384
FXUS63 KDLH 102329
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
529 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few weak clippers will pass by Thursday and Friday. Light
  snow amounts are expected.

- Bitterly cold air is expected over the weekend. Highs will struggle
  to rise above zero Saturday and Sunday, and lows in the teens
  below with wind chills in the 20s to 30s below zero are
  expected Saturday and Sunday mornings.

- A warmup is expected next week with temperatures rising into
  the 20s above zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Following the departure of the snowy clipper from last night, cooler
air is filtering into the Northland today. While most of the
accumulation has ended, expect a few lingering flurries as
clouds slowly clear out, initially from northeast to southwest
this afternoon and evening as some dry air works its way in.
Overnight lows will drop significantly as arctic air begins its
initial approach with lows falling into the single digits below
zero tonight for most places. Winds shifting slightly west of
north tonight should keep the bulk of any lake-effect snow
focused over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, though the South
Shore in Wisconsin may see some light flurries or a dusting.

It`s looking like a quiet start to Thursday as high pressure briefly
takes control. However, a very weak shortwave passing through the
region could deliver a glancing blow of light snow to the Brainerd
Lakes area and greater north-central Minnesota by Thursday
afternoon. This will likely be minor with totals not likely to
exceed half an inch or so. By Friday, a more defined clipper
system and cold front move through. While most areas will see
less than an inch of accumulation, we are monitoring a few
models that suggest potential for slightly higher amounts
locally up to one or two inches particularly in the Arrowhead
region if QPF ends up on the high end. The South Shore
(particularly northern Iron County) should start seeing some
light lake-effect snow following the clipper/cold front as well.

The most significant story for the forecast period is the plunge
into bitter cold for the weekend. Confidence is high that arctic air
will settle over the region, with high temperatures on Saturday
struggling to climb above zero degrees. Overnight low temperatures
are projected to fall into the -15 degree range Saturday and Sunday
mornings (probability is around 40-80% for much of the region
to see temperatures of -15 degrees or colder, especially to the
west in north-central Minnesota). These won`t necessarily be
ideal radiational cooling nights with some fairly tight pressure
gradients expected with the northwest flow. 850-hPa temperatures
plunging to around -25C or so will be the culprit for the cold
temperatures. Winds combined with these cold temperatures will
generate bitterly cold wind chills in the -20s to -30s. There is
a low but non-zero chance (around 10-20 percent) that wind
chills could plummet to near -40 in north-central Minnesota.
Folks should ensure cold weather kits are ready in vehicles and
limit time outdoors this weekend. A warming trend returns early
next week, bringing temperatures back closer to seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

An area of MVFR stratus and flurries continue in north-central MN
this evening. For the other TAF sites, skies are expected to be
mostly clear through tonight as stratus remains over north-central
MN. There has been a strong increasing trend for freezing fog
development tonight over KHYR with recent model guidance strongly
suggesting fog. Therefore, LIFR was introduced in this update,
although confidence in this LIFR fog is a 35% chance. For Thursday,
cigs will largely be VFR with the potential for VFR snow showers in
the late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Northwest winds remain elevated into tonight, particularly along the
North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage where gusts up to 25-
30 knots are possible through late tonight. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect into tonight. Waves of 1 to 3 feet will
gradually subside early this evening. Winds will back to the
west-southwest gradually on Thursday into Thursday night with
speeds becoming light. Attention turns to Friday when winds will
become northwesterly with a potent cold front and weak clipper
system. Expect gusty winds to develop Friday and into the
weekend. There is a 10-40% chance for some gales for parts of
the North Shore Friday night into Saturday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...JDS