627
FXUS63 KDVN 071955
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
155 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weekend storm system will bring the first rain/snow mix to the
  area along/north of I-80. The warm ground will prevent
  accumulation for much of the area.

- A brief period of much colder than normal temperatures will be
  seen Sunday through Monday. Snow showers or flurries are
  possible Saturday night into Sunday.

- A warming trend resulting in temperatures going above normal
  will be seen for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A shortwave trough currently over north-central Montana and
southern Alberta per GOES mid-level WV imagery, will quickly
dive to the southeast reaching eastern Iowa and NW Illinois on
Saturday. The 500mb vorticity max and attendant weak surface low
are both forecast to track to our south across northern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Large-scale ascent from upper
jet divergence and PVA downstream of the trough axis will lead
to precipitation overspreading the outlook area during the mid
morning to early afternoon (moving in from west to east).

Expect rain as the dominant precipitation type for Saturday
morning with forecast max wet-bulb temperatures and near
surface air temperatures both above freezing. Forecast soundings
show cooling in the 925-850mb layer through the afternoon, with
areas across the west and north falling below freezing aloft.
This could lead to a period of a rain/snow mix or even all snow.
However, steadier bands of precipitation that would aid in
cooling the lower atmospheric profile to support more snow will
be offset by near surface air temperatures holding in the mid to
upper 30s across the west/northwest (west of a line from
Freeport to Iowa City). Warmer conditions in the upper 30s to
upper 40s are expected to persist through the afternoon further
to the east, where only rain is expected. Overall this looks
like a marginal event for any snow accumulations beyond a
dusting on elevated/grassy surfaces which would be most likely
to occur after sunset as temperatures eventually fall below
freezing. Additionally, the majority of models have the
intensity of the precipitation waning through the mid/late
afternoon across the northwest outlook area, which would suggest
the p-type to stay as mainly rain during this time (possibly
mixed with snow). A period of steadier snow is possible late
evening into the early nighttime across far NW Illinois as
colder air works in from the north with lingering precipitation
in the area. NBM probabilities for at least some measurable
snow are between 40-60% in this area.

For late Saturday night, increasing low-level cold air advection
coupled with cyclonic flow aloft may result in scattered snow
showers or flurries, which could stick to the grass (dusting
possible) as temps fall into the 20s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Sunday/Sunday night

The core of the cold air settles over the area on Sunday with
breezy conditions. The combination of the cold air along with
the upper low and disturbances rotating around it sets the stage
for isolated to low end scattered snow showers, mainly east of
the Mississippi.

The model consensus partially shows this with 20 percent chances for
snow showers in a mainly diurnal trend east of the Mississippi
Sunday afternoon/evening.

Monday through Thursday

Monday will continue to be much colder than normal as the cold upper
low moves into the eastern Great Lakes.

Starting Tuesday and continuing the remainder of the week, an upper
level high will build into the Midwest bringing a warming trend that
will eventually result in above normal temperatures. Minor upper
level disturbances will be moving through the area with only an
increase in clouds to mark their passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Breezy west winds expected today with prevailing VFR. Winds
will decrease this evening into tonight with a continuation of
the dry/quiet weather. Heading into Saturday morning, ceilings
will drop to MVFR as a storm system approaches the area. Light
rain is likely to reach CID/DBQ during the mid/late morning
period and MLI/BRL shortly thereafter. IFR/LIFR for all the
terminals is expected to hold off until beyond the end of this
TAF cycle.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...08/Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech