952
ACUS01 KWNS 191241
SWODY1
SPC AC 191240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across the southern
Plains into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the lower
CO River Valley and Southwest today into tonight. Enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across much of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity through the period. A
moist low-level airmass in place across south/central TX this
morning will advance slowly northward across north TX and OK/AR in
tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur
this evening and overnight across west TX as large-scale ascent
preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually overspreads the
southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the day casts
significant uncertainty on convective development across the warm
sector until later this evening.

Still, it appears likely that thunderstorms will gradually increase
in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the
southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest
low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a
developing dryline across west TX may also aid in convective
development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate
instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable
thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should
promote organized updrafts.

Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to
develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where
convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for
occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also
exist. With time, updraft interactions/mergers should result in a
messy convective mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the
north of the warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail
may persist for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period
with this activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the
southern Plains and parts of the Ozarks.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as
the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Weak instability may
develop across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM and vicinity with
filtered daytime heating. While small hail could occur with the
stronger cores that develop this afternoon across this region,
modest low-level moisture and buoyancy should limit the overall
severe threat.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/19/2025

$$