346
FXUS63 KDLH 160922
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
322 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected today into Monday as high pressure dominates
  the pattern. High temps will be around 5-10 degrees cooler
  than yesterday.

- Low pressure will likely just graze southern portions of the Northland
  on Monday evening into Tuesday morning with a wintry mix.
  Little to no accumulation is expected.

- A more active pattern develops late this upcoming week, but
  the potential for large, impactful low pressure systems
  remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Clear skies are being observed this morning as high pressure remains
in control of conditions over the Northland. These clear skies are
expected to continue today through tonight, with only a few clouds
occurring in the tip of the Arrowhead this morning. High
temperatures today will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, with northwest
winds easing through the day as the center of the high pressure
moves into north-central Minnesota. Similar to yesterday, dry
conditions are expected with low min RH. Given that min RH yesterday
dropping into the 20-25% range for much of the southern half of the
CWA, min RH was lowered well below the NBM today to account for
diurnal mixing and the typically dry pine barrens in northwest
Wisconsin. Caution should be used with fire today due to these dry
conditions.

Monday will see quiet conditions continue during the day as high
pressure slowly propagates east across the CWA. While Monday will
continue to be dry, cloud cover is expected to increase in the
afternoon for the southern half of the CWA as low pressure moves
into the Midwest. Global models show this low pressure originating
from cutoff low pressure currently over southern California, which
will bring moisture from an atmospheric river over the West Coast
into the central CONUS late Monday into early Tuesday morning. This
system will also be tapping into Gulf moisture as well, which will
help develop a band of precip along an area of enhanced FGEN in
southern MN and western WI. Run to run comparisons of recent models
show that the bulk of this precip on Monday evening into Tuesday
morning will most likely remain south of the area. In the forecast
update this morning, the northern gradient of PoPs was trimmed to
keep much of the rain/snow mix in the far southern CWA to reflect
these run-to-run model trends.

Following the departure of precip chances on Tuesday morning, an
active pattern will potentially develop over the CWA as the ridge
over the central CONUS breaks down and a series of shortwaves move
through the area. The best chance for widespread precip in this more
active pattern will be on Wednesday night through Thursday. Global
models are in decent agreement regarding an Alberta Clipper track
low pressure quickly moving through the CWA around this timeframe.
Where uncertainly lies at this time is mainly in regards to
precipitation type, as 850mb temps will be around the 0 degC mark.
This could lead to messy p-types on Thursday, especially in the
Arrowhead and far north-central MN where temps will be close to, if
not slightly below, freezing. Expect precip associated with this
clipper to exit on Friday morning.

Also noteworthy late this upcoming week is a larger, more robust low
pressure moving into the Midwest as a Panhandle Hook type system
develops. Deterministic global models continue to keep the area of
heavier precip developing within the deformation zone south of the
CWA. This will be a system to monitor for potential northward shifts
in the storm track, but confidence in this is not high given the
large spatial distribution of low pressure centers from global
ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure keeps
skies clear for much of the region. Northwest winds will
occasionally be gusty, especially in the Arrowhead, through the
period. These northwest winds will be easing Sunday evening and
become variable as the high pressure center moves into north-central
Minnesota on Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Northwest winds continue early this morning, especially along the
North Shore due to downslope winds from the higher terrain. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore waters of
western Lake Superior and will continue into the late afternoon
hours today. As high pressure moves into northern Minnesota tonight,
expect northwest winds to diminish. On Monday, this surface high
pressure will keep winds at 10 knots or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
     140-141-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for
     LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh