906
FXUS63 KDMX 132054
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
254 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential of patchy dense fog tonight.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through at least
Saturday.

-Next system arrives early next week bringing rain and potentially
some snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The forecast continues to remain seasonably warm and quiet today as
temperatures have risen to the lower 60s across much of the state
this afternoon. Current temp observations look to be outperforming
the raw NBM thus had to mix in NBM 75th and 90th percentiles in
order to reflect this warmer trend. Meanwhile aloft, Iowa continues
to remain under the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge which
is moving at practically a snail`s pace eastward. Embedded within
this ridge at the h700 level, a region of lower pressure will
progress across the state of Iowa later this evening. The passage of
this mid-level wave will help influence some southerly moisture to
creep up into the central plains overnight. This added moisture
could potentially develop a few areas of patchy fog overnight into
the pre-dawn hours of Friday. Wind speeds this afternoon are
expected to decrease after sunset. Lows tonight should reach down
into the upper 30s mainly north of the I-80 corridor and mid-40s
across southern Iowa.

Tomorrow will be a similar forecast to today. Highs will reach the
upper 60s for most areas and perhaps a run at 70 across southern
Iowa again but given the performance of the NBM today, blending in
higher percentiles could be needed for tomorrow afternoon`s highs.
One caveat will be if the presence of morning cloud cover will
inhibit the warmest temperatures solutions from being met. Winds
will remain out of the south around 10 mph with gusts below 20mph.
As we head into the weekend, a weak cold front approaches from the
northwest. Conditions are expected to remain dry although winds
could be breezy between 20-25mph Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Saturday and then cooling
into the 50s Sunday.

Our eyes remains focused on the system early next week. Low pressure
off the California coastline will track across the PacSouthwest late
this weekend then enter the central CONUS by Monday as a 995mb
surface low. Current forecast tracks remain in fair agreement about
its center tracking somewhere across northern MO into southern IA by
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Latest NBM QPF looks to keep
amounts on the lower end however, there is still time to solidify p-
types. A few ensemble members do hint at the potential of some light
snowfall accumulations. Temperatures for the remainder of the period
will range in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with
the exception being early Friday when fog may develop across
parts of the area. The highest probability of thicker fog is in
southwestern Iowa, but it may extend toward central Iowa around
sunrise Friday. Have introduced prevailing 3SM BR at FOD, DSM,
and OTM from 12Z-15Z to account for this potential, but
confidence and details will be refined in subsequent TAF
updates.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Lee