


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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677 FXUS63 KDVN 141047 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 547 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Passing system will bring light precipitation to locations north of Interstate 80, with those south likely to remain dry. - Temperatures today will likely be the coolest of the work week, trending upwards into the mid-upper 70s mid-late week. Some might even see low 80s on Friday. - A larger system will pass through the Upper Midwest Friday night through Saturday, bringing the potential for widespread rainfall and embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Upper ridge remains situated over the Central US, with our area falling on the northern part of the ridge, seeing upper level westerly flow. A weak wave emerges off of the Central Rockies this morning, passing through the Upper Mississippi River Valley this evening and tonight. Ahead of that, we will continue to see the influence of a slow moving boundary, which will help pool moisture over the area. This will still be relatively low moisture, which should prevent any rainfall through the day. Rather, we will see cloud cover through the day due to this. We will see a wide range in temperatures through the area today, owing to the cloud cover. Areas under than clouds should remain in the 60s, with those in our south seeing a little more breaks in the clouds reaching the low-mid 70s. As we go later into the day, moisture will increase, resulting from better forcing with the approaching wave. Thus, we will start to see precipitation chances increase through the afternoon and early evening (15-30% chance). After sunset, we will see the best moisture move in, which should allow us to saturate, largely in areas north of Interstate 80. Thus, best chances for precipitation will be overnight tonight (40-60% chance), but accumulation will be low, generally around 0.10". Areas south of Interstate 80 are likely to remain dry, or see drizzles. Temperatures will moderate in the 50s tonight, owing to the remaining cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The aforementioned ridge will remain overhead for the next couple of days, with a deepening wave over the Rockies. This will usher in llvl southwesterly flow for the second half of the week, with the bulk of it being seen on Friday. Not only will this increase moisture throughout the area, but strong warm advection will result in above normal temperatures working into the area once again. Granted, we are not talking oppressive heat. Normal temperatures during this time of the year are in the low 60s, with us currently forecasting mid-upper 70s and possibly low 80s for some on Friday! Deep wave ejects off of the Rockies Friday into Saturday, passing northeast through the Upper Midwest. This will push the ridge east of the area Friday into Saturday, dragging a cold front through the area Saturday. Moisture will be in place ahead of the front, resulting from strong warm advection, which will allow for the potential for widespread rainfall. Granted, we are not expecting heavy rainfall. Rather, we can expect a much needed rainfall, but will generally be <0.50". Given how dry it has been, this will we a welcome sight. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible as well. Severe weather is not expected a this time, with better forcing and environment for such south of the area. Behind this cold front, we are in for quite the change on Sunday. Sunday will feature seasonal temperatures and breeziness, with mostly clear skies. So, while that will be normal for the time of the year, it will feel starkly different than the above normal temperatures that we have been seeing. Warmer clothing might be necessary, especially during the evening/night. Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to remain relatively active. Thus, temperatures will be up and down through the upcoming work week. Although, there remains some uncertainty overall due to long term guidance not being in agreement on the overall pattern. CPC guidance favors above normal temperatures once again, with low-end favorability for above normal precipitation. Too soon to pinpoint when the next best chance for precipitation will be beyond Friday night and Saturday AM. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for much, if not all of the TAF period. A storm system will approach the area today, with light rain impacting areas north of Interstate 80 after 00-03z. Onset of rainfall continues to slowly trend later. The timing of this rainfall is important, as it may introduce MVFR cigs. Although, confidence remains low on timing and spatial coverage. Thus, opted to leave mention out of the TAFs right now. With the system approaching, we will be left with a scattered-overcast deck through much of the day, with cigs around 4000-6000 ft. Otherwise, we will see a northeasterly breeze around 10 KTs through much of the TAF period as well. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel