398
ACUS01 KWNS 061557
SWODY1
SPC AC 061555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
organized severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the
northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern
Plains.  Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front,
coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal
CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM.  This will support the
development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately
behind the front.  Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a
low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL
into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the
risk.  Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where
steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level
winds will limit convective organization.

Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but
weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low.

..Hart/Barnes.. 10/06/2025

$$