229
FXUS63 KDVN 032245
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
445 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impressive early season cold tonight through Friday morning,
  with the coldest being tonight/Thursday morning when daily
  record lows are forecast.

- The coldest temperatures between 5 and 10 A.M. Thursday will
  be during little wind, however intersect the start to school
  and work days, so early season cold preparedness is stressed.

- Series of snow-potential systems this weekend into at least
  the first half of next week, with one on Saturday night
  showing increased signal for accumulating snow in the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The well-advertised arctic front is crossing the Mississippi
River this mid-afternoon. A zone of forcing along and ahead of
this is resulting in transient saturation and ephemeral pockets
of snow. While this snow is moderate in intensity, it is
falling briefly in any one place and in 32-34 air temperatures
and having limited impacts. This zone of light snow and possibly
a brief drizzle should exit the eastern CWA by 6 PM. Patchy
flurries are probable behind this within the stratocumulus as it
is collocated in the flurry-susceptiable dendritic growth zone.

A long wave trough from a Hudson Bay vortex center will swing
into the region through Thursday. We are now in the cold air
advection (CAA) zone ahead of this and behind the aforementioned
surface front. That CAA will continue much of the night with
falling temperatures despite some lingering clouds. By the pre-
dawn hours, the winds will have shut off under then a clear sky
and with snow cover maximizing long wave radiation escape, and
temperatures should do an even sharper drop. For areas in and
northwest of Cedar Rapids, negative double digits are probable
(50-70% chance). Most of the CWA along/north of U.S. Highway 34
looks to drop below zero, which is markedly early in the winter.
For more context on the cold, see our Climate AFD below.

With the early season nature of this cold and considering wind
chills near -20 in parts of eastern Iowa north of I-80, it led
to consideration of a Cold Weather Advisory. The collaborative
decision was that with the winds having dropped off to very
light during the most impacting time of 5-10 A.M., that we
would message it hard and allow that to speak for the cold. That
messaging is even if is early December, bundle up as if mid-
winter in the morning!

With such a low starting point, temperatures will not rebound
much despite a sunny day, and likely remain in the single
digits over the deepest snow cover north/west of Cedar Rapids.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Friday-Sunday...northwest flow to bring a series of clippers through
the Midwest keeping the pattern active. The first one looks to be
track through Friday night and should remain mostly to our north,
with the next one right on its heels moving through the central
Plains Saturday night-Sunday. This wave will be the one to watch for
any measurable precip/snow for our area, with continued uncertainty
on the exact strength and track of this system. The EC ensemble is
more aggressive than the CMC and GFS ensembles, showing the
potential for several inches of snow. Yet confidence remains low
with the NBM showing 30-50% probs for 1"+ roughly north of I-80,
highest in our northwest counties. Thermal profiles still suggest
all snow with this system.

Early Next Week...another cold airmass to keep below normal temps
through Monday across the region, with dry conditions as another
surface high moves overhead. Another fast moving clipper will track
over the Canadian Rockies and drop southeast into the Midwest Monday
night bringing more chances of precipitation. Behind this system,
models are hinting at a warm-up taking place with above freezing
highs possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Continue to monitor our
forecast for any updates and trends with these passing systems.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A cold but relatively quiet TAF period. Both MVFR stratocumulus
and west-northwest winds will gradually ease this evening into
overnight. Winds will be light and variable Thursday morning
before turning southerly behind the departing high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 124 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Putting the incoming cold tonight and Thursday into perspective.
Sub zero lows are not that common this early in the season and
has only happened 4 times or less since 2000 at CID and DBQ. It
has not happened for 34 years at MLI. If CID were to hit -10
degrees, it would be the earliest negative double digit lows
since 1891.

Earliest sub-zero temps since:
CID: 11/12/2019
DBQ: 11/12/2019
MLI: 12/4/1991

Record Cold High Temperatures:

December 4:
KDBQ: 7 in 1991
KMLI: 14 in 1991

Record Low Temperatures:

December 4:
KBRL: -3 in 1991
KCID: -5 in 2005
KDBQ: -6 in 1991
KMLI: -2 in 1991

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Friedlein
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Friedlein
CLIMATE...Gross