109
FXUS63 KDVN 181755
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat is on for today, as a Heat Advisory continues across
  the entire area through 8 pm this evening

- Relief from the heat will come for some in the form of a cold
  front that will sink southeastward Tuesday night/Wednesday

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Wednesday

- The pattern will remain active for late tonight through the
  upcoming weekend, with periodic chances of showers and storms

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Headlines: Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire
forecast area through 8 pm this evening. This is for heat
indices of 95 to around 100.

Today: Already starting very warm early this morning with
temperatures well into the 70s. Therefore, another hot and
humid day ahead with highs in the lower to mid 90s with
dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will soar heat indices to 95 to
around 100 degrees (similar to yesterday). Take frequent breaks
if you have to be outdoors!

Meanwhile, scattered showers in southeast Illinois, lifting
northward around the periphery of the heat dome in the mid
Atlantic states, may graze our far eastern counties today (20
percent chance). Elsewhere, a dry forecast for today.

Tonight: Convection should be on the increase in our northwest
counties (60 percent chance) as a cold front slowly pushes in
our direction. CAM`s indicate a line of weakening storms
entering our far nw counties shortly after midnight. Shear is
weak and instability is waning by the time the storms arrive.
However, can`t rule out gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Lows
should be in the lower to mid 70s at most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Wednesday: With low pressure tracking from Northern MN to James
Bay, and the heat dome to our east, the cold front is expected
to stall roughly from Freeport, IL to Sigourney, IA. CAM`s
suggest at least scattered thunderstorms or clusters should
develop in the vicinity of the front (highest pops nw). Shear is
weak but there will be sufficient CAPE of around 2000 J/kg to
trigger isolated severe storms producing severe wind gusts. SPC
has portions of eastern IA and northwest IL in a MRGL risk
(Level 1 of 5), mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Highs will range from the upper 70s nw to the lower 90s se.

Thursday through Friday: Our area appears to remain in the
right location for periodic chances of showers and storms
through the end of the week, with continued shortwave ridging
through the end of the long-term period. Strong to severe storm
threat appears very low, given continued meager values of
instability and shear. In fact, the CSU machine-learning severe
probs continue to indicate either very low probabilities or
none at all for this period. Temperatures will be greatly
dependent on where showers and storms form. For locations that
stay dry, very warm temperatures will continue, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. For
those that get under showers/storms, look to cool down to the
70s and lower 80s.

This weekend: Global models similar in developing a stronger
trough and surface low tracking from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes region. This sweeps a cold front across our
forecast area Saturday afternoon and night, which may offer the
potential for strong to severe storms. This is a pattern change
as this deepening trough into the eastern United States breaks
down the persistent heat dome. Highs 90-95 on Saturday and then
in the 80s on Sunday.

Early next week: Another pattern change to a heat dome building
in the southern Plains with hot weather returning to our area
with highs again in the lower 90s. Pattern recognition suggests
MCS`s riding the edge of the heat dome will impact near or
across the forecast area. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mainly VFR conditions, with a few pockets of lingering BKN
coverage MVFR CU this afternoon. Will bank on the sctrd line of
showers and storms now acrs central IA, decaying as they try to
push eastward toward the local area and EML environment with
less optimum mid layer lapse rates. Gusty south to southwest
sfc winds up to 30 KTs into early evening. Then looks like a
VFR evening, before we will have to focus on another line of
showers and storms moving in from the west mainly after 10 pm in
the northwest, to after midnight further to the east. Expect
the line to be weakening as it arrives, but it still may produce
temporary MVFR to IFR VSBYs and CIGs as it pushes through and
tried to time a few PROB windows at CID and DBQ anyway. Less
certain if some of this will get into the VCNTY of MLI and BRL
after 4-5 AM if it can maintain some or continues to fall apart.
Brisk south winds to continue overnight.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

June 18:
KDBQ: 74/1921
KMLI: 77/2018

June 19:
KDBQ: 76/1931
KMLI: 78/1953

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-002-007-
     009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...Schultz/Uttech