093
FXUS63 KDLH 191737
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1137 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation returns today through Thursday afternoon. Rain
  is the most likely precipitation type. A light wintry mix
  cannot be ruled out in far northern Minnesota, particularly
  this morning in Koochiching, northern Itasca, and northern St.
  Louis counties.

- Areas of fog this morning, some of which will be locally dense
  in inland northwest Wisconsin.

- Drier weather moves in Friday into this weekend with high
  temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.

- An active pattern may develop in the early to middle portion
  of next week, along with a colder than normal airmass moving
  into central U.S. mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

This Morning:

Early this morning, surface high pressure is centered over the
Great Lakes to southern Ontario, with low pressure over far
southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, gradually moving ENE with
time today into Thursday. In the "warm sector" ahead of this
low, a weak feed of moisture and isentropic ascent will favor
some precipitation moving into far north-central Minnesota first here
prior to sunrise, and then gradually expanding east and south
with time this morning into most of north-central Minnesota and
portions of the Arrowhead. Precipitation type in the 5/6 AM to
10 AM timeframe in northern Itasca, Koochiching, and northern
St. Louis counties will be tricky to pin down. The reason for
this is air temperatures are generally around or just above
freezing at both the surface and in a near-isothermal layer from
the surface up to around 800-750 mb. In addition, some dry air
in the low levels of the atmosphere at onset could delay
precipitation reaching the ground and even lead to some wet-
bulbing of surface temperatures currently above freezing down to
around freezing given surface dewpoint depressions of 15F-20F.
As a result, this timeframe (5am-10am) could see a few hours of
a wintry mix of rain, very light snow, or even spotty freezing
rain (20-30% chance) depending on where surface air temperatures
settle out. This could produce up to a light glaze of spotty
ice accretion (around one hundredth of an inch or less) before
temperatures completely warm above freezing later this morning
and precipitation changes over to all rain.

Observations also show some areas of fog/dense fog in inland
northwest Wisconsin this morning. High-res models do suggest
some fog moving north into more of northwest Wisconsin west to
the Brainerd Lakes this morning, but confidence in this actually
occurring remains low as cloud cover overhead should limit
additional fog formation due to radiational cooling despite
light winds. We will continue to monitor fog development and
possible expansion as the early morning progresses. For now, we
have held off on any issuance of Dense Fog Advisories.

Today - Thursday:

Precipitation changes over to all rain starting late this morning
aside from rain mixing with very light snow in the Arrowhead at
times today. Look for high temperatures in the Northland to top
out in the mid to upper 30s in northeast Minnesota and upper
30s to low 40s elsewhere. Temperatures cool down into the low to
mid 30s again tonight, so light snow chances mix back in with
the rain in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin this evening
and tonight, while the remainder of the Northland sees light
rain. Some of this snow does linger in northern Minnesota into
Thursday morning to around midday as a cold front sweeps east
through the Northland. However, precipitation pretty quickly
comes to an end from west to east behind the cold front later
Thursday morning and afternoon as a cooler and drier airmass
works in. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the
upper 30s to around 40F in northern Minnesota to 40s along and
south of US-2.

Friday - This Weekend:

High pressure moves through the region Friday and Saturday,
keeping conditions dry with high temperatures warming from the
mid 30s to mid 40s on Friday to widespread 40s on Saturday.
There is some weak shortwave energy aloft that moves through
with another cool front Saturday night into Sunday, but a lack
of moisture availability looks to keep the Northland largely dry
with precipitation chances of less than 20%, with the main
weather impact with the late weekend front passage being some
cloud cover. Sunday`s high temperatures will be similar to
Saturday in the 40s, about 5F-10F above normal for the second to
last week of November.

Early to Mid-Next Week:

Global model ensemble guidance continues to have a fairly
medium to high confidence in the weather pattern becoming more
active starting in the early to middle portion of next week as
broader, deeper troughing aloft sets up across the northwestern
to central U.S. This includes a much colder, winter airmass
moving into the Upper Midwest by the middle of next week, with
high confidence in below average high and low temperatures
returning. Despite the higher confidence in colder temperatures
by the middle of next week, precipitation chances for early to
mid-next week remains lower due to uncertainty in the track and
progression of an Alberta Clipper on Tuesday through early
Thursday and when or if it merges with a southern stream low
pressure/Panhandle hook during that timeframe. Precipitation
potential--including snow--during or just prior to the
Thanksgiving travel period will be highly dependent on how these
low pressure systems track next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A mix of conditions across the region late this morning with most
sites at or below MVFR. Rain and drizzle, occasionally mixed with
snowflakes and freezing drizzle should continue to move across all
terminals through Thursday morning, with the worst conditions
expected overnight through sunrise Thursday. Overnight, current TAFs
are written for terminals falling to MVFR and IFR levels, but LIFR
ceilings and visibility are possible for DLH, HIB, and HYR, with
PROB30 groups attempting to time out the best chance for this. South
to southwest winds continue overnight, become northwest into
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light southwest winds this morning will increase today into
Thursday morning with gusts of 15-25 kt before turning
northwesterly Thursday PM into early Friday with gusts of 10-20
kt. The strongest of these winds will be this evening into mid-
Thursday morning from Grand Marais to Grand Portage, where a
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for winds up to 25 kt and
wave heights building to 2-5 ft. Northwest winds gradually
weaken on Friday before turning southwesterly Friday night and
picking up a bit again on Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday for LSZ140.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Rothstein