736
FXUS63 KDLH 092212
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
412 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snowfall associated with a clipper is moving into the
  Northland from the west now, and will continue spreading
  eastward this afternoon and evening. Greatest accumulations
  have shifted southward, with less than 2 inches now expected
  north of US-2.

- A period of several hours of heavy snow with rates around 1
  inch per hour is expected late this afternoon through this
  evening.

- Cold temperatures and additional chances of precipitation are
  expected later this week into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

SUMMARY OF HEADLINE CHANGES:

- Winter Weather Advisory for central St.Louis and southern Lake
  County areas has been cancelled.

- Winter Weather Advisory for Itasca County remains in effect.

- Winter Storm Warning for Carlton/South St. Louis, Douglas,
  Sawyer, and Price counties was downgraded to a Winter Weather
  Advisory.

- Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Cass, Aitkin, Crow
  Wing, Pine, Burnett, and Washburn counties.

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Bayfield,
  Ashland, and Iron counties.

----------

Snowfall associated with the second clipper of the week has
spread across portions of the Northland, with snow falling from
the Brainerd Lakes region southeastward to the I-35 corridor.
This area will continue to spread eastward this afternoon and
evening, with snowfall ending early Wednesday morning with lake
effects showers continuing through Wednesday for portions of
northwest Wisconsin. The main axis of snowfall has shifted
southward with the latest model guidance, leaving little to no
accumulation north of US2. Several adjustments were made to
headlines to reflect the southward shift in snowfall totals. See
those changes above.

The surface low associated with the clipper is now over
southeast ND and will continue diving quickly to the southeast,
crossing into southern WI tonight. The better forcing will clip
our southwest and southern counties through this evening. Steep
lapse rates aloft and saturated profiles through the column will
allow for moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates of 1-1.5in per
hour possible. There will likely be a swath of 5-6 inches
somewhere from southern Cass County to Burnett County, and it
might be a very narrow axis, with a dropoff northward to the
US-2 corridor, where 1-3 inches is expected from Itasca County
southeastward to the Twin Ports. Drier low level air behind
yesterday`s clipper has remained over the Arrowhead this
afternoon, and coupled with the shift southward of the better
forcing, this will further limit snowfall across the BWCA and
Arrowhead.

Winds have been slower to increase across the Northland and
western Lake Superior, with the slightly weaker low and
pressure gradient, and remain weak this afternoon. An increase
in winds is expected as the surface low moves into west central
MN this evening, but there will be less time for North Shore
lake effect bands near the head of the lake. While it is still
possible, winds will quickly turn to the northeast and then
north, limiting the potential for enhancement from the Twin
Ports up the North Shore. The snowfall totals in those area were
adjusted downward this afternoon.

Winds become northerly quickly early Wednesday, as the low is
well to our south and mid level winds become northwesterly. Snowfall
associated with the clipper will exit to the south and east, but
could see lake effect showers on the South Shore linger through
the day. A lobe of forcing within the backside of the upper
trough will shift over western areas tomorrow, and light snow
showers or flurries will remain possible through the day. There
might an additional half inch of accumulation across the
Brainerd Lakes area during the morning.

Colder air arrives behind this clipper for Wednesday and
Thursday, with temperatures 10-12 degrees below normal. Another
clipper will bring light snowfall to the area Thursday afternoon
into Friday, with light accumulations. More significant impact
for the end of the week is the much colder air arriving for the
weekend, with temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal. Highs on
Saturday will likely remain below 0F, with wind chills in the
-25 to -30F range. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A strong clipper will impact the Northland beginning this
afternoon with snowfall arriving at BRD by 20Z, and spreading
eastward through the late afternoon/early evening. For the next
few hours, light flurries are possible, mainly where cigs are
below 1kft with winds gradually increasing from the east to
southeast. Some fluctuation in cigs are possible before the
arrival of snow, with a mix of VFR down to IFR heights.

Heaviest snowfall is expected in a band, south of US-2, mainly
impacting BRD to south of HYR. At times, snowfall rates of
1-1.5"/hr are possible, reducing vis to less than 1 mile.
Outside of this heavy snow band, snow chances reduce from south
to north, with no mentionable snow chances at INL. Cigs will
settle to MVFR at most terminals through the afternoon, and falling
to IFR tonight at BRD, DLH, and HYR. Breezy easterly winds will
back to the northeast as the surface low moves to our south,
with gusts of 22-28kts, and back further to the north early
Wednesday morning.

Snowfall will end early Wednesday morning, with gusty north
winds continuing through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Another fast-moving clipper will pass to the south of the lake
tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will back
northeasterly and strengthen this evening and will become
hazardous for small craft. Gales of 35 to 40 knots are forecast
from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage where a Gale Warning is
in effect. Small Craft Advisories go into effect at 10 pm
tonight for the remainder of the waters. Wind gusts of 25 to 30
knots are expected. There is a 30-40% change of Gales spreading
southward to the Outer Apostles and South Shore zones after
midnight tonight, and the Gale Warning might need to be
expanded. Additionally, waves will build to 3 to 7 feet over
the southwest arm and along the waters of the South Shore. As
the clipper departs on Wednesday winds will back northwesterly
and diminish. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for
portions of the North Shore from late Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening. Cold air moving over the high terrain will
likely lead to katabatic winds from Silver Bay to Grand Portage.
Wind and waves will then relax for Thursday before increasing
again on Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ018-
     026.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ025-
     033>036.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ037.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ001.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for
     WIZ002>004-008-009.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ006-007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for LSZ121-142>148-150.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday
     for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA