102
ACUS01 KWNS 160050
SWODY1
SPC AC 160049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the upper Ohio
Valley through late evening.

00 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing eastward
across the Midwest/OH River Valley. Recent radar imagery shows the
initial development of weak thunderstorms along/ahead of the front,
which are expected to increase in coverage through 04 UTC across
portions of the upper OH Valley. VWP observations are currently
sampling 40-50 knot winds within the lowest kilometer, which may
manifest at the surface as strong, damaging wind gusts within the
deeper convective cores. Additionally, the strong low-level flow is
supporting 0-1 km SRH values on the order of 400 m2/2. While
typically a concerning value, the meager buoyancy in place across
the region (MLCAPE of around 150-200 J/kg per recent ILN and PIT
soundings) and residual capping near 750 mb should modulate overall
updraft intensities and the potential for a tornado threat. CAM
guidance seems to support this idea with negligible updraft speed/UH
signals noted among recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs. As such, the
predominant threat should remain damaging gusts through the 04 to 06
UTC period.

..Moore.. 11/16/2025

$$