366
FXUS63 KDLH 071733
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Frost Advisory remains in effect for parts of far northern
  MN this morning, with frost most likely where winds diminish
  and in sheltered areas.

- A widespread freeze is likely tonight into Wednesday morning
  with a Freeze Warning now in effect for the Northland.

- Temperatures warm through the rest of the week, with the best
  rain chances holding off until the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A weak front is moving through the region this morning, with
only a few showers noted across the Northland. Winds have
remained elevated, keeping temps in the 40s for most of the
area. Where winds have diminished, temps have fallen into the
mid 30s and likely seeing some patchy frost in those locations.

The bigger impact from this front will be the cooler, drier air
that advects into the area from central Canada. Winds will turn
to the northwest and be gusty at times, as surface high pressure
slides into the Upper Midwest. Highs today will be in the 50s
for much of the area, with a few upper 40s in the Arrowhead, as
dewpoints fall into the 20s and lower 30s. Surface ridging
settles over the area tonight, with calming surface winds, light
boundary layer winds, and clear skies. This setup promotes good
cooling, and expect below-freezing temperatures areawide.
Cannot rule out mid 20s in the typically cooler spots. The
Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight
through Wednesday morning.

Surface ridging moves to the east Wednesday, allowing for a
return to southerly flow. The airmass will modify through the
rest of the week, with daytime temperatures warming into the 60s
by the end of the week, and overnight lows back above freezing
each night. A clipper drops into the area late in the week, but
the system remains moisture starved and will only carry
scattered rain chances in the Arrowhead Thursday night. Another
push of dry air accompanies the clipper, with only a slight cool
down Friday night into Saturday. A larger trough will move
through the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies for the end
of the week, with much better moisture return into the Northland
for the weekend. Right now, best rain chances arrive Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A dry cold front has pushed southeast of the area with northwest
winds of 7-12 kts and gusts of 15-20 kts continuing until late
afternoon before becoming light and variable to calm this
evening and tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Expect
southerly winds towards the end of the TAF period tomorrow.
Aside from SCT to BKN VFR cumulus across far northern Minnesota
this afternoon, expect clear skies to prevail through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

West winds shift back to northwesterly this morning as a cold
air mess enters the region. Downsloping gusty winds around 25
knots from the northwest are expected this morning and continue
through mid-day. Expect a decrease in wind speeds then through
the afternoon hours. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
Taconite Harbor northward and for the Outer Apostle Islands in
this time period. High pressure overhead tonight into Wednesday
creates calm winds slowly shifting to southerly. Breezy winds
from the southwest may create conditions hazardous for small
craft near Grand Portage Thursday afternoon.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140-
     141.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ147-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...HA