722
FXUS63 KDVN 101955
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
155 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold again tonight with the potential for flurries across the
  area north of Interstate 80.

- A gradual warming trend begins on Tuesday and continues
  through Saturday.

- The weather pattern looks to turn more active next weekend.
  However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the
  evolution of a potential storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tonight: A shortwave is forecast to move through the flow tonight
leading to increased clouds.  CAMs appear to be overdoing
precipitation tonight associated with this shortwave as model
soundings show a substantial dry layer below 700 MB tonight
across western portions of the CWA. Model soundings are still
dry to the east but I did add flurries to the forecast after
midnight.

Tuesday: This shortwave will push a cold front across the area
during the day on Tuesday and turn winds from southerly during
the morning to the west by late afternoon. Winds will be gusty
through the day with speeds of 10 to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25
MPH. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast late morning
into the afternoon as this wave exits the area. Southerly winds
during the morning will pull warmer air northward with high
temperatures on Tuesday noticeably warmer than the past 48
hours. High temperatures are forecast to range from the lower
40s in far northwest Illinois to the lower 50s in northeast
Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A highly amplified pattern is in place across the CONUS through
the long term period with high pressure bringing quiet weather
to the area Wednesday through Friday, along with a gradual
warming trend. Models continue to forecast well above normal
temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Normal high temperatures
for the middle of November are in the mid to upper 40s across
the area. High temperatures Friday will be about 20 degrees
above normal, area-wide, then 25 degrees above normal on
Saturday. Saturdays high temperatures are currently within 1 to
3 degrees of records. The ECWMF EFI and Shift of Tails also
suggest near record high temperatures are possible on both days.


A complicated forecast for the upcoming weekend with split flow
across the CONUS. A northern jet stream system will emerge from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Saturday into Sunday as a
closed low moves into the southern Plains. This will push a cold
front across the area on Sunday. Currently, the models show the two
different branches of the jet stream unphased, which may limit
moisture transport northward into the area. Thus latest model
runs have the area dry through Sunday morning. The latest NBM
has widespread 30 to 45 percent chances of rain Saturday night
through Sunday with thunderstorms possible Saturday night.
However, the latest model runs keep the moisture and
precipitation with initial northern wave north and east of the
area, delaying precipitation until the arrival of forcing with
the southern wave on Sunday. Both the GEFS and EPS mean
precipitation show more widespread precipitation than the
operational models.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Eastern Iowa TAF sites sit on the western side of a storm system
that is slowly moving eastward across the southern Great Lakes.
MVFR ceilings are possible this afternoon at all TAF if the
current scattered deck at 3kft expands from its current coverage.
Northwest winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots will
turn to the west after 00 UTC and diminish to 5 knots overnight.
A fast moving storm system will bring clouds to the area
tonight. Winds will turn to the south after 9 UTC with speeds
increase to 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. For these
reasons, TAFs are expected to remain VFR through the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins