058
FXUS63 KDVN 081842
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
142 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost is possible again tonight, mainly for areas
  along and north of Interstate 80

- Slight chance (20-30%) of very light rain late Thursday/Friday;
  most areas to remain dry

- Prolonged period of above normal temperatures and mostly dry
  conditions this weekend and into much of next week; drought
  conditions to persist or worsen next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A large area of high pressure will continue to loiter over the
western Great Lakes tonight, and gradually shift to the east on
Thursday. This, along with upper-level ridging, will keep our skies
clear through at least Thursday afternoon.

The main focus for the short-term continues to be on frost potential
for tonight. The ECMWF ensembles continue to indicate the
aforementioned high pressure system will only strengthen tonight, and
with clear skies and light winds, this should support another
chilly night via radiational cooling. We expect tonight should
generally be cooler than this morning as the surface high
approaches the local region, so we have gone on the colder side
of the model spectrum (near the 25th percentile), resulting in
low temperatures in the middle 30s northeast to near 40 to the
south. Some patchy frost is possible tonight, especially for
locations along and north of Interstate 80 where temperatures
closer to the middle 30s are most likely. Due to the patchy
nature, we will hold off on any frost headlines at this time.

The high pressure system will continue to shift eastward on
Thursday, resulting in southerly return flow and slight warm air
advection to help temperatures warm to the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Thursday Night-Saturday...a compact upper low will dive southeast
across the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the region. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, moisture will be limited
as shown by 1000-500mb RH progs and forecast soundings. In
addition, better forcing will be displaced to our north and
southwest, so while we still have 20-30 percent PoPs, it may end
up just being sprinkles or a very light shower. Not what we
need to help the increasing drought conditions. An interesting
note with the 12z guidance is the NAM has come in with a slower
and deeper 500mb low that lingers over Lake Michigan on
Saturday. If this verifies, then Saturday may be cooler with
more clouds especially in northern IL.

Saturday Night-Wednesday...500mb ridge to slide east over the local
area while the aforementioned upper low interacts with another
system near the Carolina coast. This ridge will then build across
the central CONUS early next week (592 dam centered over Dallas)
and, unfortunately, keep any remnants of Priscilla to our west.
This will also result in another prolonged period of warm and
mostly dry conditions, with well above normal highs in the
upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the 50s. The latest 6-10 Day
temperature outlook from CPC has very high probabilities (>70%)
of above normal temps for the Oct 13th-17th timeframe. Those
wanting consistent Fall conditions will need to wait a little
longer to break out the jackets.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period as an
area of high pressure remains anchored to the western Great
Lakes. Northeasterly winds this afternoon will weaken overnight
and gradually turn more southwesterly for Thursday, remaining
around 5 to 10 knots during the daylight hours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Schultz