473
FXUS63 KDMX 061913
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
213 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower will persist into the evening and gradually end from
  northwest to southeast. Isolated non-severe storms possible
  south.

- Dry with seasonal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A cold front has been very slow to move across the state the past 24
hrs as the boundary has become nearly parallel to upper
west/southwest flow. The surface boundary has no reached far
southeast Iowa. The boundary at 850 mb though is lagging and remains
on the northwest half of Iowa side to begin the afternoon. Numerous
waves of theta-e advection continue to lift in vicinity of that
boundary. As a result, periodic showers along with some isolated
thunderstorms have been moving across a large portion of central
Iowa. All of these features will begin to accelerate to the
southeast later today and tonight as a 500 mb short wave trough
approaches from the west/northwest and moves through overnight.

High pressure will arrive on Tuesday and bring clearing skies along
with warmer than today temperatures, but still near to slightly
below normal temperatures with high temperatures generally in the
60s. The high pressure ridge will move slowly east the next several
days with return flow arriving on the backside of the system,
especially towards the end of the week. Expect high temperatures to
be similar with highs in the 60s and low 70s through Thursday.
Overnight lows may dip into the upper 30s Tuesday through Thursday
mornings over parts of northern Iowa where better radiational
conditions develop. A short wave moves through Thursday night and
could bring a few showers or isolated thunderstorms. Another high
pressure system follows this system with even stronger warm
advection for next weekend and perhaps a few areas with have highs
in the 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A broad area of showers is moving across Iowa this afternoon. In
addition, MVFR to IFR stratus is situated along and southeast of
a KDSM-KALO line and just moving into KOTM to start the period.
The showers and clouds will be gradually moving southeast
this afternoon and evening with conditions improving from the
northwest. Clearing will begin to occur by Tuesday morning. The
wind will remain light out of the north at 10 kts or less.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon