984
FXUS63 KDLH 071855
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder weather is moving in and will stick around through the
  weekend.

- Lake-effect snow is expected along the South Shore today, with
  a more significant round possible late Saturday into early
  Monday.

- The higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties should see at
  least 4 to 8 inches of snow from the weekend system and
  possibly more than 8 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A cold front will sweep south across the Northland this
afternoon, bringing cooler air to everyone. This front will also
trigger some scattered rain and snow showers in northwest
Wisconsin this afternoon - with a gravity wave already apparent
on radar. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 30s, so
it should be rain for now. As the cold air moves over Lake
Superior, rain will turn to light lake-effect snow along the
South Shore. Most areas will see minimal amounts, but the higher
terrain in central Ashland and northern Iron counties could
pick up a half-inch to an inch of snow before it tapers off
tonight.

Most of Saturday should be dry, but the cold air will remain in
place. Another disturbance dropping down from Canada will bring a
chance for scattered light snow showers Saturday night into Sunday,
mainly for areas along and north of US-2 in Minnesota and across
northwest Wisconsin. This won`t amount to much, though the very
cold air could also spark a few flurries downwind of the larger
inland Minnesota lakes. The main weather story this weekend will
be a more organized round of lake-effect snow developing along
the South Shore, expected to start late Saturday and continue
through Monday morning. The setup looks favorable for the higher
elevations of Ashland and northern Iron counties to see 4 to 8
inches or more of accumulation by Monday morning. Lake-induced
CAPE values exceed 700 J/kg on Sunday morning, so the snow could
be heavy at times! Issued a Winter Weather Advisory to highlight
this threat. This weekend will feel much more winter-like, with
highs only in the upper 20s to 30s. Most locations on Sunday may
not even get above the freezing mark. Lake effect snow continues.

Looking ahead to next week, the lake-effect snow along the South
Shore should wind down by Monday afternoon as slightly less cold
air moves back into the region. The general weather pattern appears
to favor occasional weak disturbances passing through, bringing
off-and-on chances for light rain showers or flurries. Temperatures
are expected to moderate, climbing back closer to normal for
mid-November with highs returning to the mid-30s and mid-40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

MVFR becoming VFR from north to south into the overnight hours.
Maybe a few IFR vsbys as -sn move through today. Gusty north
winds become light northerly flow after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1252 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Northerly winds with gusts of 20 to 30 knots should create
waves of 4 to 7 feet along the South Shore. These hazardous
conditions are covered by Small Craft Advisories for some of
the nearshore waters.

Winds and waves will weaken late tonight into Saturday before
increasing again Saturday evening through Monday morning. This next
system will likely require new Small Craft Advisories and will also
bring snow showers, which could reduce visibility over the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday
     for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-
     141-147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe