051
FNUS21 KWNS 041653
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

Current surface observations show south to southwest winds already
gusting up to 40-45 mph across portions of Central Plains in
response to deepening lee trough farther north across NB/SD. Deep
southwesterly flow will only increase through the day as a mid-level
trough translates eastward over the southern Rockies and High Plains
this afternoon. Mainly cloud free skies will hasten boundary layer
mixing across eastern CO, western KS and southwestern NE where
sustained south/southwest winds of 25-35 mph and relative humidity
of around 20% will align with drier fine fuels to support elevated
fire weather threat. Relative humidity will be higher in the 25-35%
range across portions of the Midwest where deeper boundary layer
moisture exists, although south winds of 20-30 mph should still
provide for an elevated fire weather threat where dry and curing
fuels align, particularly across southeastern ND, southwestern MN,
and northwestern IA.

..Williams.. 10/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025/

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will rapidly eject over the central Rockies into
the northern/central Plains today and tonight. Strong southwesterly
flow aloft will overspread a dry and warm air mass south and east of
a deepening surface low over the central Plains. Warm temperatures,
strong southerly winds and dry conditions will support some elevated
fire-weather potential.

...Central and Northern Plains...
South of the intensifying surface low and trailing cold front, gusty
southerly winds 20-30 mph are likely through the afternoon over
portions of SD into NE and northern CO. Unusually warm temperatures
this afternoon along with downsloping should bolster low afternoon
RH. This strong mixing should limit surface moisture with RH values
of 15-25% across the central Plains. As winds increase, continued
curing of fine fuels will likely support several hours of elevated
fire-weather potential.

...Midwest...
Farther east, diurnal humidity decreases will be more modest into
the Midwest where low-level moisture advection is expected to be
stronger. However, very dry surface conditions over preceding weeks
have resulted in plentiful and dry fine fuels outside of recent
localized precipitation. The increasingly strong southerly winds
with gusts of 25-30 mph will support some elevated fire-weather
potential this afternoon despite the poor overlap with lower RH.

...Southern Plains...
South of the surface low, a trailing lee trough will bolster surface
winds over parts of eastern CO, western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles.
While fuels here are not as receptive and RH values higher, some
drying and gusty winds around 15-25 mph are expected. This could
support some localized fire-weather concerns within locally drier
fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$