787
FXUS63 KDVN 011941
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
241 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers to dissipate by early evening.

- Patchy fog, some dense, is possible late tonight into Sunday AM.

- High temperatures trending above normal for much of next week.

- Next chance of measurable rainfall will be Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Isolated to scattered showers driven by steep low level lapse rates
and an upper level shortwave should dissipate by early this evening
with the loss of solar insolation and the waning ascent as the
shortwave exits. Increasing subsidence in the wake of the exiting
system should foster at least partial clearing, or a mix of clear
skies and some cloud cover. As the clouds go, so go the temperatures
and fog potential. Areas that see a longer duration of clearing/
excellent radiational cooling/ should see lows bottom out below
32F with some radiational fog possibly dense as crossover temperatures
are breached. Areas that keep clouds longer will likely see lows
around 32F or a bit warmer and a lower risk for fog. For now, I`ve
broad-brushed patchy fog mention and later shifts can refine the fog
mention as cloud trends become more apparent.

Any fog should burn off mid-morning. Thereafter, we`ll see winds
increase and turn breezy by Sunday afternoon at 15-25 mph with
partly to mostly sunny skies. This should propel highs in the range
of around 50F to near 55F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

In general much of next week looks to be fairly quiet with temperatures
near to above normal as the flow aloft is semi-zonal or fast west to
east flow. This flow will shuttle periodic shortwaves through
mid-week, the first on Monday accompanied by a weak cool front/wind
shift and moisture starved and the other Wednesday a bit stronger
that will be preceded by gusty winds but a dry SSW flow to mitigate
any precipitation potential locally and keep it well to our north on
the cool side of the surface low track through the Upper Midwest.

Toward the end of next week (Thursday night into Friday) there
continues to be a signal for another stronger shortwave passing
through the region. With a longer duration of southerly flow in advance,
it has the potential to bring our next chance for measurable rain for some.
Unfortunately any rainfall amounts are looking light offering no relief
from the drought, with NBM and LREF probabilities for >0.25 inch at only
15-30%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions expected during the TAF cycle.
Scattered showers (40-50%) are ongoing early in the TAF period
primarily in the vicinity of KBRL attendant to a sagging upper level
shortwave. Additional isolated/widely scattered showers (20-30%)
will be possible areawide by mid afternoon into early this evening
(20z-02z) with a mid level deformation zone and presence of steep
low level lapse rates. Some decrease in clouds /mix of clear skies
and pockets of VFR to possibly some MVFR ceilings/ is anticipated
tonight with increasing subsidence on the backside of the departing
upper level wave. This coupled with light winds will bring the
potential for radiational fog developing after 06z through 15z Sunday.
The fog could bring IFR to VLIFR conditions to some locations with
the 12z HREF probabilities for visibility <1SM generally at 20-50% with
some pockets of higher probabilities of 60-70%. NBM probabilities are
much lower at less than 20% for visibilities <1SM and generally around
30% <5SM mainly near to south of KBRL and 10-20% elsewhere. This
illustrates the uncertainty on spatial extent and magnitude of fog.
LREF probabilities of total cloud cover >50% are greater than 50% with
around 60%+ near the Hwy 20 corridor. This would suggest the better fog
potential may be near to south of KBRL and given radar trends supportive
of some showers there aiding BL moisture will have at least MVFR to
possibly IFR fog mention for KBRL. Will probably leave out fog mention
elsewhere for now due to uncertainty with higher probabilities for
some clouds per LREF, but the fog potential will certainly need to be
monitored. On Sunday, winds will shift from the S/SW and begin to
increase to around 10-15 kt by 15z-18z with some gusts 15-25 kt developing
near the end of the period and just beyond through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure