868
FXUS63 KDTX 041045
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
545 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable today.

- Warmer early Wednesday before a cold front pushes across the area
during the afternoon. Strong west winds are expected to develop
after the noon hour Wednesday with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts possible.

- Potential exists for an active weather pattern this weekend with
multiple opportunities for precipitation and a stark cooling trend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today as cloud cover is confined to mid/high cloud
streaming in from the upper Midwest. With SE MI residing on the
northern periphery of high pressure over the Ohio valley, mixing in
the afternoon likely allows for breezy west-southwest winds with
peak gusts reaching between 15-20kts. Winds shift to the south late
evening in response to the next low reaching the far western Great
Lakes.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms today through this TAF
period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

DISCUSSION...

Medium range guidance continues to suggest high index flow across
central North America and the Great Lakes during the next 5 days.
High periodicity of shortwaves is anticipated with shorter duration
weather events. By the beginning of next week models are advertising
a highly amplified weather pattern.

Very broad upper level and surface based ridging has expanded across
the central Great Lakes this morning. Well organized upper level
confluence in place will lead to active, synoptic scale subsidence
today in the 6.0 to 15.0 kft agl layer. While modeled downward
vertical motion is not as explicit in the 3.0 to 8.0 kft agl layer,
it is difficult to ignore the signal for both drying and warming in
that layer. Pleasant early November weather today with temperatures
some 5 degrees above normal in the upper 50s. Just a modest west
wind.

Fast moving upper level jet streak is expected to result in a fast
moving low pressure/Clipper system for Wednesday. Model trends have
shifted slightly southward with the surface low center out over
portions of Lake Huron. Latest indications suggest more of the
height fall bullseye directly impacting Southeast Michigan. While do
not feel height falls will lead to a big increase in precipitation
chances (No frontal structures to speak of), it will likely lead to
abrupt height rises which could lead to a better potential for wind
gusts Wednesday afternoon. Still a bit of projecting on what the
wind forecast could become as the models (NAM) remains suspiciously
moist in the low boundary layer. Have a difficult time believing the
LCL heights will be that low. With that said, guidance remains
extremely bearish on this setup with the NBM at less than a 15%
chance for wind gusts to reach and exceed 35 mph in Metro Detroit.
50th percentile of NBM 10m Gust QMD for all of Southeast Michigan is
less than 30 knots. The gridded forecast remains subdued at the
moment. The other item to think about is the potential for some
shallow convective showers to develop during the afternoon that
could result in downward momentum fluxing even if the lower
atmosphere remains moist.

Low amplitude ridging will bring a quiet period Thursday. Cold
advection in the wake of the Clipper is expected to result in
daytime highs Thursday some 10 degrees colder, readings around 50
degrees. Fast moving and phased split flow is expected to result in
very strong warm advection Thursday night and early Friday. Thermal
structures appears to be favorable to result in categorical rainfall
Friday with warm temperatures back to near 60 degrees.

Lower confidence exists with regards to precipitation timing and type
for this upcoming weekend. The reason for this low confidence is
that models are suggesting a continuation of a very phased split
stream keying off a deep polar low pressure system diving south of
James Bay. Just too much uncertainty that the models can get the
timing right for any Pacific shortwave energy arriving over the
Great Lakes. Quite the dance going on with the absolute vorticity
maximums around the pivoting planetary vorticity anomaly.
d(prog)/d(t) from 24 hours ago suggests a faster timing to the main
low ejection this weekend. With regards to precipitation type, a
faster ejection of the main low will result in less potential for
snow outside of traditional lake effect snow belts.

MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure will continue to build in through the
morning which will bring respite from the unsettled weather through
the day. Wind speeds will continue to diminish through the morning,
settling around 15 to 20 knots by the afternoon and evening hours.
The next likely chance for rain showers and breezy conditions will
return tomorrow as low pressure travels across northern lower
Michigan.

Departure of the low will pull a cold front across the Great Lakes,
with cold air advection ramping up across Lake Huron within the wake
of the low pressure system. A Gale Watch has been issued for a large
portion of Lake Huron between 18z Wednesday and 03z Thursday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for
     LHZ361>363-441-462.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......CB


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