron Range and
into the Arrowhead. No accumulations are expected with ground
surface temperatures still in the upper 30s, but some may see a
light coating on elevated surfaces Wednesday morning.

High pressure will bring dry conditions for Wednesday and
Wednesday night before the next wave in the quasi-zonal flow
aloft arrives for Thursday. This clipper will again likely be
liquid for most, but there will be more in the way of mix during
the day across inland North Shore areas and more areas of all
snow across northern areas overnight. Little to no accumulations
are currently expected, but trends will have to be followed as
temperatures just a few degrees cooler may lead to more snow.
Highs Thursday will be in the 40s and lower 50s before only
reaching the middle 30s to middle 40s Friday. A few showers may
linger into Friday before another clipper swings through for the
weekend. This one will move through with temperatures more
conducive to snow and models are putting down swaths of snowfall
in or near the region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty
with the track of this system, but someone in the Upper Midwest
may see their first accumulation of the season with this system.
Highs for the weekend will remain below normal in the 30s with
lows in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Breezy westerly
winds will be easing this evening into tonight, shifting southerly
on Tuesday. Expect cloud cover to increase tonight as low pressure
moves towards the region. Rain showers will be possible late Tuesday
afternoon in KHIB and KINL, with the majority of precip not expected
until after the 00z period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Gusty westerly winds will quickly diminish this evening with the
loss of daytime heating and as high pressure begins to move in
from the west. Winds will remain strongest along the North Shore
from Grand Marais into Grand Portage and the Outer Apostle
Islands into the early morning hours. Any lingering waves will
subside overnight as well. High pressure will keep winds at
around 10 knots or less for Tuesday into Tuesday night before
becoming northwesterly for Wednesday in the wake of a cold
front. Gusts up to around 20 knots are currently expected with
higher gusts to around 25 knots along parts of the North Shore
which may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft through
the day before winds diminish Wednesday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
     142>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ140-141-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...BJH