123
FXUS63 KDVN 041017
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
517 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Anomalous /summer-like/ warmth continues this weekend with
  near record highs potentially for some today and Sunday.

- Dry, warm and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire
  weather concerns today and Sunday, especially for field
  fires.

- Rain is likely (60-70%) for much of the area between Sunday
  night and early Tuesday along a slow moving cold front, and
  will be followed by cooler, more seasonable early fall
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Today into Sunday, we`ll reside in strengthening low level warm
advection/southerly flow between departing high pressure over
the Ohio Valley and a lifting low from the Plains into the
Upper Midwest. A tightening pressure gradient and mixing of winds
aloft will lead to breezy conditions of 15-25 mph, with NBM
probabilities for gusts > 30 mph at 15-30% roughly along and
west of a Dubuque to Iowa City line today that increases to
30-50% for much of the from Quad Cities north/west on Sunday.

The abundant solar insolation and very dry ground should foster
robust/deep mixing and lead to highs solidly in the 80s to near
90, which may be near records for some (refer to climate section
below).

The very dry, unseasonably warm and breezy conditions will also
lead to heightened fire weather concerns, particularly for
field fires. In adjusting dew points down a bit from NBM based
on the optimum mixing setup and very dry antecedent conditions,
peak minimum/low RH values are roughly in the 25-35% range both
afternoons. Both wind and RH are marginal for Red Flag criteria
with subsequent GFDIag values peaking in the very high range.
But, still heightened fire weather concerns as any spark in a
field or brush in these conditions could lead to the rapid
growth and spread of a fire. Thus, we urge extreme caution with
outdoor equipment in the fields and strongly discourage any
outdoor burning. Some counties are under burn bans, so please
heed those! In addition to our messaging on social media and
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook we`re also planning to issue a
Special Weather Statement today to further bring attention to
the elevated fire danger and will likely need to do the same on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A cold front will approach the region Sunday night, and then
nearly put the brakes on and slowly crawl across the region
Monday/Monday night, as it becomes parallel to the mid/upper
level flow. The slower progression will allow for more
Gulf moisture entrainment as noted last night with PWATs still
shown to increase into the range of 1.3 to 1.5 inches. It`s
still looking like two rounds of rain potential, with the
first round Sunday night into Monday AM across our north/west
service area along the front in the form of showers and some
storms. A second round is then anticipated later Monday and
especially Monday night, as a round of synoptic scale lift
aided by upper jet divergence atop the surface cold front
leads to an expansive shield of showers and perhaps a few
embedded storms. The good news is that probabilities from
ECMWF and GFS ensembles and NBM support a very high likelihood
(70-90%+) for measurable rain (>.01 inch) for the region ending
12z Tuesday. The bad news is that this doesn`t look to be a
drought-busting rainfall. That being said, there is some signal
for pockets of 0.5+ inch of rain, particularly north/west
of the Quad Cities or roughly in the corridor along and west
of a Dubuque to Ottumwa line. GFS ensembles probabilities are
15-30% for 0.5 inch, particularly further south in this
corridor, while the ECMWF is 40-60% and the NBM is 50-70%.
Yesterday`s 12z LREF mean rainfall lines up with 0.5 to 0.7
inch amounts in that same general quadrant of the service area.
So the main takeaways are that many of us should see some
measurable rain in the period between Sunday night and early
Tuesday morning. This will not be a drought-buster, but it
appears some areas have the potential to see some beneficial
amounts of 0.5-0.75+ inch, with the signal favoring areas
along/west of a Dubuque to Ottumwa line at this time. This is
still subject to shift/change pending the frontal timing, so
stay tuned!

Monday temperatures will be quite challenging with the clouds,
rain chances and front likely bisecting the region. Much of the
area from Quad Cities on south/east where initially rain chances
are lower do appear likely to squeeze out one more warm day
Monday with highs potentially in the 80s pending sufficient
solar insolation. Meanwhile, a much cooler day appears likely on
tap for our northwest service area on Monday near to just
post-frontal with plenty of clouds and greater rain chances with
the developing light northerly wind likely holding highs in the
60s to near 70.

The front is slated to exit the area on Tuesday and will be
followed by a couple of days of cooler, more seasonable
temperatures mid-week. Toward the end of next week and
especially next weekend and just beyond there are signs of
warmth returning, as ridging looks to build back in aloft.
CPC`s 8-14 day outlook has the area likely (60-70%) above normal
for temperatures October 11-17th.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Winds remains the only concern during the TAF cycle, as they
will turn gusty from the S/SW today with gusts of 15-25 kts,
highest at CID and DBQ. Southerly winds will subside a bit with
sunset, but remain sustained around 10 kts and occasionally
gust higher at times through the night. LLWS is possible at CID
and DBQ after 06z/05. Aside from the winds, VFR conditions will
persist.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Saturday October 4th Records

Burlington....91....1938
Cedar Rapids..91....1938
Dubuque.......89....1897
Moline........91....2005

Sunday October 5th Records

Burlington....89....2007
Cedar Rapids..90....2024
Dubuque.......87....1922
Moline........89....2024

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...McClure