643
FXUS63 KDVN 030531
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal fire risk is in place Monday due to windy
  conditions, warm temperatures and dropping humidity levels.

- Warmer than normal temperatures will be seen this week before
  a pattern change takes place over the weekend.

- Rain chances return Thursday night into Friday morning.
  Rainfall amounts look to be 0.10 inches or less. There is a
  much weaker signal for rain Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Quiet and breezy conditions will be seen through late afternoon with
winds quickly diminishing with sunset.

After midnight a cold front will sweep through the area. Moisture is
very limited and the better forcing runs from Minnesota into
Wisconsin. However, given the weak forcing from the front, some
isolated sprinkles cannot be ruled out north and east of an
Independence, IA to Sterling, IL line with the passage of the front.

Dry and warmer conditions will be seen across the area on Monday.
Deep mixing of the atmosphere will allow higher momentum air to mix
down starting late morning and continuing through the afternoon with
wind gusts up to 25 mph possible. Given the current drought
conditions, a marginal fire weather risk exists, mainly for
agricultural fields.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Monday night through Thursday
Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of above normal
temperatures.

A fast zonal pattern is in place across the CONUS through much of
the week. Any systems moving through in the flow aloft will have
limited moisture so only clouds will mark their passing.

A thermal ridge will be across the area helping to keep temperatures
well above normal for early November, especially Tuesday. Although
quite low, there is a 10-15 percent probability of seeing 70 degree
temperatures on Tuesday south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL
line.

Thursday night and Friday
Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of some rain

The global models are in very good agreement of sweeping another
storm system through the Midwest. While there are some disagreements
on track in the deterministic runs, most ensemble members from the
various global models take the track of the system north of the
area. That being the case the better forcing is across MN/WI. Thus
any rain that occurs would come during the passage of the cold front.

While the model consensus has 40-60 percent pops for rain, rainfall
amounts will be on the light side; 0.10 inch or less. Given the
projected track of the low, the higher rain amounts would be
along/north of highway 30.

Friday night
Assessment...Very high (>90%) confidence of dry conditions and
temperatures at or slightly above normal.

The fast zonal flow will bring a fast moving high through the area
Friday night resulting in dry conditions. Attention then turns to
the next system.

Saturday/Saturday night
Assessment...low to medium (20-40%) confidence on rain chances.

The global models bring another system through the area during the
first part of the weekend. However, there are differences in timing
by 6-12 hours and in the track.

The ECMWF/UKMET are similar on timing/track in bringing the low
along or just north of I-80. The CMC/ICON models are slower and much
further south. The GFS has only and open wave and is much colder
than the other global models but its track is somewhat similar to
the CMC/ICON models.

Interestingly, the mean of the GEFS shows very little or no
precipitation for the weekend system. The EPS/GEPS/ICON-EPS means do
show precipitation but amounts under 0.10 inches with the higher
amounts north of I-80.

From the large scale synoptic picture, the weekend system will not
have much moisture associated with it. The progged light rainfall
amounts are also consistent with phases 5 and 6 of the MJO.

So confidence is low regarding rainfall with the system Saturday. A
best estimate at this time is for isolated to low end scattered (20-
30%) coverage for rain showers with amounts likely to be well under
0.10 inches; some areas will not see any precipitation at all.

Sunday
Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a pattern
change leading to much cooler temperatures.

The early weekend system will result in a brief pattern chance that
will allow much cooler air to move into the Midwest. The ECMWF is
more aggressive than the other global models in bringing a chunk of
Canadian polar air into the Midwest and east coast that would result
in well below normal temperatures.

Given a progged low amplitude ridge on the west coast and low
amplitude trof on the east coast (result of a weakly positive PNA
pattern), the more likely scenario is a cool down to or slightly
below normal temperatures (similar to last Friday) into the first
part of next week before another warm-up commences.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a slow wind
shift being the main impact to aviation. No sig wx impacts
expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Gibbs