039
ACUS01 KWNS 232001
SWODY1
SPC AC 232000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
severe gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
west Texas.

...20Z Update...
Both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly
northwestward in the TX South Plains. Here, continued diurnal
heating amid middle 50s dewpoints is yielding sufficient
surface-based buoyancy for any left-mover supercells that may evolve
(posing a risk of severe hail). Additionally, a significant-hail
area was added over the western part of the Slight Risk. Given the
expectation for discrete storms in this area, a long/mostly straight
hodograph and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE should support hail to around
2 inches in diameter with any longer-lived supercells. Finally, the
5-percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward. Despite
increasing boundary-layer static stability, gradual upscale growth
and a focused/eastward-translating low-level jet should allow for
embedded severe gusts within the line into the early morning hours.
For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2218.

..Weinman.. 11/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/

...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.

Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.

$$