929
FXUS63 KDVN 221145
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
545 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild dry weekend commences.

- Mild conditions continue into early next week with a rain
  system Monday and Monday night, then trending colder mid to
  late week.

- A late next week or weekend system possible with multiple types of
  precipitation. Low confidence at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Today...Have added some patchy fog mention acrs the northwestern CWA
where the cirrus has cleared for now, but patches of WAA AC acrs MN
and NW IA headed this way. Sfc high in place will give way to an
approaching sfc trof sweeping in from the northwest late this
afternoon and evening as a short wave digs down acrs the western GRT
LKS. The local area will become engulfed in the pre-trof gusty
southwest wind warm sector by aftrernoon. Wind gusts may range from
25 to 30 MPH by mid afternoon especially west of the MS RVR. If it
were not for a building sharp H85 MB inversion aloft limiting mixing
some, the winds would be even higher. High temps a bit challenging
today with the mixing depth question in mind, and will take the 50
percentile blend which ranges from around 50 in the far northeast,
to the upper 50s in the far west and southwest. At least some
partial sunshine today with bouts of cirrus and warm air
advection(WAA) AC moving acrs the area.

Tonight...After the sfc trof sweeps through the area for a sfc wind
switch to the northwest during the evening, an eventual ridge lobe
will follow in acrs the area behind the departing front for a sfc
wind decrease. if skies trend mostly clear, then it appears it will
be a cool night with widespread lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s,
and a bit milder in the far south. Valley fog may also be an
occurrence toward dawn Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Sunday...The sfc ridge makes it`s way off to the east while western
Rex Block low organizes acrs the 4-corners region. Sunshine and
return flow warming again to help highs back into the 50s. Fcst
soundings show a shallower sharp inversion aloft at H9 to H875 MB
that may limit mixing depth an a warmer high temp potential. South
winds and increasing high clouds off the organizing southwestern
plains system will make for a milder Sunday night into Monday
morning.

Monday and Tuesday...Ridge-undercutting low to roll up acrs the
area/mid and upper MS RVR Valley Monday into Monday night. Pre-
system warm moist conveyor will stream northward ahead of this
feature, fueling long reach precip from the TX Gulf to WI by Monday
night. The heaviest rainfall and storms will fall out acrs the ARK-
LA-TEX region into the low/mid MS RVR Valley, but secondary showers
may produce rainfall amounts locally of 0.20 to 0.40+ inches by Tue
morning. Then the latest ensembles suggest a bit of a lull Tue
morning/midday with mild air lingering in place before a following
strong cold front surges through the area by Tue evening. Strong
cyclonic flow and cold air advection pattern advertised for Tue
night could make for blustery west-northwest winds, falling temps
and possible snow showers or flurries getting wrung out acrs the
area.

Wednesday through Friday...Colder and blustery Wednesday with wrap
around flurries possible in the north, highs only in the 30s to low
40s. A cold Wed night well down in the 20s, leading to highs in the
30s for Thanksgiving under robust northwesterly steering flow. The
Cold will then look to last into Friday. Canadian ridging acrs the
area should keep this late week period mainly dry, but longer
wave upper trof energy looms out to the west in the ensembles
for a potential system for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Light and variable sfc wind and some MVFR fog in spots will give
way to increasing south to southwesterly winds by late morning.
The winds will become gusty up to 20+ KTs by this afternoon,
with CID possibly gusting up to 25 KTs at times ahead of a sfc
trof sweeping in toward the area. This trof will cause the winds
to veer to the west by this evening and northwest by late
evening and into the overnight. Will bank on these overnight
northwest winds maintaining enough to limit another fog threat
for late tonight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12