014
FXUS63 KDLH 301159
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
559 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bands of moderate to heavy lake effect snow continue to
  affect the South Shore this morning. Total accumulations of up
  to 6 inches is possible, and Winter Weather Advisories remain
  in effect.

- Colder temperatures are expected for the much of the work
  week with additional passing chances of snow with weak clipper
  systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Lake effect snow in combination with the low pressure system as
it moves into southern lower Michigan this morning. The bands
are bringing enhanced snowfall rates to most of the South Shore
this morning, with northeast low level winds and lake surface
temperatures in the low 40s. I expect the bands to persist
through sunrise this morning, even as the winds back more
northerly to shift the bands farther east along the South Shore.
We currently have a Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM for all
four South Shore counties, and depending on where those bands
are will have to make a decision about which counties to extend
and how far into Sunday morning. The lake effect bands should be
east of Iron county no later than noon, though. Returning to
the low pressure system to our southeast, it is adding to the
snowfall over northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota
early this morning. This too should shift east out of the
forecast area during the morning hours. For now the 12z
expiration time of the advisory for Price county still seems
appropriate, but will have to see how things look over the next
couple hours. Elsewhere, we remain in cyclonic flow at the low
levels most of today, that together with the steep low level
lapse rates induced by the pool of cold air moving into the area
at the mid levels, should get some convective-y snow showers
going from mid morning through most of the afternoon. It does
not appear we have a significant risk of snow squalls at this
time. Overall, it will be rather chilly today as compared to
last week, with highs only in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Tonight there are some good indications we should get some
clearing of the cloud cover, that together with the fresh snow,
will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits to around
zero tonight into Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will
also slide across the area, which will help with some lighter
wind speeds overnight.

This upcoming work week will have some rather active weather,
with broad upper level troughing over the Upper Midwest region
which will allow a series of shortwaves to pass across the
Northland. These will bring periodic chances for snow through
the week, but none of these systems look terribly impactful,
bringing light snowfall accumulations. There is low confidence
in timing for these, so pops remain relatively low for now. We
are also looking at near to below normal temperatures for all of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A slow improvement in conditions is expected through today for
the TAF sites. While KDLH and KHYR have improved to VFR ceilings
this morning, KHYR may have scattered showers with MVFR
conditions for another hour or two. Stratus which has developed
over KINL, KHIB and KBRD is expected to linger for several hours
before the terminals return to VFR by late afternoon. There may
also be a few snow showers, but have only included VCSH groups
for now. The lower ceilings will linger a little longer for
KHYR. North to northeast winds gusting up to 20 knots early this
morning will gradually diminish and then back to northwest this
afternoon, then back farther to southwest by late tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

North-northeast winds early this morning are expected to back
into the northwest through Sunday morning. Observed gusts this
morning have been approaching 30 kts, but should diminish
through the course of the day today. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through today before both winds and waves
diminish later today and tonight. Winds to back into the
southwest Monday morning and increase again before diminishing
once again Monday night. The winds may be strong enough to cause
building waves and hazardous conditions for Small Craft once
again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ004.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 10 AM CST this morning
     for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
     140>142-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
     LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE