161
FXUS63 KDVN 051744
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1144 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Noticeably warmer today with high temperatures in the upper
  20s to mid 30s. A storm system passing to the north may result
  in patchy freezing drizzle tonight north of I-80, mainly in
  northwest Illinois.

- Snow chances increasing Saturday night into Sunday morning,
  with 50-80% probabilities of 2+" north of Highway 34.

- Active northwest flow aloft is forecast to continue next week
  with the main storm track near the area. This will bring
  chances of precipitation to the area every 36 to 48 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A mid level shortwave is forecast to move across the area this
afternoon into tonight sending a cold front across the area. It
will be noticeably warmer today with high temperatures ranging
from the upper 20s along the Highway 20 corridor to the mid 30s
south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. Decided to add light
snow/flurries along the Highway 20 corridor this afternoon with
patchy freezing drizzle across northwest Illinois north of
Interstate 80 after 00 UTC on Saturday. Model soundings show a
loss of saturation in the -10 to -20C layer indicating limited
ice for snowflake production and abundant supercooled water for
patchy freezing drizzle. Chances are low in this occurring. If
freezing drizzle does occur, it should come to an end by 6 UTC
Saturday.

Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front with overnight
low temperatures ranging from the lower teens above zero to the
mid 20s in far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The storm track will remain over the area through the long term
period with a slight shifting of the jet stream with each
passing clipper system through the long term period. There is a
clipper roughly every 36 to 48 hours through the long term
period that will produce mainly light precipitation/snow chances
as they pass near the area. Ahead of each system, expect high
temperatures in the 30s with 20s in the wake of each storm
system.

The next of these clippers are forecast to arrive late Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Model soundings show fast top down
saturation with ample cold air and moisture for snowfall with
this storm system. Temperatures during the snowfall will be in
20s with a dry/fluffy snow expected. Winds will be relatively
light with east to northeast winds of 5 to 15 MPH through the
duration of the snow. In general, a widespread 1 to 3 inches of
snow is possible area wide with 2 to 4 inches possible west of
an Iowa City to Manchester line with the heavier snowfall from
this system falling in central Iowa. Currently, the probability
of at least 2 inches of snow is 60 to 80% north of a Fairfield
to Galesburg line to 30 to 50% to the south. The probability of
at least 4 inches of snow is is 30 to 50% north of a Fairfield
to Galesburg line with 20 to 30% to the south. Decided not to
issue a Winter Storm Watch with this forecast with 20 to 30%
probabilities of reaching Winter Storm Warning criteria of 6+
inches of snow at this time. Please continue to monitor the
forecasts with this storm system heading into the weekend. It
will be colder on Sunday with high temperatures in the upper
teens to upper 20s from north to south across the area. Low
temperatures on Sunday will be cold with low temperatures in the
single digits above zero and the potential for wind chills
approaching -10F.

Warmer air will be drawn northward on Tuesday and Wednesday
ahead of another clipper that is forecast to move across the
area for the middle of the week. This will result in high
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 30s. This system
will pass farther to the north than the one on Saturday night
and depending on the track may result in more of wintry mix
across the area but this will ultimately depend on the track of
this system. Colder air will spread back into the area behind
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front will move through this evening leading to MVFR
ceilings into Saturday morning. Moisture is limited with this
system, but still the potential for some patchy light snow or
freezing drizzle near DBQ this evening into tonight, along with
brief IFR. Winds will remain relatively light through the period
(under 15 kts).

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins/Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech