741
FXUS63 KDVN 030902
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
302 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend with plenty of wind expected through most of the
  work week.

- Chances for precipitation return late in the period.
  Confidence in amounts of rain is low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Early this morning a shortwave moved across the northern CWA.
This wave led to some sprinkles across the area. Behind this
wave, H5 convergence will lead to strong subsidence across the
area today and into tonight. This will lead to dew points
dropping well into the 20s. At the same time, the best
convergence aloft will move to the north and east of us,
brushing our northern IL counties. This will lead to winds
gusting 20 to 30 MPH.

Looking to a possible fire weather setup, GFDI for ag reaches
very high in Stephenson County for a couple of hours early this
afternoon. In order to get more widespread Very High GFDI for
ag, we would need to see gusts 10 kts higher along with
temperatures 5 to 8 degrees higher than forecast. Guidance does
not show this happening, so have backed off of the fire weather
mention for today. IF the forecast starts to go south, and we
see the values mentioned above starting, then we will need to
probably go with a SPS for very high fire danger for ag fields.

Tonight, we will be warmer as ridging builds into the area. Lows
in the 40s with quiet weather will set us up for highs reaching
the upper 60s to 70s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Long term forecast remains on track through the end of the week.
Quiet weather until Thursday night into Friday, when a series
waves moves through the area. The first wave looks to phase with
better moisture as it approaches the Mississippi River. Timing
differences with this wave could change the forecast for us. At
the current time, most guidance continues to show better QPF to
our east. Less than 0.10 inches of rain looks like a good
forecast to end the week.

Into the weekend, the active pattern continues. Another clipper
like wave will pull through the area. There is remarkable
agreement between the spectral models for this far out with the
overall look of the wave. This will be the next chance for us to
see precip. Overall moisture is lower than the system on Friday,
but there is a good shot of cold air behind it. The NBM has some
snow mixed in with the rain Saturday night into Sunday. So this
is something to watch going through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a slow wind
shift being the main impact to aviation. No sig wx impacts
expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs