404
FXUS63 KDTX 052016
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
316 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills tonight fall into the lower teens to upper single
digits. Sub zero wind chills possible again Sunday night.

- Below normal temperatures persist this weekend and into next week.

- Chance for light snow late tonight into Saturday morning. Some
light freezing drizzle possible mainly south of I-69 Saturday
morning. Little to no snow/ice accumulations.

- Another chance of light snow daytime Sunday. Most areas forecast
to see 1-1.5" of new snow accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Only a modest temperature recovery today after the record setting
cold start to the morning (for most of SE MI) with highs topping out
in the mid 20s, some 15 degrees below normal. Increasing cloud cover
this afternoon marks the arrival of the prefrontal trough and weak
lead moisture transport into southern MI. This only results in
partial column saturation however as the lowest levels remain
unsaturated due to the resident dry near-surface arctic airmass
precluding any precip chances through the daylight hours. Frontal
boundary is then set to slowly advance across lower MI late tonight
into Saturday morning. Forcing is weak though forecast soundings
suggest its sufficient to support slightly deeper column saturation,
though still either only grazing or just shy of the DGZ. Result is
the chance for scattered light snow showers focused mostly north of
M-59 through mid Saturday morning where moisture depths are
greatest. For the southern areas, lesser moisture lends to higher
probabilities for insufficient nuclei and favoring light patchy
freezing drizzle instead of snow p-type. Accumulations of either
snow or freezing drizzle will be very light at only a dusting or
trace, respectively.

Next chances for snow arrive Sunday morning as a compact southern
stream shortwave ejecting from the central Rockies quickly slides
into the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Lead edge of isentropic
ascent overspreads the CWA between 6-11am with the peak rates
arriving 1-3hrs afterwards. A northern stream trough digging over
the northern Great Lakes looks to cause an orphaning of the original
surface circulation over the Ohio Valley with a reorganization in a
new circulation over the eastern Great Lakes by late Sunday
afternoon. Locally this favors rapidly diminishing of synoptic
snowfall over the course of the afternoon with a total end by 5-6pm.
Accumulations are held in check by the speed of the system with most
areas seeing around 1-1.5" of new snow though a few locales could
pick up near 2". Low level winds set up out of the northwest to
north-northwest post-fropa Sunday night offering the shot at some
scattered lake effect snow showers primarily in the eastern Thumb,
though this is highly dependent on getting NNW over more NW. Should
NNW winds manifest, areas in the Thumb will be able to see snow
showers for a good chunk of Sunday night offering an additional 0.5-
1" of accumulation potential.

Arctic high pressure briefly follows for Monday before a series of
clippers drop across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
through most of next week. SE MI still looks to reside under the
baroclinic zone favoring tracks near or directly over the region.
This also offers a more complicated p-type forecast as the freezing
line likely hangs over the CWA.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to strong southwest flow ahead of a cold front through
tonight. The airmass remains cold and unstable near the lake
surface, thus gusts around 30 knots are expected to persist, with
even a few isolated/short lived gusts to gales over central sections
of Lake Huron. The cold front, which likely produces some light snow
showers, looks to wash out tomorrow as it moves through. This should
lead to light winds Saturday night, 15 knots or less. Yet another
cold front and surge of cold air to move in during Sunday, as 850 MB
temps lower in the negative mid teens. Northwest winds gusting
between 25-30 knots appear likely late in the day.  However, winds
then look to veer to the north-northeast fairly quickly and weaken
Sunday night as high pressure quickly builds in for Monday morning.
None-the-less, large waves of 6+ feet will build over the southern
Lake Huron. Some of these larger waves look to clip the nearshore
waters of Lake Huron as winds veer around, and expect another round
of small craft advisories to be issued.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

AVIATION...

Ceilings in the 4-5kft range are encroaching on southeast Michigan
this afternoon with expectation for similar ceilings to reach the
southern metro terminals later this afternoon and tonight.
Conditions should remain VFR through the remainder today with trends
towards MVFR arriving tonight ahead of a cold front. Scattered gusts
towards 20 knots will remain possible this afternoon with a
sustained wind of around 10 knots holding through tonight. A few
flurries and possibly some mixed wintry precipitation will be
possible mainly across FNT and MBS tonight and tomorrow morning.
Precipitation expected to be very light and will maintain TEMPO
groups for snow showers around the more likely time to see this
precipitation. Winds veer more westerly to around 10 knots towards
the early afternoon tomorrow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. High
  tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....AA


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