002
FXUS63 KDMX 071800
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder and breezy today. Highs in the single digits north to
  20s south.

- Much warmer on Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s to low
  40s. Cold front overnight will bring chance for snow with
  strong winds.

- Additional snow chances later this week and colder Friday into
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

At 2 am the surface low is centered over northern Missouri while
high pressure across Minnesota is sinking south into the area.
Accumulating precipitation has largely tapered off early this
morning, though light flurries and patchy freezing drizzle lingers
over central into eastern Iowa early this morning. While snow
reports are sparse in the wee morning hours, it appears that
the heaviest band of snow last night fell across north-central
Iowa in the highway 20 to 30 corridor with totals in the 6-8"
range from Fort Dodge to Ames and Marshalltown. As precipitation
tapers off winds have increased, thanks to the enhanced
pressure gradient across the area and cold air advection into
the area with subsidence as high pressure sinks south. Gusts of
20-25 mph are expected through the morning, diminishing this
afternoon as high pressure settles over the area. The fresh
snowfall will be easily blowable and some minor drifting is
expected, however more notable drifting or visibility
reductions from blowing snow is not expected this morning. It
will be colder today with cold air advection into the area.
Afternoon highs will be in the single digits north to low 20s
south.

The upcoming week looks to remain active with several perturbations
in the northwest flow pattern passing across the area. The first
arrives already tonight as a weak shortwave drops across Minnesota
and northern Iowa overnight tonight into Monday morning.
Forcing and better moisture are focused north of the area,
though a light dusting of snow is possible across northern Iowa.

A pair of more robust shortwaves pass across Minnesota on Monday
night and Tuesday, one after the other. The first sensible impact to
Iowa will be the warm air advection pushing temperatures on Tuesday
into the upper 30s to low 40s. Moisture and better forcing are
again focused across Minnesota, though light and and snow are
possible across northern to eastern Iowa Tuesday and Tuesday
night. As the low shifts east cold air surges south into the
state and northwest winds increase. Model soundings indicate
30-40+ kts through the boundary layer overnight into Wednesday
morning. Soundings also contain some instability along with low
level saturation through a shallow dendritic growth zone. This
is a list of the ingredients needed for snow squalls, as
highlighted in the previous discussion, and will be watching
closely the next few data cycles.

Another system may move across the area late this week around
Thursday, however GFS and Euro solutions begin to diverge and there
is less confidence in the details and local impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Sfc high pressure will result in VFR conditions this afternoon
into the early evening. Another weak system will lead to
increasing clouds later this evening with light snow developing
across northern terminals including FOD/MCW/ALO after 03z.
Expect CIGs and VSBYs to fall into the MVFR category at said
sites, with IFR conditions possible. Its uncertain attm if
snowfall, or the lower CIGs or VSBYs will impact DSM or OTM, and
adjustment maybe needed in future updates. North winds this
afternoon will gradually swing around to the southeast
overnight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Fowle