223
FXUS63 KDMX 060406
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1106 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions resulting in elevated fire
  weather concerns will taper off this afternoon.

- Spotty showers this afternoon in northwest Iowa, moving
  across the area and becoming more widespread on Monday. Rain
  will taper off southeast by Tuesday morning.

- Cooler highs in the 60s and 70s this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Winds remain breezy out of the southwest today ahead of the cool
front that has reached northwest Iowa early this afternoon. Wind
have generally gusted 25-35 mph so far today with a few isolated
gusts near 40 mph. At the same time the surface boundary has reached
northwest Iowa with spotty reflectivity returns on radar. Much of
this is not reaching the ground with significant dry air to battle
initially. Cloud cover has helped keep afternoon temperatures a
few degrees cooler than Saturday and winds are marginally
reduced as well, helping to reduce potential cropland fire
concerns. Even so, caution should be used with fires or anything
that may produce sparks the rest of today. As upper level
support arrives later this afternoon and evening expect to
increasing saturation thorugh the column and more widespread
precipitation along the front. Instability is limited with <500
J/kg MLCAPE and best 0-6km shear lag behind the instability
axis. This will help to limit severe potential, however with dry
profiles initially any early convection may produce gusty
winds.

The front slowly sinks southeast overnight and through the day on
Monday. CAMs today have come into much better agreement today with
the timing and placement of precipitation passing across Iowa,
becoming more widespread on Monday before exiting southeast on
Tuesday morning. Northwest Iowa will miss out on much of the QPF as
the boundary passes before saturating, but much of central to
east/southeast Iowa will see 1+ inches of rain with a band of 2-3+
inches likely from southwest to central Iowa. This rain is falling
across areas (most of Iowa) that have not seen much in the way of
precipitation for several weeks, so despite amounts of 2-3+"
possible this will fall over a prolonged period over very dry soils
with very little chance for any hydrologic concerns.

High pressure build across the area on Tuesday, pushing the boundary
southeast of the area. Temperatures come down 20+ degrees the the
frontal passage with highs in the 60s to start the week, warming
back through the 70s by late week. A couple shortwave may move
across the area mid to late week, however model continue to struggle
with timing so confidence is lower at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Thunderstorm activity continues to trend down and will largely
diminish after 2 hours (returning Monday afternoon). MVFR and
IFR cigs anticipated with the persistent rain in the planning
period. Confidence was high enough to put IFR cigs in KDSM and
KOTM. Added in Prob30 thunder groups to reflect when
thunderstorms may once again be possible, mainly affecting
southern terminals. Northwest winds can be found behind the
rain, southerly winds ahead.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Jimenez