109
FXUS63 KDVN 122340
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
540 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and warming conditions still on track into the
  start of the weekend, with temperatures as much as 15-20+
  degrees above normal Friday into Saturday when some near
  record warm lows and highs are possible.

- The next main chance for a more organized and measurable
  precipitation is not expected until early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 149 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Tonight...Elongated sfc ridge noted out acrs the eastern plains and
MO RVR Valley will slide this way through Thu morning. Thus the
gusty northwest winds will subside and trend light and variable by
mid evening. Upper air analysis was indicating a 125+ KT upper jet
streaking down acrs MN into NW IL tonight, which will help shuttle
the upstream cirrus seen now acrs the northwestern High Plains and
southern SD down acrs the local area tonight. It will probably vary
in opaqueness and thus allow for some aurora viewing, but hunches
are tonight will be a disappointment as compared to what occurred
last night anyway. A few CAMs continue to hint at some spotty fog in
light return flow convergent zone acrs portions of southeast IA into
west central IL toward dawn, but boundary layer(BL) dryness in place
make a lean toward no fog mention for now. Lows generally in the low
to mid 30s, with a few upper 20s possible.

Thursday...A backside of passing sfc ridge axis day, with southeast
to southerly sfc winds helping the warming cause with highs ranging
from the mid 50s in the far northeast, to the low to mid 60s in the
southwest. South sfc winds maintaining and continued CI streaking down
acrs the area around northern plains upper ridge should make for a
milder night Thu night with lows in the mid 30s in the northwest to
mid 40s in the far south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Friday thru Sunday...Latest suite of ensembles suggest upper wave
energy digging into the northwest high plains in northern stream
flow well into Friday night. Sfc reflection low pressure and frontal
system then to take shape and develop acrs the upper midwest into
the weekend as well. As it does, Friday looks to trend into a full
blown warm sector day ahead of the LLVL frontogenesis that will
arrive on Sat. Taking into account the time of year, projected mean
H85 and H925 MB temps support highs well in the 70s. But mixing
depth with building inversion aloft above H9 MB at question and will
maintain the temp range of low 60s north, to the low 70s south. Will
have to watch FROPA trends on SAt, but Friday may end up being the
warmest of the stretch. General ensemble FROPA timing by midday on
Sat and possible cloud cover may be a warming limitation, but
renewed mixing post-frontally with a bit of a cooler air lag still
supports highs in the mid 60s to low 70s acrs the southeastern half
of the DVN CWA and thus still near record highs for some climate
sites for Nov 15th. Besides a few passing light showers or sprinkles
skirting the northeastern CWA post-frontally Sat afternoon, it still
appears to be a mainly dry FROPA. Then a breezy cool down for SAt
night into Sunday, but Sunday highs in the 50s still above normal.

Monday and Tuesday...Our next chance of measurable precipitation is
not slated to arrive until Monday or Tuesday, attendant to the
shortwave energy ejecting from the southwest. Forecast confidence is
low however, as there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the
timing, strength and track of the shortwave. In fact, WPC cluster
analysis from 12z Tuesday offered very good agreement between the 4
clusters keeping the shortwave over the Great Basin area through 00z
Wednesday. Thus, if anything we could see the precipitation chances
being delayed or pushed back even further toward mid to possibly
even late next week. That said, some of the deterministic medium
range guidance and ensemble means of CMC, GFS and ECMWF offer a lead
wave ejecting out early next week potentially not being resolved
well by cluster analysis due to lower amplitude nature. So, for now
we`ll continue to maintain the broad 30-50% PoPs Monday into
Tuesday, but will obviously need to keep an eye on trends in the
days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

High pressure is forecast to shift eastward to the south of
eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through the TAF period.
West winds are forecast to weaken this evening and become light
and variable tonight. After 15 UTC, winds are forecast to turn
to the south and increase to 5 to 10 knots. Mid and high clouds
are forecast to move across the area tonight with conditions
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12/McClure
AVIATION...Cousins