782
FXUS63 KDVN 111117
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
517 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy/windy today (south/southwest winds). There is a low
  chance (20-30%) for gusts greater than 40 mph.

- Warming trend into the weekend with the potential for near
  record highs for some on Friday and Saturday.

- The weather pattern looks to turn more active this weekend
  into early next week with chances for precipitation. However,
  uncertainty exists regarding the evolution of a potential
  storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Water vapor imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs, one
extending from central to southwest Minnesota, and the other
moving into western North Dakota which looks more pronounced/
stronger. Distance/speed tool on this latter wave places it
moving into our western service area toward midday. Both of
these will be accompanied by a period of extensive mid/high
cloudiness in the warm advection regime and increasing mid level
Fgen. Forcing certainly looks sufficient to support some
precipitation potential. The challenge is saturation, as
00z DVN, OAX, TOP and MPX RAOBs all depict a sizable dry layer.
This should lead to mostly virga or precipitation mainly
aloft with cloud bases mainly in range of 9-12kft agl. That
being said also can`t discount the potential for the forcing to
overcome saturation deficiency in the cool season, especially
given moderate strength lift, and so will be monitoring for
potential of a few flakes and perhaps even a very narrow quick
transitory ribbon of light snow for parts of our north/east
service area very early this morning (prior to daybreak) within
the stronger mid level Fgen. Should this occur it would be with
minimal/no impacts with minimal if any visibility restrictions
or accumulation. Then, another very low potential for a few
flakes or possibly even a few sprinkles toward midday with the
secondary vort max. This should then be followed up by
decreasing cloudiness this afternoon, as the wave packet
departs.

The combination of a tightening MSLP gradient and mixing of
higher winds aloft will lead to a brisk/windy day with
gusts 25 to 35 mph initially southerly veering to westerly this
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Progged 925 hPa
temps are from +2C NE to +7C SW by late PM. This would support
a general range of highs from 42F (less sun) to 47F (more sun)
NE to 51F (less sun) to 56F (more sun) SW.

Skies look to be mainly clear for most of tonight in the wake of
the cold front passage, with some increase in higher cloudiness
late with a strengthening upper level jet core. Soundings show
a shallow mixed layer with 10-20 kt of wind atop to where this
should keep the BL just enough mixed (around 10 mph) to prevent
lows from plummeting, and should see seasonable lows mainly in
the lower to mid 30s with pockets of upper 20s possible in the
drainage areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

An amplifying west coast ridge will gradually shift eastward
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12z Saturday. This will
support dry weather with a marked warming trend. In fact,
temperatures could be near record for highs Friday (south)
into Saturday (areawide) with 850 hPa temperature anomalies of
+10C to +15C Friday into Saturday, or +1 to +2SD per NAEFS and
ECMWF EFIs of 0.5 to 0.8 with little/no SoT (Shift of Tails)
supportive of the anomalous warmth. The median of the NBM,
or 50th percentile for highs, is in the 60s/near 70 Friday and
mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday. Record highs are generally around
70 to 75.

Heading through the weekend into early next week brings some
uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern and strength
of systems, some of which is tied to whether any phasing of
streams in a generally split flow pattern occurs. WPC clusters
depict this well and offer a couple of scenarios. One scenario
would suggest more phasing or interaction of streams leading to
a stronger shortwave over the central CONUS. This would lead
to much higher precipitation chances with a stronger moisture
feed and forcing, with even some instability to support a chance
of thunder. The other scenario is one of less phasing and more
split flow with a progressive northern stream initially more
dominant for us. This would support a progressive cold frontal
passage over the weekend with more limited moisture and low
precipitation chances followed by a cool down toward more
seasonable levels. Also in this latter scenario, the southern
stream energy would eventually lift out across the central
CONUS next week with uncertainties on strength/timing/track
per WPC Clusters. Much of the deterministic medium range
guidance and ensemble means of GEFS/EPS/CMCE support this
second scenario of a more split flow with a progressive
northern stream cold front moving through this weekend and
followed by a meandering southern stream shortwave into the
central U.S. next week. NBM in the uncertainty broadbrushes low
chances (20-30%) for precipitation Saturday night through
Monday, but do expect to see refinement of these in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Winds remain the primary concern for the TAFs as VFR conditions
abound. LLWS mention continues until 14z with winds increasing
to 40-50 kt from SSW around 2kft agl. After 14z, mixing of
stronger winds aloft will lead to more consistent gustiness of
surface winds from S/SW with gusts 25-35 kts. Winds will veer
to westerly this afternoon and remain gusty before diminishing
to around 10 kt with sunset.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure