080
FXUS63 KDLH 241124
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
524 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and warm today.

- Rain begins tonight before mixing with snow Tuesday then
  becoming all snow Tuesday afternoon. Snow will then continue
  Tuesday night and Wednesday before tapering off late
  Wednesday. Accumulating snow is expected for much of the
  Northland along with gusty winds leading to blowing snow.

- A strong lake-effect snowfall event is expected across Iron
  County Wednesday into Thursday. Snowfall totals in excess of a
  foot possible across the higher elevations.

- Temperatures plunge below normal behind this system with
  another large winter system possible for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low pressure was located over northwestern Ontario early this
morning with a warm front extending southeast across the
Minnesota Arrowhead and western Lake Superior. A cold front
trailed back into far northwestern Minnesota, North Dakota and
Montana. Another area of low pressure was analyzed over east-
central Colorado. Northward moving moisture ahead of this
Colorado low will interact with the cold front sagging south
across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin later this afternoon
and tonight, leading to rain showers mainly across northwest
Wisconsin tonight. Depending on where this front sets up, this
shower activity may end up just to our south tonight. Highs
today will reach into the 40s with a few low 50s in spots.

Attention then turns to the northern stream upper low moving out
of the Northern Rockies and into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
This will be the main weather maker for the Northland. Showers
will spread across the region Tuesday with snow mixing in
through the day as colder air starts to push in. A changeover to
all snow is then expected late Tuesday with snow continuing into
Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night. Models have been
fairly consistent with the low track across central Minnesota
just to our south, keeping the Northland in the north side of
the system. This will bring the deformation axis/TROWAL feature
through the region which may lead to heavier snow amounts. There
will be plenty of vertical motion that would likely lead to
efficient dendritic growth rates as evidenced by the strongly
negative Thaler QG omega progs. How long this strong vertical
motion lasts could be an issue in how long these heavier snow
conditions last. Snow ratios will also be a concern with snow
starting out very heavy before ratios go up and snow becomes
more powdery in nature as colder temperatures move in.

In terms of snow amounts, values have trended a bit higher with
this update. This agrees with SREF plumes across the region.
While there is still a bit a spread in the plumes, there is some
clustering noted close to the mean. Currant amounts of 3 to 6
inches are likely across most of the Northland with higher
amounts of 5 to 9 inches across the Iron Range into the
Minnesota Arrowhead. Isolated higher amounts in the tip of the
Arrowhead will be possible as well with less liquid
precipitation expected. Over in northwest Wisconsin, 3 to 6
inches are expected across our southern tier of counties with 6
to 10 inches across the northern tier. Higher amounts will be
possible across the Bayfield Peninsula back into central Douglas
County due to the development of a gravity wave.

As for Iron County, heavy lake-effect snow is expected to follow
the synoptic snowfall. This transition will occur on Wednesday
morning as winds turn northwesterly as the low translates east
of the region. The lake-effect snow will persist through
Wednesday and Wednesday night before tapering off on Thursday as
winds become more westerly. This looks to be a fairly
significant event with surface to 850mb delta-T values of 15 to
20C and little shear expected. Snowfall totals in excess of a
foot are expected along the higher elevations of the Gogebic and
Penokee ranges with higher amounts approaching 2 feet possible
in the usual heavy snow locations along Highway 77.

With all this said, the current Winter Storm Watch in place
still looks good and no changes have been made with this
forecast package. There was some consideration to expanding it
across the remainder of our northwest Wisconsin counties, but
with the highest accumulations limited to the far northern
portions of Sawyer and Price counties, opted to leave them out
with this update. However, should those higher amounts shift a
bit more to the south, the watch will likely need to be
expanded.

Aside from the lake-effect snow continuing across the South
Shore for Thanksgiving, dry conditions are expected across the
majority of the Northland. Highs Thursday will be in the 20s
with lows falling into the low teens and single digits above
zero for Thursday night/Friday morning. Looking ahead to the
weekend, confidence is high that the cold temperatures will
stick around. Models continue to advertise unsettled weather
across the central CONUS during this time period as well. While
currently most of the impacts look to remain south of the
Northland, given the busy travel weekend, close attention will
need to be paid as things could shift northward and lead to
issues on the backside of the holiday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the period. Clouds
will increase through the day and become overcast tonight ahead
of the next system. Some MVFR clouds will move into HYR late in
the period. Most of the shower activity is currently expected to
remain to the south and east of HYR. If this activity makes it
to the terminal, IFR ceilings will be possible.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots will be seen through much
of the day today before turning northwesterly in the wake of a
weak cold front late this afternoon. As low pressure begins to
approach tonight, winds will turn northeasterly and become
stronger at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots by
daybreak Tuesday. This will likely lead to conditions hazardous
to small craft. Winds then further increase through the day
Tuesday and become northwesterly with gales to 35 to 45 knots
for Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Gale Watches are in
effect for this time period. Winds will then slowly diminish
Thursday into Thursday night with a period of conditions
hazardous to small craft following the gales. Snow will lead to
reduced visibilities as well starting Tuesday night and
continuing into Wednesday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     morning for MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for MNZ011-012-019>021-037.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     evening for WIZ001-002.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night
     for LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH