Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
733
FNUS73 KDLH 070822
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for 2024 MN Wildfire Academy...MNICS IMT3
National Weather Service Duluth MN
322 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 CDT on June 07.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny today as high pressure moves across the Upper
Midwest. Some diurnal cumulus will develop in the afternoon but
no rain is expected. Ventilation this morning will initially be
poor but quickly improve to excellent as we warm through the later
morning hours. With the abundance of sunshine expected for today
there is a chance we overachieve on our Min RH forecast. We are
currently forecasting Min RHs in the lower 30s but some of the
high res guidance is dropping it into the mid 20s. Additionally,
we will still have some breezy northwest winds today with gusts in
the mid 20s. The most likely time for these higher winds will be
between noon and 3PM.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 21 mph increasing to 21 to 28
mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (7500-18100 knot-ft) increasing to
good (32300 knot-ft) late in the morning, then
increasing to good (58100 knot-ft) late in the
morning increasing to excellent (113200
knot-ft) late in the morning increasing to
excellent (142200-168400 knot-ft) decreasing to
excellent (119000 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............47 51 56 60 62 64 68 70 70 70 69
RH..............83 77 69 60 52 45 40 35 33 32 33
20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..6 7 9 10 11 12 13 13 12 11 10
20 FT wind gust.14 15 18 19 20 22 22 21 20 18 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.4 2.2 3.2 5.1 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.1 6.6
Transp wind dir.W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W
Transp wind spd.13 15 17 21 25 28 26 24 23 23 21
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/10008 18 32 58 113 166 168 154 150 142 119
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers late in the evening. Chance of
rain showers late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL decreasing to 2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph decreasing to 8 to 12
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (90600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(3500-10400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.14 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 40 50 50
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............69 63 57 54 51 49
RH..............35 48 57 66 77 83
20 ft wind......NW 8 NW 6 NW 5 NW 5 NW 5 W 3
20 ft wind gust.15 13 11 12 12 7
Mix hgt (ft)....5300 900 500 700 800 500
Transport wind..W 20 NW 14 NW 10 N 10 NW 12 NW 8
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100091 10 5 7 8 4
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
showers through the day. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 19 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 22
mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3700-17800 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (95400-127200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 10 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............48 56 65 70
RH..............89 77 56 44
20 FT wind......W 3G7 W 6G12 NW 9G16 NW 10G19
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1600 4900 6500
Transport wind..NW 8 NW 13 NW 17 NW 22
Haines index....4 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/10004 18 73 121
$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Jolene P Soltis
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415608.1/DLH
.DELDT 06/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jolene.soltis@state.mn.us,Christopher.bergquist@state.mn.us, woodrow.unruh@noaa.gov, afsrock@stcloudstate.edu, wesley.belanger@state.mn.us, brad.hopkins@noaa.gov, josh.donatell@state.mn.us, lori.karau@usda.gov, milocke@paulbunyan.net