149
FXUS63 KDLH 160002
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
602 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of strong winds are expected through this
  week: Tuesday afternoon and evening (west to northwest
  direction, Wind Advisory in effect), Wednesday afternoon and
  evening (southerly, not quite as strong), and through the day
  Thursday (northwest, likely strongest of the week).

- A messy system could bring rain, freezing drizzle, and heavy
  wet snow to the Northland Wednesday afternoon through
  Thursday. Uncertainty is still high on exact placement of
  particular sensible weather impacts.

- Temperatures warm above freezing Tuesday and again Wednesday
  evening/early Thursday morning before crashing back down below
  zero by Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A fairly quiet, mostly sunny afternoon with near average
temperatures should be enjoyed today, as this tranquility will not
be the norm for the rest of the week. Several back to back low
pressure systems are expected to move along the Canadian Border with
tight pressure gradients and ample moisture sources.

The first system tomorrow passes to our north and brings a mostly
dry front across the area through the day, bringing a quick blast of
northwest winds on the backside screaming across the Northland.
Gusts of 25 to 45 mph are expected, possibly over 50mph on the North
Shore. A Wind Advisory has been issued for portions of north-central
MN and the North Shore from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening or early Wednesday morning. Along the North Shore, there is
a non-zero chance for gusts over 60mph, which, if they materialize,
could warrant the need for an upgrade to a High Wind Warning there.
Those winds should calm quickly into Wednesday morning.

This Tuesday system will provide stout WAA tomorrow and should allow
temperatures to skyrocket well above normal, with afternoon high
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. With such a well-chilled
snowpack, there likely wont be too much widespread melting, but
areas that see some melt on sidewalks and roads could lead to slick
spots as temperatures go back below freezing overnight.

The highlight system of the week pushes into the area Wednesday,
keeping the above normal temperatures going as we likely stay in the
warm sector ahead of this low. Due to the timing of this system, the
high temperature on Wednesday and Thursday will likely be non-
diurnal and close to each other around midnight, so we`ll warm
through most of the day Wednesday and cool through the whole day on
Thursday.

This Wed-Thu system is robust for one on a clipper-like track, as
most solutions show a central pressure less than 980-990mb and NAEFS
and ECE are at the bottom of climatology for mean MSLP percentiles.
It should also have multiple moisture sources as it pulls from the
atmospheric rivers hitting the Pacific Northwest and manages to
access Gulf moisture as well. This system will likely be able to
produce heavy wet snow and very strong winds. However there are
currently several different clusters of solutions when it comes to
the track of this system that will affect our sensible weather. A
more northerly track option (Euro Ensemble, some Canadian ensemble
members) would keep much of the heavy precipitation to our north,
with a rain/snow mix along the warm front Wednesday PM and then a
significant dry slot into Thursday (possible freezing drizzle)
before some light snow arrived on the backside along with plunging
temperatures. A more southerly track (GEFS ensemble and some
Canadian members along with Euro AI ensemble) would pull more of the
precipitation shield into our area with a heavy snow potential
across the north. Either way we`ll likely see some rain/snow mix
beginning late Wednesday afternoon that transitions into all snow by
Thursday afternoon, possibly with a period of freezing drizzle in
between. Currently the best chance for a couple inches or more of
snow is along the International Border. As this system pushes east
Thursday PM, temperatures will plunge back below zero by Friday
morning. Depending on exactly what kind of precipitation any given
area receives some icy slick spots could develop.

Southerly winds pick up through the day Wednesday, but compared to
Tuesday and Thursday these will be more on the "blustery" side with
gusts of 20-30mph. Those winds turn westerly Wednesday evening into
Thursday, and some of the strongest winds of the week are expected
through the day Thursday out of the west-northwest. Widespread gusts
of 30-45mph are likely with stronger winds along the North Shore.
Another round of Wind Advisories could be needed if not superseded
by winter headlines.

Don`t worry, the active weather is done after Thursday. We should
see a very brief lull in activity overnight into Friday morning
before another clipper passes over us, bringing a chance for some
light snow accumulations. Onshore winds along the North Shore could
lead to some enhanced amounts there but that will be very dependent
on exact track which is still uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Satellite and surface observations show an area of MVFR stratus
building into INL and eventually HIB this evening and early
tonight, but should see some improvements back to VFR towards
morning. Warm flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere may
support some additional low cloud (SCT to BKN MVFR to possibly
IFR ceilings tonight), but confidence is not high at the moment.
There may be a brief one to two hours of light freezing drizzle
at INL and HIB, and possibly BRD/DLH to a lesser extent tonight
into early Tuesday morning, with PROB30s currently highlight
timing of best potential. Low-level moisture is shallow and
there may not be enough of it to see any precipitation. Winds
become gusty into Tuesday, becoming southwesterly in the
morning, westerly in the afternoon, and northwesterly Tuesday
evening. Wind gusts of 25-35 kt are forecast for daytime
Tuesday, strongest late in the period. Low-level wind shear
becomes widespread starting tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Numerous rounds of gales and possibly storm force winds are expected
through this week. The first round arrives Tuesday afternoon and
evening with northwest winds behind a mostly dry cold front. The
strongest winds should be along the North Shore but all of Western
Lake Superior will likely see gusts in excess of 35 knots. Gusts in
excess of 45 knots are possible for the North Shore. A Gale Warning
is in effect. Wind should die fairly quickly going into Wednesday
morning but the lull wont last long, with southerly winds picking up
through Wednesday afternoon. Another period of gale force gusts is
possible here too. Into Thursday morning those winds remain strong
but become northwesterly and strengthen even further. By Thursday
afternoon and evening gale force winds are likely and storm force
gusts are possible, especially for the North Shore. Winds should
calm going into Friday morning. Additional Gale Warnings and Heavy
Freezing Spray Warnings will likely be needed, especially for
Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ010-011-018.
     Wind Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for
     MNZ020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     LSZ140-141.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night
     for LSZ142>145.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night
     for LSZ146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Levens