750
FXUS63 KDTX 132043
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
343 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warm up through Saturday with highs climbing well above
  normal.

- Cold front Saturday brings rain chances late in the day and a sharp
  drop in temperatures Saturday night.

- Breezy conditions of 30 to 40 mph possible both Saturday and
  Sunday.

- Near normal temperatures expected through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Southeast Michigan is reaping the benefits of a very dry airmass
today, characterized by PWAT of 0.21" sampled via the 12z KDTX RAOB.
Plenty of sunshine has maximized diurnal heating, with highs peaking
in the low to mid 50s for most. Upstream cloud band stretching from
northern IL to eastern MN will filter overhead tonight, marking the
lead edge of 850-700mb theta-e advection that signifies a pattern
shift Friday-Saturday. Intervals of cloud cover persist through
Friday as moisture transport ramps up overhead, but disruptions to
insolation should be offset by ongoing warm advection throughout the
day. Highs in the mid to upper 50s are expected.

By Saturday morning, 850mb temperatures climb toward 10 C (compared
to today`s RAOB which sampled -3 C). 12z MOS guidance is now
starting to fall more in line with the ensemble member forecast for
Saturday, generally forecasting highs in the low to mid 60s. That
said, degree of cloud cover will be impactful to the temperature
forecast as will any precipitation that is able to develop. The
broader synoptic precipitation shield has trended north and east of
the CWA, where there is better overlap between southern stream
moisture transport and height falls/upper level jet dynamics. That
said, precipitation chances are still in the forecast and will be
focused along and immediately ahead of a strong cold front late
Saturday afternoon-evening. While synoptic moisture is not all that
impressive, multiple saturated layers exist within the column which
is likely to be engaged by the strong frontal forcing. Model QPF
generally falls below a tenth of an inch with this system. As noted
in the previous discussion, mid level lapse rates close to 7.0 C/km
may even produce a rumble of thunder.

The broader impacts come from a 40-45 knot low level jet that
glances across the Ohio Valley just ahead of the front. Breezy
southwest flow (30 to 40 mph) will be possible Saturday afternoon-
evening, with strongest gusts toward the Ohio border closest to the
jet core. Gusts will largely rely on mechanical mixing invof the
frontal passage given the stable nature of the warm sector.

A sharp drop in temperatures is expected post-front as temperatures
settle into the mid-30s by daybreak Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings depict a much drier column for most of the area, albeit
much colder as highs are capped in the 40s. Across the CWA this
equates to a more deeply mixed boundary layer, that again takes
advantage of enhanced flow around the parent low. Breezy northwest
flow of 30-35 mph is expected Sunday, especially across the Thumb.
Lake Michigan moisture flux will have potential to clip the Thumb
region as well as flow stays consistently out of the northwest. Low
freezing levels (less than 2.0 kft agl) would favor snow as the
dominant p-type outside of the peak heating hours where rain will
likely mix in. Conditions could get squally should lake effect snow
showers materialize given the background wind gust potential.

Near normal temperatures persist through the first half of next
week, in the low to mid 40s. Will need to keep an eye on a Pacific
wave set to impact the Ohio Valley middle of next week. Majority of
the operational models keep the 925-700mb frontal zone well south of
the state, but there are a handful of ensemble members that bring
the precipitation shield further north. Those scenarios tend to be
warmer than what the gridded NBM forecast is advertising right now.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds continue to weaken through the evening as high pressure
centered over the northern Great Lakes becomes fully established.
Influence of said high persists through Friday before departing east
late Friday night ahead of the next broad low lifting over northern
Ontario towards the Hudson Bay. This system`s cold front swings over
the Great Lakes daytime Saturday with model guidance suggesting an
area of secondary low pressure developing along this boundary
somewhere from northern Lake Huron to Sudbury before diving towards
southeast Ontario. Winds organize out of the south-southeast
initially early Saturday morning before steadily rotating toward the
southwest through the first half of the day. Significantly milder
air is drawn into the central Great Lakes during this timeframe
reducing overlake thermal instability towards more neutral/slightly
stable conditions. As a result, peak gusts currently expected to
hold aob 25kts.

Cold frontal passage occurs late afternoon-evening Saturday
shifting winds to the northwest as colder air rapidly drives south
out of northern Canada as the upper trough settles across the Great
Lakes. Initial chances (~50%) for NW gales arrive by late Saturday
evening/overnight though these carry some dependence on the strength
of the aforementioned secondary low over southern Ontario. Core of
the airmass arrives overhead by Sunday likely resulting in a few
knot uptick in NW gusts and currently carries the highest
probabilities to exceed 34kts (~70-80%).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

AVIATION...

Area of dry and stable air occupies the local airspace today and
tonight as high pressure influence commands VFR conditions. GOES
imagery reveals some streaks of high cirrus aloft to the southwest,
and model data indicates marginally sufficient upper level moisture
could lift into the region late afternoon and early evening, leading
to the possibility of ceilings above 20 kft AGL. Main forecast
concern through the rest of the daylight hours will be the strength
of westerly winds. Gusts should peak in the 20-25 knot range as low-
level winds level-off and nocturnal stability cuts the mixing
connection shortly after sundown. Mid level moisture then fills in
overnight resulting in broad coverage of ceilings near 10 kft AGL
over the TAF sites. This cloud is expected to linger through Friday
morning before giving way to a SCT-BKN cumulus field Friday
afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....KGK


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