717
FXUS63 KDLH 290558
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1158 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of snow Saturday for areas from Brainerd to the Twin
Ports and southeast, with the best chance for an inch or more across
NW WI.

- A heavy band of lake effect snow may bring a short lived period of
intense snowfall to Bayfield and Ashland County late Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect. Light lake effect snow is expected for Iron and Douglas
County.

- Colder temperatures into the work week with additional passing
  chances of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Synoptic moisture has been hesitant to get out of the Northland as
previously thought, which has led to persistent overcast skies with
flurries through today. That should come to an end overnight as
cloud bases lift and scatter a bit, winds die down, and slightly
more low to mid level dryness briefly interrupts snowflake
production. However, with cold 850 temps and a warm lake, some light
lake effect clouds and snow may keep up along the South Shore.

Overnight, we finally see northwesterly winds come to an end. On the
South Shore and out over portions of the nearshore waters of Lake
Superior there, winds should briefly turn southwesterly into
Saturday morning, pushing the ongoing lake effect snow (LES) just
offshore and into a convergence zone as winds further out on the
lake start to become northeasterly. Through the day Saturday, as a
larger synoptic system approaches from the south, winds become
northeasterly across all of Western Lake Superior and pick up, which
should bring this LES band onshore, sweeping from north to southeast
as winds turn northwesterly once again into Sunday. The exact
placement of this band will be dependent on 1) how far offshore the
LES pushes to begin with and 2) the track of the low pressure system
to our south, which will dictate how easterly winds over the lake
become. If winds are more easterly, a LES band would have the
potential to move more over Two Harbors and the Twin Ports. With
this forecast, the best confidence is in a LES band or two to
primarily impact the Bayfield Peninsula, areas southwest of
Chequamegon Bay, and portions of northern Ashland County, and a
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Based on timing from latest
CAMs, this band would move onshore and really get going sometime in
the 3-6pm timeframe before pushing south and east. Snowfall rates in
excess of 1"/hour are possible as these kind of setups have the
potential to overproduce. Our current forecast calls for 1-5" of
snow over Bayfield and Ashland County but locally higher amounts of
6" or more are possible.

For that system to our south, some widespread snow is possible for
portions of the Northland. A wide trough makes its way into the
Central Plains Saturday, on track to bring heavy snow to areas to
our south with a surface low pressure tracking from the Oklahoma
panhandle to the Quad Cities and over Lake Huron. Areas along the I-
35 corridor and east across NW WI could see an inch or two of
snowfall outside of lake effect snow belts, except portions of Price
County which could see a little more, 1-4" (A Winter Weather
Advisory may be needed here). As winds turn northwest, some light
lake effect snow should continue for Iron County and may start up
again downstream of large inland lakes Sunday.

Even colder air is expected to be pulled into the Northland behind
this system bringing highs in the teens and lows below zero for the
beginning of the work week. Through next week, global models are in
decent agreement that we`ll remain under northwest flow with a low
over Hudson Bay. This could spit off some little shortwaves that
have the potential to bring some clipper type systems to the
Northland with additional light snow accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

MVFR ceilings continue to linger across much of the Northland.
There is a hole around KDLH and KHIB, which I expect to fill in
overnight, though there may be several hours of mixed MVFR/VFR
conditions before the ceilings fill in and lower. Today a system
moves across the Midwest, remaining mostly south of the region.
However, KBRD and KHYR will receive a period of MVFR conditions
in light snow beginning during the early morning hours, and
lingering through the early evening hours before conditions
improve. There is also potential for convergent lake effect snow
bands to form. Depending on the track of these bands they could
greatly impact DLH with reduced visibility and high snowfall
rates. These have been left out of the terminals for now, but
the potential is there.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 229 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Northwest winds should continue to calm into this evening, briefly
becoming southwest along the South Shore before northeast winds
become dominant across Western Lake Superior through the day
Saturday. These NE winds have trended up with the latest forecast,
with sustained winds of 15-20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots forcing
waves of 2 to 6 feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.
Into Sunday, winds become northwest again and strong winds,
especially along the North Shore, are likely once more. Gusts in
excess of 25 knots are expected and extensions of Small Craft
Advisories are possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday
     for WIZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Levens