715
FXUS63 KDLH 091751
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds today with rain showers late this afternoon
  into tonight. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are forecast.
  Stronger gusts to 35 mph are expected in central Minnesota.

- Slightly cooler Friday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
  A little warmer Saturday and Sunday with highs generally in
  the low to middle 60s.

- More rain Sunday into Monday followed by cooler temperatures
  into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

It`s a clear and cool morning out there with freezing
temperatures in northwest Wisconsin and in some of the cold
spots in northeast Minnesota, but temperatures are in the 40s
and even 50s in north-central Minnesota as warmer air is
advecting north with southerly flow. A fairly tight pressure
gradient will result in some breezy conditions today with wind
gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Humidity should be higher today than
yesterday, so fire weather conditions may be a bit elevated with
the gusty winds, but not likely to reach near-critical. Clouds
will be on the increase during the afternoon as a cold front
moves into the region from the west and passes through during
the late afternoon and overnight. Showers are expected to
develop along this front. While thunder is not likely, a stray
storm or two can`t be ruled out mainly in east-central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with just a bit of MUCAPE
possible. Otherwise, expect showers with rainfall totals up to a
tenth of an inch or two, highest in the Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin.

As the front passes through tonight, winds are expected to shift
to northwesterly, and they will be a bit breezy (gusts to around
or just above 20 mph). A few wraparound showers are possible,
mainly in the Arrowhead. Otherwise, temperatures will briefly
cool a bit Friday. As surface high pressure moves in from the
west, clouds should start to clear through the day.

High pressure will move east through Saturday and southerly flow
is expected to redevelop with more warm air advection. High
temperatures are expected to moderate a bit this weekend with
highs in the 60s for most places (cooler along the North Shore).

A messy area of upper-level cyclonic vorticity and moisture will
advect into the region Saturday night into Sunday in-tandem with
a warm front. With that, we`ll get some more rain chances.
Ensembles are in pretty decent agreement with bringing a
widespread quarter to half inch of rain or so. Some higher
amounts to around three quarters of an inch may be possible
(~15% chance). At this time, this looks like it will be almost
exclusively synoptically-forced rain rather than convective. So,
a bit of a rainy Sunday into Monday, then we may get a cold
front after surface low pressure (taking a track from ~Montana
Sunday northeast to Manitoba/Ontario Monday) moves away from our
region. Following that, we`ll probably see some cooler fall
weather for the middle of next week. With some broad troughing
possible over the western CONUS, we may get into a bit more of
an active weather pattern. Perhaps some more rain chances later
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Clouds over western MN to NW Ontario will continue to build
eastward this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers are
forecast to develop this afternoon and advance eastward through
the evening. A cold front over the Dakotas will move east
through the Northland late tonight and early Friday morning.
Winds will be gusty this afternoon from the south ahead of the
front and will veer northwesterly for Friday. LLWS will be a
concern tonight as a strong southwesterly low-level jet is
forecast. Strong northwest winds aloft will follow behind the
cold front. As of this afternoon forecast soundings suggest a
well-mixed boundary layer due to cool air advection Friday which
should result in sustained winds of 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25
kts which would reduce the risk of LLWS.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Gusty southwest winds are expected to develop today ahead of a
cold front. Winds will start off strongest between Grand Marais
and Grand Portage this morning with wave heights building up to
around 3 to 6 ft tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect there this morning through Friday morning. Additionally,
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the entire South
Shore starting this evening and lasting through tonight as gusts
up to 25 kt are expected there. Rain showers are expected as the
cold front passes through tonight, then a wind shift to
northwesterly is expected Friday. Current Small Craft Advisories
cover the period of gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the cold
front through early Friday morning, but additional Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed Friday with gusty northwest
winds up to around 25 kt. Wind speeds gradually decrease going
into Saturday as high pressure passes through.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Friday for LSZ121-145>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...JDS