389
FXUS63 KDTX 142033
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
333 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warm up through Saturday with highs climbing well above
normal into the 60s.

- Cold front Saturday brings rain chances late in the day and a
sharp drop in temperatures Saturday night.

- Breezy conditions of 30 to 40 mph possible both Saturday and
Sunday.

- Near normal temperatures expected through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Dry and seasonably warm conditions entrenched locally late this
afternoon, as an improving mean thickness field under building upper
heights contributes to the early stages of a very respectable 36
hour warming trend heading into the first half of the weekend.
Benign conditions persist this evening as the governing shortwave
upper ridge pivots across the region. Strengthening southwest flow
immediately downstream of pending height falls associated with a
system lifting into the northern great lakes will draw the
associated surface warm front through overnight. Weak signal for
ascent overall with limited moisture quality, suggesting generally a
benign fropa outside of perhaps a brief shower across the eastern
zones. Saturday morning lows arriving in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Southern expanse of height falls associated with an upper low over
Hudson Bay will glance across the great lakes this weekend. In
advance of this process, pattern of higher magnitude warm air
advection by November standards will emerge Saturday under a
sustained, firm southwest gradient. 925 mb wind field at 30 knots,
supporting a solid increase in diurnal gustiness within a modestly
mixed profile throughout the day. Peak gust potential into the 35 to
40 mph range. Inbound cold frontal timing lags just enough to afford
recovery of temperature toward the lower 60s despite the thicker
cloud cover. Limited window for possible late day shower production
associated with the front given lack of greater moisture quality or
depth. Forecast will continue to highlight a basic chance mention
for the afternoon period. Post-frontal advective process ramps up as
sunset arrives, allowing temperatures to accelerate downward rapidly
and temps landing back in the low to mid 30s by Sunday morning.

Deep layer northwest flow will govern the latter half of the
weekend. Greater moisture advection with a contribution off the
warmer lake waters will tend to largely hold to the north given this
trajectory , but some southward expansion remains plausible into at
least central lower mi. This could offer a lower probability for
some light rain/snow showers mainly across Saginaw Bay and northern
thumb. Daytime temperatures Sunday back below average with highs low
to mid 40s. Stretch of seasonably cool conditions will persist into
the early week, as the back end of high amplitude troughing only
slowly relinquishes control. Deep layer stability held within
confluent mid level northwest flow atop surface ridging ensures
benign conditions to start the work week.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure is in the process of departing the region this evening
ahead of broad low pressure tracking into the Hudson Bay. Attendant
cold front sags through Great Lakes daytime Saturday as a secondary
area of low pressure begins to develop along it near the St Marys
River. In advance early Saturday, winds organize from the east-
southeast before steadily veering to the southwest by late morning.
Strong warm air advection accompanies this flow regime increasing
overlake stability and limiting overall mixing potential which is
still expected to hold peak gusts at or below 25kts.

This secondary low center quickly pushes east-southeast across
Manitoulin Island and into southern Ontario Saturday afternoon
driving the cold front across the central Great Lakes. Colder air
rapidly drives south out of northern Canada as the upper trough
settles across the Great Lakes. Strongest NW winds are looking to
occur in this initial surge of cold air Saturday evening/night aided
by a localized tighter gradient from the low over southern Ontario.
High probability (>70%) to reach gales 35-40kt across the bulk of
Lake Huron save for the far southern waters during this timeframe.
There is some shot (~30%) at a few gusts creeping into the lower
40kts particularly over in the northern portion of the lake given
the favorable fetch. Northwest winds weaken slightly going into
Sunday morning as the low pushes up the St Lawrence offering a few
hour window where gusts dip toward the lower 30kt range. However,
any potential lull will be short lived as a secondary cold front
drops through the region late morning-afternoon Sunday marking the
arrival of the core of the cold airmass. This fropa re-strengthens
cold advection into the area supporting another round of widespread
35-40kt gales for the latter half of Sunday. Worth noting the wind
field is aloft is looking to be 5-10kts weaker compared to Saturday
night leading to lower chances to seeing gusts at or above 40kts
during this portion of the event. All Gale Watches have been
upgraded to Gale Warnings with Small Craft Advisories up for all
remaining nearshore waters. High pressure begins to build in Sunday
night into Monday allowing winds to weaken below gales and
eventually below 30kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

AVIATION...

Dry low level airmass and ceiling free skies below 5000 feet will
hold through the evening hours. Persistent south-southwest flow will
lead to an increase in low level moisture/surface dew pts, which
will eventually lead to developing low clouds over southeast
Michigan. Difficult forecast determining the exact hour when low clouds
arrive and subsequent ceiling height, as both IFR and MVFR are in
play. Will favor just Low MVFR in the 12-16z window. Otherwise, a
low VFR deck (noted upstream over the Ohio Valley) spreads in
overnight and early Saturday morning. Pockets of very light rain
showers are possible as low level convergence from approaching cold
front arrives, but right now the chance looks too low to include in
tafs through 18z. Strong southwest low level jet tracks through
Saturday morning, and some of the stronger winds, gusting around 25
knots are expected at the surface by afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight through Saturday.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ361>363.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     LHZ421-422.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ421-422.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ441-462-
     463.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 10 PM EST Sunday for
     LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 10 PM EST Sunday for
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....SF

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