566
FXUS63 KDTX 230852
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
352 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions develop today as northwest wind increases to
  gusts near 30 mph this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures highlight the early week period along
  with rain showers that move in late Monday night and continue
  through Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- A strong cold front is projected for late Tuesday night and
  Wednesday morning that could produce 40 mph wind gusts.

- Lake effect snow showers ensue Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day,
  and possibly into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low pressure in northern Ontario is pulling a cold front across
Lower Mi as of the 4 AM forecast issuance which is expected to exit
into Ontario leading up to sunrise. The front brings just a glancing
shot of colder air into the area this morning and then the low level
thermal trough shifts eastward leaving a quick transition back to
warm advection by afternoon. The result is temperatures that end up
a few degrees warmer than yesterday as nearly full sun helps boost
readings slightly above normal in the upper 40s to around 50.
Westerly wind gusts near 30 mph end up being the weather highlight
this afternoon into the early evening.

Warm advection continues tonight but is only able to produce
thickening high clouds this far south across Lower Mi. Model
soundings indicate a deep layer of dry air below 700 mb that will
render any moisture aloft to virga tonight into Monday morning.
Continued mild SW flow in the low levels raises temperatures further
during the day under partly sunny sky. Widespread guidance highs in
the lower 50s look good with a few mid 50s at the upper end of the
range, readings that will likely not be reached again in the
foreseeable future given the rain expected Tuesday followed by the
mid/late week cold surge.

Today`s Four Corners cut off low pressure system becomes the subject
of the Tuesday rain event that actually begins late Monday night.
Agreement is good among the deterministic models on a solution that
brings the system steadily across the southern/central Plains where
it connects with a cold front trailing a northern stream short wave
in northern Ontario. Midwest surface low development then directs
strong Gulf moisture transport into the Ohio valley and Great Lakes
where the upper level jet also aligns ageostrophic forcing favorably
to enhance the pattern for widespread rain showers across Lower Mi
through Tuesday.

Low pressure development transitions back into the upper Midwest
Tuesday night as the next northern stream mid/upper level wave moves
into the northern Plains. The new 00Z deterministic models maintain
good agreement on solutions that strongly deepen surface low
pressure as it moves from the upper Midwest toward central Lake
Superior by Wednesday morning. This is also in good agreement with
the ensemble systems that show similar mean depth and position while
also exhibiting lower/better spread among members by 12Z Wednesday.
This lends confidence to predictability on the system as it sends a
strong cold front across Lower Mi Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Precipitation is still all rain along and ahead of the cold
front followed by the mid level dry slot as cold air crashes through
Lower Mi Wednesday morning on westerly wind approaching Advisory
level gusts. The bulk moisture and thermal profile within the larger
scale system then support a ramp up of lake effect in a wind field
that easily carries activity into SE Mi Wednesday night into
Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.MARINE...

Low pressure over northern Ontario will continue to track east into
Southern Quebec to this afternoon. With strong high pressure moving
over the Central Plains, there is enough of a pressure gradient and
cold advection to support a period of gales over northern Lake Huron
today. The peak winds look to be mid day. The surface low is progged
to slowly weaken, thus gusts should hold in the 35 to 40 knot range.

Outside of northern Lake Huron, winds look to gust in the 20-30 knot
range, with Small Craft Advisories continuing for all of the Lake
Huron nearshore. Ridge of high pressure quickly builds in Sunday
evening, allowing for winds to subside Sunday night below headline
thresholds. Light to moderate southerly return flow then develops
early next week. However, the strong low tracking northeast through
the western Great Lakes and into northern Ontario will drag in the
coldest air of the season thus far. Snow squalls and northwest gales
appear likely in Wednesday-Thursday in the time period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

AVIATION...

Cold front on pace to sweep across southeast Michigan Sunday
morning. There remains some potential for a brief increase in lower
cloud development along and immediately behind the front. However,
upstream satellite trends paired with recent model guidance continue
to offer a more optimistic outlook overall. Forecast will continue
highlight a limited window for lower VFR cloud mid morning, with
greater coverage most likely at MBS and possibly FNT. Daytime
heating may maintain some degree of diurnal stratocu into the
afternoon, but likely of lower coverage and duration as mixing
eradicates remaining moisture. Southwest winds becoming
northwesterly with the frontal passage. Turning gusty through the
daylight hours, exceeding 20 knots at times.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less late Sunday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LHZ361-362.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for LHZ422-442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


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