730
FXUS63 KDVN 150508
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1108 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front arrival Saturday will provide a breezy day with
  seasonally mild temperatures.

- Active pattern returns next week, with several chances for
  measurable precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Beautiful Fall weather conditions are occurring outside early
this afternoon with many hometowns already seeing 70+ degree
temperatures. Hopefully you are able to get outside for a
little bit to enjoy these temperatures! Dewpoints were rising
slower than forecast this morning, which combined with
persistent drought conditions attributed to the quick rise in
temperatures. We should get close to record highs today and
perhaps tie at Burlington and Moline. (see Climate section for
more details).

Tonight...clouds will begin to increase ahead of approaching
cold front dropping south currently out of the Dakotas.
Southwest winds aloft will also increase keeping us very mild
overnight, with readings only dropping into the mid to upper
50s.

Saturday...all model solutions now show the dry fropa occurring
just after sunrise, with winds switching out of the northwest
and increasing late morning and afternoon as we begin to mix
down. This is not a strong cold front by any means, with evenly
spaced isotherms shown at 850mb behind it. For this reason,
still think we will see another very warm day, with highs
reaching the middle 60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover trends will be
something to watch tomorrow, which could negatively impact
these readings if they stick around longer into the afternoon.
Winds will begin to subside after sunset with temperatures
dropping to more seasonable readings in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Sunday-Monday...large 1021mb surface high to move across the
Midwest bringing dry and seasonable conditions. Highs in the
upper 40s/low 50s and lows in the 30s are forecast.

Monday night-Tuesday...compact shortwave to track across the
central Plains, with a surface low moving east over KS/MO.
Forcing will increase ahead of this low, with some WAA precip
developing in a limited moisture environment. Low level easterly
flow and a dry sub cloud layer on forecast soundings may also
keep precip amounts quite low (LREF 24-hr probabilities >0.25"
QPF only at 20-30%). Model soundings also have backed off on
showing a rain-snow mix early Tuesday. Breezy easterly winds
and a tight thermal gradient to keep temperatures in the upper
30s/low 40s for much of the day, making for a rather chilly day.

Tuesday night-Saturday...an active weather pattern will begin to
take shape, with several waves moving through the southwest flow
aloft. Models continue to disagree on the evolution and speed of
a longwave trof moving east out of the desert southwest with
surface low placement differences in solutions as much as 450
miles. Regardless of which model verifies, a strong dynamic
low pressure system will bring a prolonged period of widespread
rainfall, large temperature swings, and strong winds to the
Midwest. This system could arrive as early as Wednesday night
lasting through Friday for the local area. The NBM is around
climatology for temperatures for this period and have left
values alone given the amount of uncertainty. Further details
will be ironed out in the coming days as models hopefully come
into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Strong southwest winds aloft will bring LLWS conditions
overnight into early Saturday morning, prior to morning arrival
of a cold front. This front will be dry, with VFR conditions
both ahead of it and behind it. The strong winds aloft will
subside as mixing bring in gusty winds along and behind the
front in the 12Z-18Z time frame. The remainder of the day and
evening behind the front will see rather breezy conditions from
the northwest, with clearing VFR skies. Wind gusts Saturday will
be northwest, at 15 to 25 kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Ervin