700
ACUS01 KWNS 050521
SWODY1
SPC AC 050520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast
today.

...Southeast...

Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the
next 24hr as strong west-southwesterly flow will extend across the
Gulf States. Broad weak height falls are expected across much of the
central/eastern CONUS as the mean upper trough position should
remain centered over the MS Valley. Given this flow regime, surface
cold front over GA/AL/FL Panhandle is expected to advance slowly
into the northern FL Peninsula where it will encounter somewhat
higher moisture content. Even so, convection is expected to struggle
to develop ahead of the wind shift, so the primary concern for
lighting will be with post frontal elevated convection. Forecast
soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability across this region,
and the midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep. At this
time it appears the risk of severe is too marginal to warrant severe
probabilities.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/05/2025

$$