543
FXUS63 KDTX 191734
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1234 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with highs mainly in the 40s are forecast today and
Thursday.

- A low chance for rain or drizzle Thursday night along and behind a
cold front.

- High pressure will move into the region for the beginning of the
weekend with highs in the low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure centered right over the Great Lakes has maintained
mostly clear skies, with high-based cirrus now streaming in from the
west. Wind direction will veer southeasterly and eventually
southerly as high pressure departs the region. This will allow the
stagnant pool of low-level moisture to slowly expand back into
Michigan from south to north through the overnight hours. The MVFR
cigs seen along and south of the Michigan border will fill in across
all terminals as a result, and will hold for through the remainder
of the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in cigs aob 5kft by tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

DISCUSSION...

Fairly quiet forecast for the week as a split flow pattern keeps the
strongest northern stream flow up across Canada while the weaker
southern stream is steered by a cutoff upper low over the SW conus
and held mainly south of the region. The upper low will eject a few
weak shortwaves across the central/southern conus through the
weekend the low itself gets forced east by a strong northern stream
trough coming ashore the Pacific NW early in the new week. This
would result in a mid week system for the Great Lakes.

First things first, high pressure at the surface is building in
behind the exiting system from Tuesday while a flattening shortwave
ridge axis passes over the region. Sounding offer strong signals for
deep layer subsidence and a strong low level inversion. This leads
to some cloud concerns as mid level clouds are scouring and the bulk
of the moisture gets shunted southward through the day. At the same
time, winds out of the N/NE will attempt to pump some moisture off
Lake Huron under the inversion which would bring some low stratus
into the Thumb and potentially points southward. Clouds are already
showing up over central Lake Huron and into Huron County so will be
something to keep an eye on. Lack of overall moisture and mixing
layer depth (up to 3kft) will offer little in the way of any precip.
Thermal field improves only slightly today with 850mb temps rising
from around -1C Tues up to 2C today. With low mixed layer depths,
but more sun than Tues, expect temps to rebound a few degrees back
to the low to mid 40s.

Attention turns toward the stronger mid level wave and surface low
passing from Central Canada through northern Ontario mid to late
week. This system will send a cold front down through the region on
Thurs-Thurs night bringing the next chance of rain. Models continue
to trend drier with the frontal passage as a southern stream wave
passing through the Ohio Valley looks to block the moisture feed
northward ahead of the front. We look to reside in no mans land in
between the two systems with only the front and weak theta e
increase to work with under confluent mid level flow. Soundings show
weak moisture returns in the mid levels with the bulk of the
moisture still residing below 6kft, consistent with earlier runs. So
will continue the slight chance to low chance pops mention for light
rain, mainly Thursday night.

Warmer than normal conditions (highs in the low 50s) then hold
through the remainder of the forecast with 850mb temps hovering in
the mid single digits still under the split flow longwave pattern.
NBM offers a chance of precip across the Ohio Border Friday as a
system passes to the south with the cold front sagging just south of
the state line. This is probably a bit aggressive with the bulk of
model solutions showing the moisture and precip holding well south
of the border so look for drying trend in upcoming forecasts.

MARINE...

Increasing influence of high pressure overnight has led to a general
anticyclonic nature to the wind field, characterized by NW winds
over Lake Huron and NE winds over Lake Erie. The high drifts
overhead throughout the day, maintaining dry conditions and light
winds. The high departs into Ontario by this evening, with winds
shifting to the south as a result. Winds organize out of the
southwest by Thursday and strengthen to 15-20 knots in advance of a
cold front set to track across the Great Lakes Thursday night into
Friday. Rain chances blanket the marine zones during this timeframe,
but otherwise winds and waves look to remain below headline
thresholds into the weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......MV


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