233
FXUS63 KDLH 030006
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
606 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds continue this afternoon with a Wind Advisory
  remaining in effect for much of the area until 6 PM CST.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
  on Monday due to breezy west to west-northwest winds and dry
  RH.

- Chances for precipitation increase mid to late this upcoming
  week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

The main story early this afternoon has been strong southwest winds
proceeding a cold front. These strong southwest winds have been
occurring as a tight pressure gradient has developed over the
region between cutoff low pressure in the mid-Mississippi Valley
and a shortwave moving into western Ontario. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect until 6pm CST this evening for much of the CWA
due to the potential of wind gusts up to 45 mph. While
observations so far this afternoon have largely been less than
45 mph, there is still the potential for these strong winds over
the next several hours, especially in northwest WI where the
probability of gusts in excess of 45 mph is greatest (up to 80%
chance).

Despite the presence of radar reflectivity across the area
today, there have been very few reports of precipitation at the
surface. Model soundings reveal that a sizable layer of low-
level dry air is present across the CWA, which has resulted in
much of the rain falling as virga. A better chance for
precipitation at the surface arrives this evening following the
cold frontal passage. There will be a 40% chance for scattered
showers in the Arrowhead north of the Iron Range, as the lower
levels saturate. Overall precipitation amounts are forecast to
be light this evening into tonight, with very high confidence in
less than a tenth of an inch of rain (75- 100% chance). These
scattered showers in the far northern portion of the CWA will
come to an end tonight with skies clearing.

Skies are expected to be mostly sunny to sunny on Monday, with west
to west-northwest winds remaining breezy. While winds won`t be as
strong as today, there is a 70+% chance that wind gusts on Monday
will meet or exceed 25 mph across the CWA. When combined with
moderately dry RH in the 25-30% range, this will create elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions on Monday. Winds will finally
ease Monday night into Tuesday morning as the trough that will be
moving into western Ontario today propagates well to the east and
zonal flow develops over the region.

Quieter weather is forecast on Tuesday in terms of winds and fire
weather concerns, with a chance for rain showers on Tuesday evening
into early Wednesday morning as a shortwave quickly propagates
through the area. More active weather will potentially settle over
the CWA for the latter half of the week into the weekend as a series
of shortwaves are ejected into the Great Lakes region from a
vertically-stacked low pressure near Hudson Bay. While it is
still way too early for specifics, these systems will be ones to
monitor as there are early indications in global ensembles for
mixed precipitation or potentially even light snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

A cold front will advance across the area this evening, causing
strong gusty southwest winds to veer to west to northwest by
06z tonight. Behind the front, winds will initially remain
strong and gusty, then diminish for the early morning hours,
only to increase again in the 15z to 22z time range.
Predominantly VFR conditions this evening may deteriorate to
MVFR for KINL and possible also KHIB and KDLH with scattered
showers behind the front for several hours. Clear skies move in
from the west after 06z tonight, and persist through the
remainder of the TAF period. &&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Strong southwest winds and elevated wave heights continue this
afternoon across western Lake Superior with Gale Warnings remaining
in effect into this evening. Following a cold frontal passage this
evening into tonight, winds will ease somewhat. The exception will
be along the North Shore, where there are indications of gale-force
downslope winds from the higher terrain tonight into Monday morning.
With winds remaining elevated through Monday, Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed across western Lake Superior. As the cold
front and associated low pressure move farther east on Monday night,
winds are expected to ease.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for MNZ020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-144-145-
     148.
     Gale Warning until noon CST Monday for LSZ140>143-146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Unruh