858
FXUS63 KDLH 150538
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1138 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of rain or a rain/snow mix tonight with colder air
  to follow.

- Near normal temperatures will prevail for the coming week
  with precipitation chances returning late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Low pressure was located across northern Saskatchewan with an
occluded front extending into Manitoba to near Winnipeg. A cold
front then trailed back to the west across North Dakota and
northern Montana. A warm front extended from this triple point
near Winnipeg to into southern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa and
further south into the Ohio Valley. Some radar returns were
observed across north-central Minnesota, but this was not
reaching the ground with dry air near the surface. Clouds are
expected to increase through the evening and into tonight ahead
of the cold front. Hi-res CAMs are trying to develop a line of
showers along the front for late this evening and into early
Saturday morning. Given the lack of moisture with this system
and the dry air near the surface, have cut back on POPs with
this update as this looks to be a mainly dry frontal passage.
There may be a few sprinkles or perhaps some snowflakes in
northern areas as the front passes, but any accumulations will
be a trace at best. Any precipitation will exit to the east by
mid to late morning Saturday with cooler air arriving through
the day with breezy northwesterly winds. Gusts to 20 to 30 mph
will be possible from late morning through evening with highs in
the upper 30s to near 50. However, these may be midnight or
early morning highs in many locations with temperatures holding
steady or dropping through the day. Some stronger gusts to 35 to
40 mph cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening
hours along the North Shore when CAA will be strongest.

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected for Sunday
into the new week with highs in the 30s and lower 40s, which
will be within a few degrees of normal. Northwesterly to zonal
flow will persist over the Upper Midwest for much of the week
with the main storm track remaining to our south. A system will
slide by to our south for Monday night into Tuesday, but has
been trending further south. Have kept some low POPs in far
southern areas but should this trend continue, would expect dry
conditions to prevail. There are hints at a more active pattern
heading into next weekend, but global models disagree on timing
and placement or the systems. While there are chances for
precipitation, these chances may miss the region as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will be passing through the region early this morning,
bringing light VFR rain showers. Ahead of this cold front, LLWS will
continue to be possible in KHYR, which will be ending following the
frontal passage. Expect skies to clear later this morning as drier
air moves in with northwest winds becoming breezy.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Easterly winds this evening will turn westerly then
northwesterly overnight as a cold front moves through. Winds
will increase after sunrise Saturday to 15 to 20 knots with
gusts to 25 to 30 knots. These winds will generate waves of 3 to
6 feet along the Bayfield Peninsula and Outer Apostle Islands.
There remains a low chance (10-20%) of gales along the North
Shore during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Winds
will remain northwesterly on Sunday and slowly diminish through
the day. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all the
nearshore waters of Lake Superior. Surface high pressure will
keep winds at 10 knots or less for Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 4 AM CST Sunday for
     LSZ121-147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday
     for LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM CST Sunday for
     LSZ142>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday
     for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...BJH