168
ACUS01 KWNS 221236
SWODY1
SPC AC 221234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.

...TX to SE States...
A zonal flow pattern is present today over the eastern half of the
CONUS, with a surface cold front moving across the TN Valley into
the Carolinas.  A few thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of
the front from east TX into much of the southeast states today and
tonight, but the risk of severe activity is low.

...Southwest States...
A compact upper low will track eastward across Baja California this
afternoon, with an associated mid-level cold pocket affecting
northwest Mexico and the Four-Corners states.  Model guidance agrees
that scattered thunderstorms will affect these areas by late
afternoon and through the evening.  A few of the HREF members
indicate some risk of strong storms with small hail and gusty winds
over southeast AZ.  However, forecast soundings do not appear
sufficient to warrant severe probabilities at time.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/22/2025

$$