035
FXUS63 KDVN 201924
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
124 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stubborn cloud cover will continue through much of the short
  term. Fog is possible again tonight.

- Tight cutoff between rain and no rain across the far south
  will make forecast difficult Friday into Saturday morning.

- A quiet weekend under northwest flow will lead us into a
  potentially wet start to the new work week. Active and cooler
  weather to follow later next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Unfortunately, it looks like the clouds will remain in place
across the area through most of the short term period. Active
flow, with stationary/slow moving boundaries will keep
temperatures low and moisture in place across the area. A
shortwave is expected to approach the southern CWA tomorrow from
the SW. The better vorticity advection should remain south of
the area. At the same time, as this wave approaches the area,
surface winds will usher in drier air from the east into our
area.

Looking towards impacts, another decent setup for fog exists
tonight. The HREF is less bullish on potential dense fog,
however many of the recent HRRR runs and other CAMs show a
somewhat similar axis for dense fog tonight as this morning. At
this time, have not gone with any products as later shifts can
continue to monitor trends. Will mention in the HWO though and
in a weather story.

Looking towards the wave, this wave will help to bring drier air
into the area later tonight and into the morning. While this
should cut down on any fog potential, largescale ascent
continues to be forecast across the area, so clouds will be
hard to break out. Maybe some improvement in the bases of said
clouds may occur. What this dry air will do is tighten the QPF
gradient, where some areas will see decent rainfall and 10 miles
north may see nothing. The latest CAMs show showers embedded in
the overall flow. These showers stay south of the CWA. Guidance
has continued the trend of shifting these south, so confidence
is pretty high that most rain will remain south of us. Overall,
are far south could see a couple tenths of an inch of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The pattern remains quiet this weekend, ushering clearing skies
across the area. Into the holiday week, chances for precip
return to the area with temps cooling for the holiday. There are
two shortwaves that transverse the flow next week. The first one
Monday, and a second stronger one for midweek. There are timing
differences with the second one, which will affect overall
impacts across the area. We will have to watch this one as cold
air could be in place across the region. However, at this time
specifics are hard to come by based on the overall timing
differences.

This weekend looks like a great day to get outside and finish
any yard work left. Sun should return to the area with light
winds as high pressure is expected across the area. Highs in the
50s to near 60 are forecast. Dewpoints will be in the 40s,
meaning these temps will feel pleasant! Next weekend will
likely be much cooler than this, so be sure to enjoy this
weekend!

The pattern at the beginning of next week depicts a shortwave
moving across the central Plains toward us. At the same time, a
stronger wave/trof digs in across the western CWA. This pattern
will help bring moisture into the area from the Gulf. Depending
on the track of the first wave, we will likely see precip. Temps
are forecast to remain above freezing with this wave, so no snow
is expected.



&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Low IFR conditions are found over much of eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois, mainly with low CIGs around 200-500ft, and
visibility between 1/4 mile and 2 miles in dense fog, and some
light drizzle. Somewhat better, but still IFR conditions are
found farther south at MLI and BRL. These low conditions will
slowly improve this morning, but remain at least MVFR through
early afternoon. Tonight, models indicate improving conditions,
but I`ve gone with persistent MVFR cigs at all locations
tonight, as until this pattern breaks down, lower conditions are
expected during the overnight hours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs