236
FXUS63 KDLH 292137
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
337 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A heavy band or two of lake effect snow are expected to impact
  areas around the head of the lake and across the South Shore
  this evening and overnight. Accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are
  expected and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
  Southern St. Louis, Carlton, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and
  Iron Counties.


- Light to moderate snow is expected elsewhere across the Northland
this evening and overnight. A dusting to a couple inches is
possible, highest amounts in NW WI. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect for Price County.

- Colder temperatures into the work week with additional passing
  chances of snow with weak clipper systems.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

With webcam visibilities dropping to < 0.5 miles in the seeder-
feeder lake effect enhancements, opted to include Southern St.
Louis and Carlton in a Winter Weather Advisory. With the current
snowfall rates under these blobs, could see localized amounts in
excess of 3 inches. These heavier snow bands should slowly shift
south of the Twin Ports after 9 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

As expected, lake effect snow bands pushed out into Western Lake
Superior overnight, to then turn and start to pushing onshore
through today, with an additional synoptic boost of moisture from
the larger low pressure system to our south. However, not quite
expected was just how far north this band managed to get, with a
convergence zone band affecting areas along the North Shore near
Silver Bay/Little Marais through this morning. A secondary area of
lake effect snow (LES) has developed towards the head of the lake
early this afternoon with winds turning northeast from Two Harbors
to Port Wing and southwest, along with synoptic moisture possibly
leading to a bit of a seeder-feeder situation amplifying the
firehose of snow into the Twin Ports and down the St. Louis River
valley.

We`re finally seeing some of the winds further out in western Lake
Superior turn ENE early this afternoon, which as those pick up and
push onshore, should help the more northern LES convergence band
sweep down to the Twin Ports and then onto the South Shore.
Especially as this band overlaps with the best northeast winds and
synoptic moisture/support it should be able to produce some heftier
snowfall rates for the South Shore from Douglas to Iron County as
the winds go from northeast to northwest. Hi-res models are still
varying run to run on exactly where along the South Shore the
heaviest bands of accumulation end up setting up, but I have
generally good confidence in the higher terrain seeing 2-5", with
localized amounts in excess of 6" possible. As winds turn northwest
and the lake effect bullseye focuses back on northern Iron County,
there is about a 20-25% chance for 8"+ for areas from Upson to
Hurley along Hwy 77. A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect
for the South Shore beginning at 6pm tonight through the overnight
hours.

Elsewhere, light to moderate synoptic snow has blossomed early this
afternoon as the low pressure system moves over Iowa/Illinois and
has pushed enough moisture into the Northland for saturation. Areas
of possible light accumulation of a couple tenths of a inch have
expanded across much of the Northland, with amounts of an inch or
more expected along the I-35 corridor and east, with the highest
amounts outside of the South Shore being 2-5" in Price County, where
a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Some light lake effect
snow is possible again into Sunday morning coming off of the large
inland lakes as well.

Even colder air is expected to be pulled into the Northland behind
this system bringing highs in the teens and lows below zero for the
beginning of the work week. Through next week, global models are in
decent agreement that we`ll remain under northwest flow with a low
over Hudson Bay. This could spit off some little shortwaves that
have the potential to bring some clipper type systems to the
Northland with additional light snow accumulations. The first looks
to be Monday evening into Tuesday but this system is fairly moisture-
starved so accumulations would likely be minimal. Global models
highlight more chances for light snow Tuesday night- Wednesday and
then something towards the end of the week as well. While most of
these systems don`t currently look like they would bring warning
level amounts of snow, we do look to just keep slowly adding light
to moderate amounts every couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Current mix of MVFR to VFR conditions will gradually worsen as a
low pressure system over Missouri tracks northeast into the
lower Great Lakes. Light snow on the northern extent of this
system will spread into KBRD/KHYR with MVFR conditions this
afternoon, possibly IFR visibilities in snow at KHYR this
evening and near-IFR ceilings tonight. The northern extent of
the light snow could reach to KDLH/KHIB late this afternoon and
evening, also with MVFR conditions.

Additionally, a convergent lake-effect snow band or bands
along/north of KTWM early this afternoon will gradually shift
southeast into KDLH briefly later this afternoon/early evening
as surface winds turn northeast and then shift into the South
Shore this evening and tonight as winds back northerly to north-
northwesterly. Reduced visibility, IFR or lower at times, and
IFR ceilings would be possible for a few hours as the snow band
passes through.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Northeast winds become dominant across Western Lake Superior through
the rest of this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 15-20
knots and gusts up to 25 knots forcing waves of 2 to 6 feet are
expected, especially for the South Shore to Saxon Harbor. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds become northwest overnight
into Sunday which are likely to remain strong at least through
midday Sunday. Gusts in excess of 25 knots are expected and
extensions of Small Craft Advisories are possible. There is a 10-40%
chance for some gales along the North Shore Sunday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ037.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-140>142-
     146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolfe
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Levens