660
FXUS63 KDVN 261929
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
129 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds will continue into this evening/tonight, as a
  potent storm system continues to push east. Wind Advisory
  remains in effect until 6pm, with gusts upwards to 45 mph
  possible.

- Thanksgiving forecast looks to be a quiet and cool day, with
  temperatures in the 30s and seasonal breeziness.

- Wintry weather is likely as we head into the weekend, as a
  seasonally strong storm system passes through the Midwest.
  Uncertainty remains on timing and overall impacts, but we
  continue to trend snowy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The windy conditions will continue into this evening and last
through the night. Although, through the night, we will start to see
the higher-end wind gusts go down. Winds will remain out of the
northwest tonight, with gusts largely between 20-30mph, but a few
higher gusts cannot be ruled out. These winds will combine with
temperatures in the low-mid 20s, making it quite unpleasant. Wind
chills will be dropping into the low-mid teens. Otherwise, we will
be dry though the night with mostly clear skies.

Thanksgiving will be a nice transitional day from one active stretch
of weather to the next, with high pressure passing through the
region. Thus, we will continue to see mostly clear skies throughout,
but seasonal breeziness and cool temperatures remain. So, while we
are looking at quiet weather, it will be a little cooler than
normal. Thus, a dry and breezy holiday is expected, with
temperatures in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday through the holiday weekend, we are in for quite the storm
system. Potent wave ejects off of the Rockies Friday night and heads
towards the Upper Midwest through Saturday. This will lead to
widespread wintry weather throughout parts of the region, where we
are looking at the potential, with 50-80% favorability, for several
inches of snow. Below, we will start to dive into more of the
details. Although, the bottom line up front is that it would be best
to start your holiday travel planning now, as widespread travel
impacts are likely for some Friday night through Saturday.

Over the last few days, we have been watching for trends in
guidance. The first trend is that we trended from more of a
rain/snow event to a mostly snow event. Along with this, the
probabilities for higher-end snowfall amounts have been trending
upwards as well over the last 24 hours. One thing to note here is
that some of these probabilities seem to be heavily influenced by
the Euro, which is the most aggressive when it comes to snowfall
amounts. This has influenced the NBM, which is also noting a steady
increasing trend in totals. Thus, our biggest forecast challenge
will be the overall snowfall totals. Fortunately, we are still a few
days out and have time to hone in on this. Although, we are not
completely sold on what the Euro guidance is showing, as it is
largely an outlier. The GFS/GEFS and the Canadian suite of guidance
are not as high with totals, but still bring impactful snowfall. Due
to this uncertainty, we are not ready to discuss potential ranges on
snowfall, as those ranges are still rather large. Rather, we will
dive into probabilities for certain amounts using ensemble and NBM
guidance. This will be discussed more below. At this time, we have
moderate-high confidence that snow will impact at least the northern
half of our area, with Interstate 80 being the rough center of our
forecast area. These areas should remain snow through the duration
of the event. For areas south of the interstate, we are still
expecting snow, but those areas will have the best chance to see
some rain mix in. This is another area of uncertainty, as there is
the chance that these locations stay all snow, but some guidance
does introduce rain. Thus, if rain is included, totals may be lower
in our south. Although, best chances for any rain mix-in still seem
to be along/south of Highway 34.

Now, going into the nature of the storm and possible amounts. This
will be a long duration snowfall event. Guidance is pretty well in
line on this system moving in Friday night, possibly before midnight
in our northwest, overspreading the area Saturday morning and
lasting into Saturday night. So, we are expecting a long duration of
light-moderate snow (lower rates) with some periods of heavy
snowfall as well. Although, we are not expecting this to be several
hours of heavy snow. So, there will be some decreased intensity in
the mix, which may allow for some clearing of roads and such. Now,
lets talk about potential snowfall amounts. As was mentioned, the
Euro continues to yield the highest totals, while the remainder of
guidance is running a little lower, albeit still impactful. The best
chances for higher snowfall will be along/north of the Interstate 80
corridor, where the probability for 4" of snow is 90-100% and for 6"
of snow or more being 75-90%. South of the interstate has about a 60-
80% chance for 4"+, with 35-70% chance for 6"+. Thus, these higher
ranges in percentages indicate that there remains uncertainty in
these areas. One thing to keep in mind is that these probabilities
are pretty high already, indicating that there will be a chance
for higher-end totals. Although, we are still a ways out from
this storm and expect some fluctuations. With these potential
totals in mind, it will be best to start holiday travel planning
in advance, as travel may become dangerous this weekend.

Sunday, we will largely be in the wake of this system, where we
should start to see most/all precipitation taper off through the
morning. From there, a northwest flow regime will set up, ushering
even colder air into the area. Thus, daytime temperatures might very
well be in the 20s early next week, with nights in the single
digits. This will allow any new snow from the weekend to stick
around a little bit. We are also seeing the potential for this
active pattern to continue. So, precipitation chances will also be
on the table next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

We continue to see low clouds over part of the area, which have
largely remained around 3000ft. Although, we may continue to
see some cigs briefly between 2500-3000ft into the afternoon.
Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the strong winds
that we are seeing. Widespread northwest winds are sustained
between 20-30 KTs, with gusts upwards to 45-55 KTs. We will see
these higher-end gusts decrease through the afternoon/evening,
but we will still remain quite gusty after 00z. Gusts will
remain around 20-30 KTs through the night, lightening up as we
approach 12z Thursday. Otherwise, we will have mostly clear
skies through much of the TAF period after we lose the current
cloud deck.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ015-024>026-
     034-035.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-016>018.
MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel