756
FXUS63 KDLH 230535
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1135 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and warm through midday Monday.

- Rain moves in as early as late Monday afternoon with a
  several-day-long storm system. Rain changes to snow Tuesday
  night into Wednesday with some accumulating snow possible for
  several places along with gusty winds at times.

- Cold weather will move in starting Wednesday, and wintertime
  temperatures are expected for the near future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A broad upper level trough is passing through and keeping some
low clouds around northeast Minnesota. Elsewhere, skies are
mostly sunny. High pressure will pass by to the south tonight,
and on Sunday, winds will gradually become southerly into the
afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 40s for
most and even low 50s in east-central Minnesota into parts of
northwest Wisconsin. Expect a mix of clouds and sun. The
southerly flow will continue on Monday, leading to another mild
and quiet day until rain starts arriving from the south
potentially during the late afternoon, if not evening from south
to north.

The messy storm system that we`ve been talking about for a few
days is still on track to affect the Northland very late in the
day Monday through potentially Thursday. There have been some
notable changes with the latest model runs, and I will focus on
that and associated impacts. First, what remains the same is a
two-phased system with a low coming at us from the south and
essentially merging with one approaching from the west. Not much
has changed there, but what has changed is that models are now
suggesting that the dry slot following Tuesday`s initial burst
of rain, which was anticipated to have a suppressing impact on
snow accumulations, may not actually affect our region quite as
much as previously anticipated. Instead, there are more model
members suggesting that the low moving in from the west will
track essentially overhead on Tuesday, and the precipitation
associated with it may affect a good portion of the Northland
into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. With cold temperatures
associated with this second low, we should see a transition from
rain to mainly snow sometime Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.
There could potentially be some pretty favorable vertical lift
for several hours Tuesday evening ahead of the upper level
trough, and several (but definitely not all) ensembles of both
GFS and ECMWF suggest a period of moderate to potentially heavy
snow somewhere in the region. With that, uncertainty remains
very high because ensembles are all over the place with timing
and amounts, and seeing rather stark changes in just a few model
runs illustrates to me that there are a lot of moving parts to
these merging low pressure systems that the models are
struggling to fully make sense of. Therefore, we can start to
consider the possibility of a snowier solution to this storm
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a boost in QPF
amounts, but I`m not sold on it yet. Expect more forecast
changes in the next couple days.

All things considered, there is high confidence that we will see
a period of rain on Tuesday with initially warm temperatures. As
we go into Tuesday evening and night, confidence becomes low
with precipitation amounts (both QPF and resultant snowfall) and
figuring out which areas may see several inches of snowfall
accumulation associated with the potential several hour period
of strong ascent and lingering higher PWATs with the secondary
low. Here are the latest thoughts on probabilities for certain
snowfall amounts:

>= 1": 40-80%, highest in northern Minnesota and the South
Shore.
>= 3": 20-50% in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
away from Lake Superior, and 50-80% in northern Minnesota and
the South Shore.
>= 6": up to 20-50% in north-central Minnesota towards the
Arrowhead. Up to 40-70% in Iron Co, WI.
>= 10": Best chance (~40%) in northern Iron Co. 10-20% chance
somewhere in northeast Minnesota.

Snow that does fall Tuesday night should be of the heavy/wet
variety initially, but may become closer to "fluffy" Wednesday
morning. Some blowing snow may be possible with gusty winds
getting up toward 30-35 mph.

Lingering light snow is possible through Thursday with light
accumulations. The exception will be the usual snowbelt areas
along the South Shore as cold -10 to -15C 850-hPa temperatures
move in and turn on the lake-effect machine. The bulk of snow
accumulations there are likely to be Wednesday into Wednesday
night with lingering light snow into Thursday and Thursday
night.

The pattern looks to remain active going into next weekend with
broad troughing to the west and ridging east. This sets us up in
a Colorado low-style storm track with models hinting at the
potential for a larger system somewhere in the Midwest. If it
happens and the track favors any part of the Northland, the air
will be plenty cold for it to be all snow. So, we`ll be keeping
an eye on that one.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Main concern
is the potential for some marginal LLWS this morning. Surface
winds look to stay in the 5-10 mph range, which will prevent
this from occurring. If winds go calm, however, there may be
some low end LLWS with winds of 30-35 knots aloft.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Marginally favorable conditions for downsloping katabatic winds
are looking to develop along the North Shore for a several-hour
period tonight. I upgraded the Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage
areas to a short-duration Gale Warning tonight as winds may
reach and hover around 35 kt for a few hours. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect elsewhere through early Sunday morning
with gusty west to northwest winds. Winds are expected to lessen
Sunday through early Tuesday. Then, a storm system is expected
to bring rain and mixed precipitation Monday night and into
Wednesday. Breezy conditions will accompany the storm through
around Thursday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed at
times. Gales may be possible (10-25% chances) around Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for LSZ121-146>148-
     150.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for LSZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...JDS