058
FXUS63 KDVN 091900
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
200 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated/scattered showers (30-50%) and isolated storms will
  be possible late tonight. Light rainfall will be common (less
  than a tenth of an inch for most locations). Another chance
  of rain is possible Sunday night.

- Temperatures gradually warm up through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Dry conditions will prevail for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening hours today, thanks to abundant dry air over the region. The
area of high pressure that has brought lots of sunshine over the
last few days will continue to move off to the east, and a weak
front will cross the area late tonight. Southerly return flow around
the high has brought temperatures into the mid to upper 60s today,
which is actually closer to average for this time of the year.

We continue to track a weak front progged to sweep through the area
after midnight tonight through Friday morning. The main question
continues to be how much rainfall will result from this front as
there is plenty of dry air in place (seen in the 09.12z HREF
ensemble soundings). The column appears to saturate via top-down
saturation processes, but even if we get sufficient depth to the
moisture, we quickly dry out aloft, so thinking rainfall will remain
limited. Most locations will probably see at least measurable rain,
so we have boosted PoPs slightly to the 30 to 50% range, which falls
more in line with the HREF 1-hr probabilities of 0.01" or more of
rainfall. The HREF ensemble probability matched-mean (PMM) QPF
fields suggest less than a tenth of an inch for most of the region.
However, higher amounts remain possible, especially for areas south
of Highway 34 where Pwats (1 to 1.2 inches) and instability (nearly
500 J/kg of MUCAPE) appear to be their highest. Any locations that
see thunderstorms will see the most rainfall with this front (up to
around a quarter inch of rain possible per the HREF PMM QPF).

Chances of rain will continue into the late morning/early afternoon
hours Friday across the southeastern CWA before tapering off,
leading to a pleasant afternoon. High temperatures look to warm into
the lower to middle 70s, warmest where skies clear out and daytime
heating increases over the northwestern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Friday night through Sunday: the aforementioned front that will move
through late tonight and Friday will be well out of the area by
Friday night, leading to a period of dry and quiet conditions as
high pressure develops in its wake. Friday night should be another
cool night, but frost potential appears unlikely given less than 10%
chance of overnight lows below 40 degrees F per the latest LREF.
Still, Friday night lows should dip to the lower to middle 40s for
most. Temperatures will remain seasonal on Saturday, with mostly
sunny skies, as highs warm to the upper 60s to near 70. Temperatures
look to warm up slightly for Sunday as winds turn more
southeasterly, warming to the lower to middle 70s. Sunday will be a
day to keep an eye on for some elevated fire danger potential as the
southeast winds look to strengthen as surface pressure gradient
tightens. NBM maximum wind gust potential on Sunday appears to be
around 25 to 35 mph, so we`ll need to keep an eye on this.

Sunday night through Wednesday: a more active pattern looks to
develop as a longwave upper trough builds over the Pacific
Northwest. Ahead of the trough, the remnant moisture of what is
presently Tropical Storm Priscilla will be lapped up and advect
northeastward over the Corn Belt. This moisture should result in
another round of showers and an isolated storm (20-40% chance)
possible Sunday night into Monday. Pwats should be a bit higher with
the tropical moisture as the ECMWF ensemble climatological
percentiles reach over 90%, but still dry air in place could help to
limit amounts. Another chance of rain is possible for Wednesday.

Monday looks to be the warmest day of this stretch, with highs in
the middle 70s to near 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR will continue this afternoon and evening before a weak
front sweeps through the area after midnight into early Friday
morning. The front will support isolated to scattered (20-50%
chances) showers and isolated storms. Confidence in MVFR
visibility reductions remains very low (less than 10%), so
continued 6SM in PROB30 groups for now. It`s not out of the
question that MVFR visibilities could occur if a heavier shower
goes right over a terminal, but again, this potential is quite
low at this time.

Southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots this afternoon will slowly
turn more southerly tonight ahead of the rainfall and continue
to turn more westerly as the front passes through.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz