743
FXUS63 KDMX 111733
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1133 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few flurries possible mainly north of I-80 corridor.

- Dry and quiet Tuesday through Saturday, with steadily warming
  temperatures reaching the 60s by late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Surface high pressure was situated west of the Iowa border
between NE and KS keeping skies relatively clear across much of
the state early this afternoon aside from some upper-level cirrus
that is gradually moving eastward. Upper-level ridging
continues to build in across the Dakotas with its eastern
periphery located over the central CONUS today. This feature
along with an approaching mid-level wave will help increase a
35-40kt LLJ aloft. Beginning this evening, cloud cover is
expected to fill in for much of central Iowa as this wave
approaches. Surface winds look to remain decoupled from the LLJ
aloft according to latest RAP soundings and NBM. Therefore most
sites could expect a slight uptick in wind speeds late this
evening into early Tuesday morning around 10-15mph with gusts
nearing 25mph. Additionally, a DGZ remains well saturated above
a notably dry surface layer. It is likely that snow development
will occur above the surface given the meager amount of forcing
through the column however the 10kft surface dry layer will
limit the amount of flakes reaching the ground. Thus, maintained
only a slight chance of flurries north of the I-80 corridor.

Surface high pressure will fix itself over the central plains
beneath broad elongated ridging for much of the remainder of
the work week. Temperatures will quickly return back into the
lower 50s on Tuesday and continuing into the 60s through the
rest of the week. Its even possible for a few lower 70s across
southern Iowa come Saturday. Precip chances practically go
dormant until our next system approaches from the west later
this weekend. As of now, chances for frozen p-types look to be
null. Of course, it never hurts to keep an eye on the forecast
through the week for any changing trends.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail thorugh the TAF period. Breezy west
winds will gust 20-25 kts through the afternoon, diminishing
under 20kts after sunset. Winds aloft will remain stronger above
the nighttime inversion, however as high pressure moves towards
the area overnight the winds aloft should be less than what was
seen this morning and generally under 40kts below FL020.
Therefore have not included mention in TAFs at this time but
will monitor for future updates.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Hagenhoff