739
FXUS63 KDLH 080930
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below-normal temperatures persist into Monday.

- Periods of light snow/flurries move through the Northland
  today and Sunday.

- More pronounced lake-effect snow is expected along the South
  Shore later today into early Monday. Higher terrain of Ashland
  and Iron counties should see 4 to 8 inches of snow, with
  localized amounts of 8+ inches not out of the question.

- Temperatures warm a bit again next week, with occasional light
  rain/snow possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

This Weekend - Early Monday:

We will start off this morning dry and fairly cold, with lows
in the teens for much of northeast MN where low clouds have
cleared and 20s from central MN east to much of northwest WI
where low clouds are/will hang around longer. Most of the
Northland should expect predominately dry conditions for much
of today as a low pressure system over the Dakotas slides
southeast into Iowa, with the associated precipitation remaining
to our west and south. With that said, a cold airmass in place
with 850 mb temperatures of -10C to -15C across the Upper
Midwest will aid in the development of some lake-effect clouds
and light lake-effect snow showers downwind (i.e. to the south
and southeast) of larger inland Minnesota Lakes, particularly
off of Lake of the Woods where a narrow band of a couple inches
of snow could accumulate downwind of it into far western
Koochiching County. Away from inland lakes, there will also be
some saturation in the dendritic growth zone in north-central
and northeast Minnesota starting this afternoon, so we have
introduced some flurries this afternoon/evening as thermal
profiles and surface temperatures should remain cold enough to
keep precipitation as all snow. Can`t rule out some of these
becoming sporadic light snow showers, but little to no
accumulations are expected.

A closed upper-level low over James Bay and far northern Ontario
today will then drop shortwave energy south through the
Northland later this evening into Sunday, bringing scattered
light snow showers to locations mainly along and north of US-2
in MN and to most of northwest WI. Expect minimal accumulations
with this snowfall. Otherwise, the main concern will be a more
prominent round of lake-effect snow developing along the South
Shore later today through Sunday before tapering off on Monday
morning. Lake Superior sfc to 850 mb temperature differences
around 20C should drive the development of ample lake-induced
instability values of 400-700 J/kg, which when combined with
terrain enhancement in the Penokee and Gogebic ranges of
central Ashland to central/northern Iron Counties could produce
snowfall amounts upwards of 4-8". Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued for Ashland and Iron counties to cover this threat.
Also can`t completely rule out locally 8+ by the time snow ends
Monday morning in the higher terrain of northern Iron County,
with the probability of this occurring around 20-30%. Hourly
snowfall rates on daytime Sunday could also approach 0.5-1" per
hour when the best synoptic forcing will overlap the maximized
lake-effect processes, likely reducing visibilities. Snow totals
will depend on how robust snow rates can get daytime Sunday and
how much dry air may move into the South Shore later on Sunday
into Sunday night. The lake-effect machine is forecast to end
towards late Monday morning/Monday afternoon as much drier air
and warming 850 mb temperatures move in.

Temperatures will also be below average this weekend into
Monday, with highs in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s and lows in
the teens to around 20F tonight and Sunday night. Most
locations on Sunday may not even get above freezing for high
temperatures.

Next Week:

A general northwest flow pattern aloft settles in through much
of next week, though periodic shortwaves/clippers pass through
the Upper Midwest. This includes an Alberta Clipper Monday night
and Tuesday with flurry/light snow chances and more subtle
shortwave energy on Wednesday and Wednesday night with potential
for a light rain/snow mix. Moisture with these systems looks
limited at this juncture, so have kept precipitation chances on
the lower side at 10-30%. Temperatures do return closer to
normal for mid-November much of next week with highs in the
mid-30s to mid-40s and lows in the 20s.

Ensemble guidance and CPC forecasts point to fairly good
agreement in an upper-level ridge sliding over the central CONUS
late next week into next weekend, which could bring a return of
above-average temperatures once again in that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

An MVFR to near-MVFR deck of stratus affecting BRD/HYR continues
to slowly shift south as drier air works in from the north.
Expect the MVFR conditions to hold on longest at HYR, with a
return to VFR conditions by mid to late morning as drier air
finally works in there. With a colder airmass in place, some
light lake-effect snow showers/MVFR clouds will be possible
downstream of larger inland lakes, though the wind direction
would generally favor INL remaining east of lake-effect snow
from Lake of the Woods and just west of any lake-effect snow
flurries from Rainy Lake should any develop. There will be some
saturation in the 3-7 kft layer for much of the area today above
some drier low-level air, so can`t completely rule out some more
scattered flurries in northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, but did not include a prevailing mention in the TAFs
due to limited coverage potential and low confidence in
locations. Dry conditions expected otherwise. Light northerly
winds through this morning increase this afternoon and evening,
with gusts of 15-20 kt.

A low pressure system tonight into Sunday will bring a return
of light snow with very limited accumulations to a fairly large
swath of the Northland and ramp up lake-effect snow along the
South Shore of Lake Superior, especially near IWD and in Iron
County.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Lighter north to northwest winds today will increase again this
evening through Monday morning, leading to 2 to 5 ft waves along
much of the South Shore that will be highest from the Outer
Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior to
cover these winds and waves through early Monday. The system
causing these winds will also bring snow showers, and especially
lake-effect snow showers for the South Shore later today into
early Monday with reduced visibilities in the snow showers.

Stronger winds and increasing waves pick back up out of the
southwest on Tuesday, then turn northwesterly and stay elevated
for Tuesday night into Thursday. Additional hazardous
conditions are possible in this timeframe. There is a 10-30%
chance for gale-force winds in western Lake Superior on
Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Monday for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for LSZ121-145>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday
     for LSZ140>144.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein