737
FXUS63 KDTX 111007
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
507 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow/rain chances this today and tonight. Little to no snow
  accumulation expected.

- Temperatures warm Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Backed flow is in the process of releasing lake moisture inland,
which will result in an OVC stratus deck filling in across the
terminals this morning. Some periodic mvfr cigs embedded within the
stratus deck will be possible through the morning hours, however,
latest in situ observations have mainly displayed low-end vfr with
cigs ranging between 3.5-4.5 kft. The cooler airmass will continue
to promote efficient mixing, producing gusts of 20 to 25 knots
throughout the day. Peak gust potential may come after sunset as a
strong low level jet briefly moves in across SE MI. Modeled
soundings show a neutral profile, suggesting that sporadic mixing
could still take place through tonight, with isolated peak gust
potential around 30 knots. Passage of a cold front overnight will
then quickly lower ceiling heights to mvfr with winds veering back
to the west.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning and again overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

DISCUSSION...

Troughing extends across the eastern CONUS today with a low
amplitude ridge expected to pass over Michigan early today. Low
level flow has turned more west to northwest early this morning,
which has pushed the more organized intense lake effect snow across
the northern Thumb offshore. Another cold start to the day as
temperatures are down into the 20s with wind chills in the teens.

Right on the heels of this ridge will be a low amplitude trough with
a 40+ knot low level jet nosing into southeast Michigan early this
afternoon. Strong southwest flow will drive warm advection and bring
isentropic ascent over southeast Michigan. Soundings pointing
towards a fair amount of dry air in the low levels. Near the onset
of precipitation, there looks to be enough saturation within the DGZ
for light snow. As the afternoon progresses, dry air starts to strip
moisture below -10C and we start to lose cloud ice. This would lead
to a transition to or a mixing in of light rain/drizzle. By the time
this transition occurs, surface air temperatures are expected to be
up at least into the mid 30s. The strong low level wind environment
will bring potential for some gusty conditions today. Though, the
warm southwest flow may keep mixing depths from increasing too much.
Expecting southwest gusts mostly in the 20 to 25 mph range with a
few gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Another shortwave will move into the central Great Lakes tonight.
Additional left exit region upper level jet support will maintain
low PoPs into tonight. Cloud ice appears lacking based on forecast
soundings for some spots, so isolated to scattered areas of light
rain/drizzle mixed with flurries will be possible. Overnight lows
drop to around freezing, presenting at least a low chance to see
pockets freezing drizzle. Very low confidence at this time in
occurrence, but the more the likely area would be along the Irish
Hills.

Back end of the trough with embedded shortwaves will keep low PoPs in
the forecast for Wednesday. Moisture depth continues to lack, but
light precipitation in the form of rain will be possible as warm
advection lifts temperatures up into the low-mid 40s. Heights begin
to rise Wednesday evening into Thursday, which will bring an end to
precipitation chances. Influence of a surface high pressure will
keep weather dry through the end of the work week as temperatures
warm each day and reach the low 50s for much of interior southeast
Michigan for Friday. Temperatures at 850mb are forecast to climb to
10C and above, which will allow daytime highs to make a run towards
60 degrees, especially for southern portions of the CWA on Sunday.
Troughing also starts to make a return this weekend. This brings the
next chances for rain with the highest chance currently focused
Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE...

Surface ridging briefly builds into the Great Lakes through the
morning, but will quickly be dislodged east by inbound surface
troughing anchored to Ontario low pressure. As this occurs,
southwest flow ramps up into the evening as a strong SW low level
jet (50-55 knots) surges across the Ohio Valley. With Lake Huron on
the northern fringe of the jet and short fetch over western Lake
Erie, it will be tough to get frequent enough gusts to gales to
warrant Gale headlines. Still, could see some isolated gusts in
excess of 35+ knots especially over Saginaw Bay and western Lake
Erie. Breezy southwest winds will be accompanied by a light rain-
snow mix as the trough moves overhead Tuesday night-Wednesday
morning. A second window of gale potential exists Wednesday evening
over northern Lake Huron on the backside of the trough as winds
shift W/NW. The wind field itself is not very impressive (35-40
knots), and will struggle to produce gale force gusts even in the
most well-mixed conditions. Conditions are too marginal to warrant a
watch at this time. Nearshore zones, however, will see an extended
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions as several episodes of
elevated wind/wave action are expected through Thursday. Quieter
conditions then prevail to start the weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday for
     LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     LEZ444.

     Low Water Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV


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