303
FXUS63 KDLH 151917
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
117 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front brings cooler and dry air giving near-critical
  fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of east-
  central MN and northwest WI.

- Brushed by a weak system on Tuesday morning with just a trace
  of snow for areas south of Douglas County.

- Late week potential system is looking less likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Skies clearing out for a sunny afternoon after a cold frontal
passage this morning. The combination of very dry air, with
humidity dropping into the upper 20s, and breezy northwest winds
gusting 20 to 25 mph will create elevated, and in some spots
near-critical, fire danger. This is especially true for areas
from Crow Wing County in Minnesota across to Sawyer County in
Wisconsin, particularly in the pine barrens. Please be extra
cautious with any activities that could start a fire.

The dry pattern continues. :( High pressure will build over the
area, giving us a quiet and dry weekend, though it will feel
much more like November. Temperatures today will be 10 to 20
degrees cooler than yesterday, and Sunday will be even chillier,
dropping another 5 to 10 degrees. The quiet weather continues into
the start of next week. We are watching a small disturbance that
will pass well to our south late Monday into Tuesday. While most
of the precipitation will miss us, there`s a small chance for
a light wintry mix to brush our far southern counties. Overall,
impacts from this system look to be minimal.

Our next chance for precipitation won`t arrive until late next
week. Forecast models are watching a storm system currently
developing out west that is expected to track east across the
country. This system has the potential to develop into a strong
storm, pulling moisture up from the Gulf as it moves into the
Midwest. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track with
deterministic guidance looking less promising followed by an
ensemble trend downward for precipitation.  Parts of our region
may see some rain or snow, but we will be keeping an eye on this
system as it develops and likely passes to our south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Deceptively VFR, watch out for some LLWS mainly around the
North Shore to KDLH as an invisible gravity wave is causing some
extra wind shear and vertical motion in this vicinity. Already
saw a PIREP indicating that the models and in-situ obs agree
that the feature is there. Not confident that it`ll hit LLWS for
TAFs, but likely will be present along the North Shore. Aside
from that, flight categories will improve as a cold front exits
the area today as drier air moves in, leading to clear skies.
Breezy northwest winds gusting over 20 knots are expected at all
TAF sites this afternoon and to some degree through the entire
TAF period though there may be an overnight easing tonight. VFR
conditions through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 115 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of western Lake
Superior. Northwest winds will increase this evening behind a
cold front, reaching 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots
for some prompting a Gale Warning for the North Shore tonight
where katabatic flow will enhance wind gusts. These strong winds
will build waves to 3 to 6 feet, especially near the Bayfield
Peninsula and the Outer Apostle Islands by this evening. Winds
remain breezy from the northwest on Sunday before diminishing
late in the day. Conditions will become much calmer on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for LSZ121-147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-
     141.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Sunday for
     LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ142>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe