953
FXUS63 KDVN 140757
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
157 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through
  Saturday.

- Active pattern returns next week, with several chances for
  organized and measurable precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today through Saturday afternoon, a seasonally mild air mass will be
spreading over the Midwest, with a broad, dry warm sector over our
CWA. This will bring two days of highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s, paired with southwest winds.  Today will be the more pleasant
of the two days, as winds will be generally under 15 mph in all
locations and times today.  With sunny skies today, highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will feel fantastic for anyone outdoors.

Tonight, a quick moving wave will move along the Canadian border,
resulting in increased winds at the surface and aloft overnight and
Saturday.  These south winds will bring a very mild night, with lows
only falling to the lower to upper 50s, as mid and high clouds
increase through the night. Surface winds in the 10 to 15 mph
sustained range will develop overnight, and last through the morning
hours Saturday.

Saturday`s cold fropa is certainly a concern for how warm we get.
There is an increased number of models suggesting an earlier fropa,
with CAA through the late morning and afternoon. However, the mean
NBM solution remains consistent with an early afternoon fropa,
resulting in another day in the lower 70s for the south half of the
area, and mid 60s in the north. Should the faster fropa be accurate,
this thermal layout would take place farther south of course.  In
any case, Saturday is a breezy, dry day, with periods of mid and
high clouds quickly moving through the region. By Saturday evening,
northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph will continue through mid evening,
before quieting down by late evening with clear skies. Lows in the
lower to mid 30s are near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Sunday, a narrow axis of high pressure is forecast to be stretched
from eastern North Dakota, through Illinois, with resulting in cool,
quiet, dry conditions. Highs near 50 north to mid 50s south are
forecast Sunday.

By Sunday night, and definitely into Monday clouds will arrive, as
compact short wave is forecast to move into the Midwest. By Monday
night, this is expected to result in a narrow swath of over-running
WAA rain and rain/snow. For now, it does not appear we`re cold
enough for winter impacts, but some mixed rain and snow are
certainly possible at times Monday night. Moisture is limited with
this event, but with great thermal contrast available for this wave,
models are indicating rather strong F-gen forcing, possibly similar
to last Saturday. This frontal zone aloft may remain active with
light precipitation through Tuesday, making for a cool, cloudy, and
damp day potentially.

By mid to late week, models continue to forecast a very interesting
pattern, and by far this forecaster`s personal favorite....a
progressive synoptic upper trof!   What that means for the Midwest,
and for a lot of the county for that matter, is that there is
growing potential for a large, dynamic, low pressure system forming
in the lee of the Rockies towards midweek. This would develop as the
deep western trof emerges east from the 4-corners area. This
easterly push of the trof is suggested as a strong system arrives
onto the Pac-Northwest/California. This large scale forcing would
support a broad synoptic low over the Midwest, with both widespread
rainfall, and depending on the track, quite a bit of temperature
anomaly, as the warm sector would be very mild and moist, given a
nearly wide open gulf moisture feed.  This period is certainly one
to watch as to the details on what this potential storm will bring.
I.E. stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Clear skies and light south to southeast winds will continue
through Saturday morning. Through the late morning, a
general wind shift to the southwest is expected at all sites,
with wind speeds remaining generally under 10 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Record high temperatures

November 14:

Burlington:    75 / 1964
Cedar Rapids:  75 / 1964
Dubuque:       70 / 1971
Moline:        75 / 1971

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin
CLIMATE...Gross