937
FXUS63 KDVN 221920
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
120 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry weekend continues

- A wet system will move through the area Monday and Monday night,
  bringing likely chances (70-90%) of rain area-wide

- A pattern change is expected mid-week next week, with much
  colder and more blustery conditions for Wednesday through the
  end of the week, but overall, staying dry

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mild and dry conditions will continue over the area for the
remainder of the weekend, thanks to a very dry air mass anchored
overhead. This afternoon into the evening: a weak surface front
currently moving through northwestern Iowa will sweep through the
area this evening as a mid-level shortwave impulse translates
through the western Great Lakes region. Due to the dry air in place,
no precipitation should result from this front. The main impact from
the front will likely be a wind shift, starting from the southwest
this afternoon, veering more west to northwesterly tonight. Winds
could be on the breezy side, possibly gusting between 20 to 25 mph.
It should be a clear night tonight, given low probabilities (20% or
less) of cloud cover per the 22.12z HREF. However, there is some
guidance that hints at fog late tonight into early Sunday morning
for our southern areas, but the signal isn`t particularly strong,
especially if winds don`t go light, so will leave out of the
forecast for now. With the clear skies tonight, lows should range
from near 30 north to the lower/mid 30s south.

Sunday into Sunday night: surface high pressure moves into the
region, along with a mid-level ridge axis, supporting yet another
mild and dry day as highs warm to the middle 50s for most. With the
surface high pressure in place, winds will be light and variable, so
things are looking great for any outdoor activities you need to get
done. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night ahead of the next
system that will impact our region Monday into Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A Rex Block low pressure system will take shape over the Baja
California region today, and slowly make its way northeastward
towards our region by Monday given an associated cut-off upper low.
The shortwave eventually becomes an open wave by the time it reaches
the Corn Belt. Southerly flow ahead of the wave will help enhance
theta-e advection, and Pwat values are progged to be up to one inch
per the GEFS ensembles. The ECMWF ensemble climatological
percentiles for Pwats has these values above the 90th percentile,
indicating anomalously high moisture for late November. This system
will bring likely potential (70-90%) for rain area-wide. Decent
rainfall amounts are possible, with the latest NBM exceedance
probabilities of a quarter inch or more is around 40 to 60 percent
for most, with only a 10 to 30 percent chance of a half inch. Given
the expanding drought in our region, we`ll take what we can get.

There will be some residual rain possible for Tuesday morning from
the Monday/Monday night system, but attention quickly turns to a
potent cold front progged to sweep through the area Tuesday night.
An attendant mid-level shortwave approaches the area from the
Pacific NW, supporting a cyclonic flow/cold air advection (CAA)
regime. This will spark a pattern change over the area, with much
colder and blustery conditions in the wake of the fropa. The NBM
supports high temperatures going from the 50s on Tuesday to the
middle to upper 30s on Wednesday, so it will feel noticeable colder
(just in time for busy Thanksgiving travel). The CAA will keep
breezy conditions in place, with steep low-level lapse rates and
enhanced momentum transport. ECMWF ensemble probabilities of gusts
30 mph or stronger is around 50 to 70% at noon on Wednesday, so it
will feel pretty brisk, too. In terms of precipitation, we`re not
expecting much, if anything, to develop, although there could be
some flurries or light snow showers that develop in the wake of the
boundary.

Thanksgiving into Friday: it will continue to be on the chilly side,
with low temperatures each morning in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Coupled with the winds, wind chills will fall to the teens area-
wide, and even some upper single digits are possible across our
north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. An area
of altocumulus clouds, with ceilings around 9 to 10 kft, will
continue to track eastward this afternoon, leading to mostly
sunny skies area-wide, although some high clouds could stream in
this afternoon. More noteworthy, breezy southwest winds are
expected, with gusts up to 25 knots possible, as a weak surface
front sweeps through the area. Winds will turn more westerly,
then northwesterly, behind the front tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz