726
FXUS63 KDVN 041030
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
430 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record cold this morning, with sub-zero lows and wind
  chills between -10 and -25 degrees. Coldest values to occur
  6-8am in the morning, so dress warmly before heading out the
  door.

- Snow chances increasing Saturday night, with 40-60%
  probabilities of 1+" snow.

- Active northwest flow next week, with several clippers
  tracking near the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Early morning observations and RAP analysis show center of
1031mb surface high over southwest MN. Satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies over much of the Midwest, with just some
passing cirrus over southeast IA and west central IL. This has
kept temps in these areas in the lower teens so far, whereas
near zero temps were observed in cloud free areas. Winds have
been in the 5-10 mph range, pushing wind chills down into the
single digits to teens below zero.

Surface high to slide southeast into central IA by daybreak,
with winds decreasing under 5 mph to near calm conditions. This
will allow temperatures to drop quickly over our snow pack in
an ideal radiational cooling setup. Record cold temps are still
in jeopardy and can be referenced in climate section below. In
addition, wind chills at or just below -20 degrees for a few
hours around sunrise is expected and an SPS has been issued
highlighting this until 9am. Dress warmly this morning and cover
exposed skin!

Little to no temperature advection today combined with a low
sun angle and snow cover will result in not much temp recovery.
Have kept highs below most guidance, with readings only
reaching the upper single digits to middle teens! High pressure
moves further east tonight, with increasing south winds and
warmer temps aloft. Overnight lows will not be as cold with
readings in the -3 to +7 degree range. These may even be too
cold, if we see some clouds move in from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Friday-Sunday...a series of clippers in the northwest flow aloft
will track through the Midwest keeping the pattern active. Models
continue to show the first one moving through Friday night and
remaining to our north. The next system Saturday night-Sunday has
come in stronger across the board tracking through the central
Plains and Midwest. As a result, NBM PoPs/QPF have increased as
well as the probabilities for greater than 1" snow (now 40-60%
roughly north of I-80). However, considerable uncertainty
remains in the track/strength of the system with over a 200 mile
spread in solutions. The northernmost solutions near the IA/MN
are supported by the ECE/deterministic ECMWF, with the
GEFS/deterministic GFS/NAM all much further south over
southwest IA. The 00z RRFS offers another outcome with snow
across central IA. Needless to say, will keep broad brush
chance/low end likely PoPs Saturday night until better agreement
is realized. Friday and Saturday highs to top out in the upper
20s/low 30s, with colder values expected Sunday behind passing
system and possible fresh snow cover.

Early Next Week...cold start to the work week Sunday night,
with another 1034mb surface high overhead. These temperatures
will not be as cold as the current air mass this morning, with
850mb temps 4C warmer. Still could see a few locations with sub-
zero lows Monday morning. Two more clippers to track over the
upper Midwest (one Monday night-Tuesday and another 24hrs later)
with a general consensus keeping any appreciable snow potential
north across MN/WI. We would instead see a warm draw of above
freezing temps move into the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, with a
rain/snow mix possible. LREF (100 member ensemble) is showing
40-70% probabilities of 850mb temps above 0C Tuesday and
Wednesday supporting above freezing highs. Continue to monitor
the forecast for any updates and trends with these passing
systems.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions will be seen during the period. Winds to remain
under 10kts turning southerly behind departing high pressure.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 204 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Record Cold High Temperatures:

December 4:
KDBQ: 7 in 1991
KMLI: 14 in 1991

Record Low Temperatures:

December 4:
KBRL: -3 in 1991
KCID: -5 in 2005
KDBQ: -6 in 1991
KMLI: -2 in 1991

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Gross
CLIMATE...Gross