862
FXUS63 KDMX 101736
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1136 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds this early this morning diminish through midday
  and the afternoon. Gusts of 50-60+ mph possible. High Wind
  Warning and Wind Advisory are in effect through mid morning.

- Pockets of blowing snow and narrow snow bands possible through
  the morning, mainly across northern Iowa. Some additional
  light snow is also possible later this afternoon with wrap
  around snow.

- Light snow and some light ice accumulation possible with a
  system on Thursday.

- Very cold with additional light snow possible this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Strong northwest winds are passing across Iowa early this
morning with wide spread gusts of 45-55 mph in central and
western Iowa so far this morning. Winds in eastern Iowa have
gusted 35-40 mph so far today with strongest winds not yet
reaching the east. In far western Iowa a few gusts over 60 mph
have been recorded as the surge of cold air advection digs into
the state. Expect that these stronger 60 mph gusts will expand
into northern and central Iowa over the next few hours. So far
this morning the snow crust has held and visibility reductions
from blowing snow has not yet been a problem. Expect this to
continue for the most part through the rest of the morning,
however the potential for breaking the crust in northern Iowa
still exists, especially as the stronger winds arrive.

The other potential hazard to monitor through the morning is
convectively driven snow showers in this push of cold air advection.
Soundings continue to indicate weak instability, though the
parameter space is not as notable as in previous forecast cycles.
There still remains modest instability with saturation into the DGZ,
but on the whole the environment is less supportive for squalls this
morning. At this writing at 2:30am there is a weak band through
Humboldt, Wright, and Hardin counties that has been moving steadily
across the state, but so far it has remained light with no noted
impacts.

Winds will taper off through late morning and the afternoon as the
surface low continues to lift to the east. There is a low end chance
for light snow across northern Iowa this afternoon with wrap-around
moisture as the low exits, but this should be of low impact with a
dusting or less expected.

Our attention now turns to Thursday when the next shortwave is
expected to drop across Iowa in this active northwest flow pattern.
As the low drops southeast the deformation zone slides across Iowa
from northwest to southeast. The southwest half of Iowa will largely
remain dry with the northeast half seeing light snow accumulations.
A narrow band of 2-3" is possible with lesser amounts on either
side. On the southwest side of the snow line, warm air aloft will
result in a wintry mix. Soundings show a warm nose of varying depth
and magnitude depending on the model. The GFS/Euro lean towards a
rain/snow mix for Iowa while soundings from the HRRR/RAP and HREF
data shows a more notable warm nose with colder surface temperatures
resulting in light ice accumulations. This could have an impact on
the Thursday afternoon commute and will need to watch closely.

The forecast remains active into the weekend as much colder air
pushes into the state along with another chance for light snow
on Saturday. Highs this weekend are forecast in the single
digits to teens with morning low wind chills in -20s (nearing
-30 for northern Iowa Sunday morning).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Gusty winds have diminished from their maximum overnight and
this morning and will continue to do so into tonight. Widespread
MVFR ceilings will persist over the state into this evening
improving into VFR from west to east after midnight tonight.
This end time of the MVFR ceilings is medium as there are borderline
MVFR conditions possibly lingering at all terminals until after
12z, but have opted to show SCT MVFR/prevailing BKN VFR.
Whatever improvements do occur will be short-lived as
precipitation will begin to spread into the state toward the
end of this valid period with winds becoming from a southerly
direction.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Ansorge